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Posted

Just like the sirens on the Pedernales, which are specifically designed to give people close to the river advance warning so they can leave the low area and get to higher ground.
BTW, I have years of involvement with Mo Ranch. “Get to higher ground” is 100% one of the protocols. Warning helps you do that.

I'm scheduled to be on the Presbytery call this Saturday. Mo Ranch is on the agenda, so I’ll probably get a briefing.
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Posted
52 minutes ago, C-Man said:

My wife said our close friend whose son goes to La Junta, and had just come home the week before the flood, said he received something from La Junta that said they would not be operating for at least the next two summers.

Our son was just 1b at La Junta and we haven’t received any updates but the one just posted.  I think La Junta could get through a few summers with tents if they need to.

In regards to Ozark, my niece and nephew go there and also love it.  Unfortunately, not a fit for us because it’s too Baptist cozy.

We’re going to go Waldemar/La Junta, Cheley, or say fuck camps, let’s do a big family trip.

Posted

My apologies if this is was discussed. I missed it. The burnt orange tie Michael Taafe wore to SEC Media Days had the initials of all the girls who drowned at Camp Mystic.

24dfc23336f247d4a404ffc413c204e6.jpg

abb56e61c83ed3fb0861a54451ad5414.jpg

Posted

i can suggest Rocky River Ranch in Wimberley if a completely secular option is preferred. not nearly as exclusive, but the camp grounds are adorable and all the bunk houses are on a bluff well above the river, they suffered minimal damage in 2015. RRR was the highlight of niece's summer for 12 years 🙂

Posted

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

Posted
7 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

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Posted
56 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

I’m not going to post a photo of the paragraph from their handout that addresses floods, but that’s correct. Essentially - stay in cabins unless a counselor or camp personnel say otherwise 

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Interesting, who did it?

Also, it appears that those floodplain "values" are based on Mystic's "appeals," rather than the floodplain initially established by FEMA.  But, who's "right" on that is not a simple answer.  FEMA's is pretty much a "SWAG," while Mystic's data is "site-specific," although tailored to a desired result, i.e. advocacy.

The negligence case may be harder to establish than initially thought, and I think we know from prior litigation that a Kerr County jury is very sympathetic to the local Eastlands.

Edited by TwiceHorn
Posted
26 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Sounds like sirens would have saved some lives and given them a few critical minutes of warning to get uphill

Posted
9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Interesting, who did it?

Also, it appears that those floodplain "values" are based on Mystic's "appeals," rather than the floodplain initially established by FEMA.  But, who's "right" on that is not a simple answer.  FEMA's is pretty much a "SWAG," while Mystic's data is "site-specific," although tailored to a desired result, i.e. advocacy.

The negligence case may be harder to establish than initially thought, and I think we know from prior litigation that a Kerr County jury is very sympathetic to the local Eastlands.

I put all that together. Initially I did it for myself to try and understand what/how/why the tragedy happened. Now as more and more misinformation is reported as fact by the media, I felt like people could benefit from an analysis from someone other than a professor of political science or climate change researcher (those are the "flood experts" quoted in all the news articles). 

There is nothing nefarious about removing structures from the 100-year floodplain boundary. This process involves a Licensed Surveyor finding the lowest ground elevation outside each building and comparing that to the BFE. If the ground is higher than the BFE, then the floodplain boundary was drawn incorrectly (FEMA calls this an inadvertent inclusion), and the structure is removed/exempted from the 100-year floodplain. There is no “advocacy” or “tailoring site-specific analysis” involved in that process. Just simply comparing ground elevations to the FEMA BFE. The next time a new FIRM map gets published, it will have a more accurate boundary drawn now that they use LIDAR elevation data instead of the old USGS topography maps with 20ft contour intervals. 

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