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Seeded draft 2022

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Tomorrow's Matchups:

 

#5 Houston (5, 24.10, Huckleberry - 59.91%) vs. #4 Illinois (4, 11.83, Capn81 - 40.09%)
#7 Ohio St. (7, 18.78, Capn81 - 36.73%) vs. #2 Villanova (2, 9.67, shadow_operative - 63.27%)
#7 Michigan St. (7, 16.48, Wulaw Horn - 34.94%) vs. #2 Duke (2, 8.83, Capn81 - 65.06%)
#11 Iowa St. (11, 30.42, Wulaw Horn - 46.26%) vs. #3 Wisconsin (3, 9.34, Prepuce of Doom - 53.74%)
#11 Notre Dame (11, 21.32, Prepuce of Doom - 27.80%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (3, 15.04, henrygandorf - 72.20%)
#10 Miami (FL) (10, 18.44, shadow_operative - 21.85%) vs. #2 Auburn (2, 12.93, Huckleberry - 78.15%)
#6 Texas (6, 24.90, henrygandorf - 42.75%) vs. #3 Purdue (3, 17.13, Bartles - 57.25%)
#9 TCU (9, 16.41, shadow_operative - 21.95%) vs. #1 Arizona (1, 6.78, Prepuce of Doom - 78.05%)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 98, 146.24
shadow_operative, 57, 114.12
henrygandorf, 33, 69.53
Wulaw Horn, 31, 59.85
Huckleberry, 26, 58.75
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 51.17
Bartles, 15, 36.93
TXSooner518, 15, 21.44

Houston's win over Illinois slows the Capn81 train just a bit. Not enough to help me be competitive but maybe helps keep him within Derka range.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Ohio State's loss also brings Capn81 back a little closer to the pack.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 98, 132.23
shadow_operative, 61, 118.38
henrygandorf, 33, 69.51
Wulaw Horn, 31, 59.83
Huckleberry, 26, 58.10
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 51.02
Bartles, 15, 36.92
TXSooner518, 15, 21.44
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18917

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16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.12
shadow_operative, 61, 118.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 72.83
henrygandorf, 39, 73.23
Huckleberry, 26, 58.13
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 34.39
Bartles, 15, 36.61
TXSooner518, 15, 21.14

Wulaw with the Cyclone bump.

My only team left.  Need them to get to at least the final 4 and have the rest be chalk. Even that might not be enough. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Late tonight I rerun the ratings and transition to posting each participant's # of paths to victory and win probability. Can't do that from the beginning because of the number of possible permutations, but I have a spreadsheet that calculates the scores for each of the 32,768 possible permutations of the Sweet 16 forward.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.50
shadow_operative, 81, 149.90
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.96
henrygandorf, 39, 74.14
Huckleberry, 26, 47.70
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 35.22
Bartles, 15, 36.65
TXSooner518, 15, 21.15

Auburn loss wrecked me, but we have a new EV leader @shadow_operative with the Miami win. I probably need a Houston national championship to win the contest.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Yeah a Houston title gets me to 111 points. I would also need all three of Capn's remaining teams to lose in the Sweet 16 (Michigan, St. Peter's, and Duke). then have UCLA beat UNC for Derka. Shit, getting into permutations I might already be eliminated too. We will see later tonight.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Three participants have been eliminated

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 52.33% (12,726)
Capn81 - 35.98% (16,315)
Wulaw Horn - 9.09% (3,209)
Tie - 1.24% (228)
Huckleberry - 0.84% (60)
henrygandorf - 0.52% (230)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 117.66
shadow_operative, 87, 152.69
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.47
henrygandorf, 39, 58.65
TXSooner518, 27, 38.27
Huckleberry, 26, 45.92
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 36.20
Bartles, 21, 39.99

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 70.20% (4,514)
Capn81 - 15.92% (2,527)
Wulaw Horn - 11.26% (1,004)
Huckleberry - 1.35% (30)
henrygandorf - 0.94% (87)
Tie - 0.31% (26)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 108, 125.87
shadow_operative, 87, 152.85
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.48
henrygandorf, 39, 45.91
TXSooner518, 27, 38.48
Huckleberry, 26, 45.94
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 36.21
Bartles, 21, 40.08

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 65.91% (2,176)
Capn81 - 21.91% (1,390)
Wulaw Horn - 10.69% (492)
Huckleberry - 0.77% (10)
Tie - 0.55% (16)
henrygandorf - 0.09% (8)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 108, 125.90
shadow_operative, 87, 153.24
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.63
Huckleberry, 41, 67.57
henrygandorf, 39, 45.96
TXSooner518, 27, 38.51
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 31.69
Bartles, 21, 40.12

