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Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread


bolverk

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

House seats being 3 (R Kevin Kiley, R+4), 9 (D Josh Harder, D+5), 13 (R John Duarte, D+4), 22 (R David Valadao, D+5), 27 (R Mike Garcia, D+4), 40 (R Young Kim, R+2), 41 (R Ken Calvert, R+3), 45 (R Michelle Steel, D+2), 47 (OPEN, D+3) and 49 (D Mike Levin, D+3)

 

Edited by Js1
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Tuning into a live CLE on YouTube and one of the criminal defense attorneys doing the presentation literally just got called to defend Cuellar in the Southern District

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Not sure where else to put this. Regardless of how you feel about Andrew Yang, the points aren’t particularly controversial and the end gives some reason for optimism in US politics.
 

 

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Posted (edited)

Maybe. But he can still get all the way fucked and stay fucked. That being said, I agree. I've long contended that fixing gerrymandering and our voting rules/laws will fix 75% of the problems in America, given enough time.

Edited by SydneyCarton
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42 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Maybe. But he can still get all the way fucked and stay fucked. That being said, I agree. I've long contended that fixing gerrmandering and our voting rules/laws will fix 75% of the problems in America, given enough time.

This.

At this point a vote for anyone but Joe Biden might as well be a vote for Trump. We gotta fix this femoral artery laceration before we worry about the broken leg. 

(Yes, I know he's not running for President this year, but this applies to any of these third party fringe guys)

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This.

At this point a vote for anyone but Joe Biden might as well be a vote for Trump. We gotta fix this femoral artery laceration before we worry about the broken leg. 

(Yes, I know he's not running for President this year, but this applies to any of these third party fringe guys)

I mean, no one is voting for him, and he's not running. He's literally in Canada doing a TED talk. That being said, if Biden wins, and the dems get both chambers, even if it's by 1 in the house and a tie in the senate, Biden needs to fucking suspend the fillibuster and push through a national voting rights act that fixes gerrymandering and implements ranked choice voting federally and removes state restrictions on that shit. 

Honestly, states can run their own fucking elections, but part of the problem in the US is that no one understands the different rules in each different state, and this creates confusion that GOP capitalzes on to scream FRAUD. I had one preson, intelligent and succesful, insist there were regularities and we should have investigated the major vote shifts while he was asleep. IT'S BEEN THAT WAY FOREVER YOU JUST NEVER PAID ATTENTION. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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All above points, perfectly logical and plausible.  But unless you guys can hold your breath until 2032...don't get too excited.  We got 8 more years of turbulence to deal with until the lines are redrawn in 2031 census with new demography and uptick in voter registration.  Until then, it's simply defeat Trump, watch him die, handle the batshit MAGA deniers, and white-knuckle our way back to a stable nation.  All else is commentary...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Biden needs to fucking suspend the fillibuster

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

Edited by Js1
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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

I don’t think biden would even push. Or Schumer. And yes I realize Biden doesn’t have the power to do it unilaterally. But he’s the leader of the party. 

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18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

Yeah, y'all need to grasp that the Class I may still very well go R +1-3.  But you got a decent shot at the House.  Obviously the most important thing is to hold the Oval Office.  2026 likely tilts back the Senate Class II to your party, but who gives a shit if Trump is back in office?  2028, even with a Biden re-election in 2024 could still spell a GOP/MAGA-acolyte type POTUS as the extreme wing exhales its dying breath.  But keep some of them at home, you ain't converting anybody in the next few years.  But if you can still juggle both chambers and keep the White House.  That offsets a SCOTUS composition that is not going anywhere before 2031 save for maybe a Alito or Sotomayor early death.  Demography, census, and new districts in 2032 election cycle should do most of the heavy lifting for the Democrats.  As will disenfranchised/aged MAGA voters.   You're not winning over anybody with voter turnout efforts this year.  It's just about making just enough MAGA voters to stay home out of shame (though many will vote just to secretly spite us).  But come to terms with the fact that there's a 1/3 chance, perhaps higher than the GOP holds the house, wins a few Class I seats to take back the Senate, keeps SCOTUS obviously, and somehow through EC magic---gets back into the West Wing.  2026-2030 will course correct into a wonderful setup in 2023.  But those first two years are going to be a fucking disaster.  See y'all in 8.5 years....

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's a win, but there's some weirdness with the liberals opposed to this decision that my tired brain isn't quite processing. 

 

Supreme Court orders Louisiana to use congressional map with additional Black district in 2024 vote

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Wednesday ordered Louisiana to hold congressional elections in 2024 using a House map with a second mostly Black district, despite a lower-court ruling that called the map an illegal racial gerrymander.

The order allows the use of a map that has majority Black populations in two of the state’s six congressional districts, potentially boosting Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the closely divided House of Representatives in the 2024 elections.

The justices acted on emergency appeals filed by the state’s top Republican elected officials and Black voters who said they needed the high court’s intervention to avoid confusion as the elections approach. About a third of Louisiana is Black.

The Supreme Court’s order does not deal with a lower-court ruling that found the map relied too heavily on race. Instead, it only prevents yet another new map from being drawn for this year’s elections.

The Supreme Court could decide at a later date to hear arguments over the decision striking down the Louisiana map.

The court’s three liberal justices dissented from Wednesday’s order. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote that the judges who struck down the latest map should have had the chance to produce a new map before the high court intervened.

Continued at link

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6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's a win, but there's some weirdness with the liberals opposed to this decision that my tired brain isn't quite processing. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Thanks. That's what I gathered, but I'm still having trouble grasping the problematic precedent. Don't go trying to dig it up, though, as I'm sure it'd be a futile effort right now.

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Thanks. That's what I gathered, but I'm still having trouble grasping the problematic precedent. Don't go trying to dig it up, though, as I'm sure it'd be a futile effort right now.

It’s the Purcell principle - SCOTUS shouldn’t make big changes within a certain time of an election because it confuses voters and make things difficult for elections officials and candidates 

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Gerrymandered Beth Van Duyne (TX24 - Lake Highlands to fucking Ft. Worth), Christian ho and hypocrite, coveting her neighbors husband.  Which arguably might not be a sin if you're a strict bible reader.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13429341/Who-Beth-Van-Duyne-Texas-GOP-Rep-53-seen-holding-hands-table-Georgia-Republican-Rich-McCormick-files-divorce-oncologist-wife.html

I think all it will take is a good cry at her local non-dom church to get her back in good graces with the Southlake types.

Sam's got no chance but I threw him a double sawbuck because I like tilting at windmills.

https://sameppler.com/

 

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