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 65.53% (1,085)
Capn81 - 20.91% (691)
Wulaw Horn - 10.72% (246)
Huckleberry - 1.60% (10)
Tie - 1.03% (10)
henrygandorf - 0.09% (4)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 153, 175.93
shadow_operative, 87, 164.23
Wulaw Horn, 53, 81.42
Huckleberry, 41, 66.69
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 28, 34.31
TXSooner518, 27, 39.26
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Capn81 - 51.66% (299)
shadow_operative - 42.59% (173)
Wulaw Horn - 3.93% (36)
Tie - 0.73% (2)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

The two tie possibilities are between Derka and Capn, of course.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 153, 182.41
shadow_operative, 141, 203.57
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 66.96
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 28, 34.62
TXSooner518, 27, 40.37
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 68.57% (70)
Capn81 - 31.43% (58)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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Poster, Current Score, EV
shadow_operative, 181, 210.12
Capn81, 161, 170.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 41.00
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 36.91
TXSooner518, 27, 27.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 85.04% (7)
Capn81 - 14.96% (1)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

Duke over Villanova in the championship game gives the title to @Capn81. Any other result gives it to @shadow_operative

 

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 20856

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17 hours ago, Huckleberry said:
Poster, Current Score, EV
shadow_operative, 181, 210.12
Capn81, 161, 170.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 41.00
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 36.91
TXSooner518, 27, 27.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 85.04% (7)
Capn81 - 14.96% (1)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

Duke over Villanova in the championship game gives the title to @Capn81. Any other result gives it to @shadow_operative

 

Shouldn't that be dook over Kansas gives Capn the title, and any other outcome favors Derka?

If it's Villanova against dook in the CG, then Derka will collect another 10 points from Villanova which keeps it at a 20 point difference going into the CG which dook won't eclipse even with a win. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32144

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1 hour ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Shouldn't that be dook over Kansas gives Capn the title, and any other outcome favors Derka?

If it's Villanova against dook in the CG, then Derka will collect another 10 points from Villanova which keeps it at a 20 point difference going into the CG which dook won't eclipse even with a win. 

That's correct. I read from the wrong line in my sheet. 

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Capn81

Capn81 372

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Honestly?  All love to Capn but Derka deserves to win this one for picking UNC 1st with the #3 overall pick. That was maybe the best first round pick we’ve ever had in this thing.  Congrats to him. 

Yeah but he passed on St. Peter’s six straight rounds.
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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15931

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honestly it feels to me (and i assume everyone else) like Duke over KU is the most likely outcome, but i was already rooting hard against that anyway, so it doesn't change anything for me. it's still fuck duke, like it's always been. capn i hope you feel dirty rooting for Coach Stan Valchek and the mighty blue devils. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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Capn81

Capn81 372

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honestly it feels to me (and i assume everyone else) like Duke over KU is the most likely outcome, but i was already rooting hard against that anyway, so it doesn't change anything for me. it's still fuck duke, like it's always been. capn i hope you feel dirty rooting for Coach Stan Valchek and the mighty blue devils. 

Haha, I don’t!
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18917

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Seriously though- what did we say- $20?  $25?  Seems like it’s always a little different. Nobody has ever not been paid on one of these things. Let us know if there’s any issues. 
is that Venmo?  Or pay pal?  Once upon a time I wrote Big Orange a check and mailed it- so apologies if that’s a dumb question but I’m not typically an internet pay guy until very recently. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15931

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with this victory, i become the first surly member to have won the surly fantasy baseball league (twice), the surly roto league, the surly fantasy hoops league (countless times), the surly bracket challenge, and now, the surly seeded draft. you know it's true what they say- if you never work, and have nothing but free time on your hands, and spend all of that free time online and watching sports, then you too can be pretty good at fantasy sports. 

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 20856

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18 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

with this victory, i become the first surly member to have won the surly fantasy baseball league (twice), the surly roto league, the surly fantasy hoops league (countless times), the surly bracket challenge, and now, the surly seeded draft. you know it's true what they say- if you never work, and have nothing but free time on your hands, and spend all of that free time online and watching sports, then you too can be pretty good at fantasy sports. 

I have already begun the paperwork to get you onto the next Wheaties box - keep an eye on your mail! 

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