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Posted (edited)

Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. 

There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... 

image.thumb.png.71d00c04c366aedd19adf35cd79abc4c.png

The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract.  So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts,  etc... but its not rocket surgery. 

The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at  Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. 

For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament

If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a 

If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick. 

Edited by Blotto
  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
On 8/2/2025 at 1:51 PM, Horn of Gabriel said:

Post your bets here.  Anyone doing win totals?  I was in Vegas last month and stopped by the MGM sports book to lay this one down 🤘🤘🤘

image.thumb.jpeg.0a98f6fb69640e134a1b39ba7785108f.jpeg

Made the same $100 bet at Bellagio early June.  Also wanted to bet the softball team to win the NC, but "we don't have a line on softball."  Da fuk?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
On 8/14/2025 at 6:54 PM, Blotto said:

Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. 

There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... 

image.thumb.png.71d00c04c366aedd19adf35cd79abc4c.png

The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract.  So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts,  etc... but its not rocket surgery. 

The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at  Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. 

For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament

If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a 

If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick. 

That's interesting, thanks.  I've heard of Kalshi for the political betting markets but hadn't thought of it for sports (duh).  Assume it has all the same funding restrictions as gambling sites, e.g. since I live in Texas I can't easily fund it, have to use crypto, etc?

Posted
55 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

That's interesting, thanks.  I've heard of Kalshi for the political betting markets but hadn't thought of it for sports (duh).  Assume it has all the same funding restrictions as gambling sites, e.g. since I live in Texas I can't easily fund it, have to use crypto, etc?

Funding is not an issue as prediction markets are not illegal. I live in TX and you can use a credit card or link your bank account. The one caveat to all of this is that congresspeople from Nevada are trying to get a bill that makes it illegal for these prediction markets to offer contracts in sporting events, but that seems low priority at the moment and I think this season is probably safe. Next year who knows. 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Easy Pickins:

Temple by (-2.5) by 5.15 over UMASS - Saturday, August 30. We are simply placing our faith in Temple's new head coach KC Keeler to end the Owl's 20-game road losing streak in his debut. Keeler has long track record of success..UMASS also has a new head coach in Joe Harasymiak whose only previous HC experience came at Maine (2016-2018) where he was 20-15 after a 10-4 final season before taking an assistant job at Minnesota.

Notre Dame (-2.5) by 3.79 over MIAMI, FLA. - Sunday, August 31. This hardly has the same vibe as the 1988 clash of Catholics vs. Convicts, but it's an especially big game for Miami which will be starting Georgia transfer Carson Beck at QB while Notre Dame goes with CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr. He was a top recruit (ESPN no. 2 pocket passer) in the 2024 class, but sustained an injury to his throwing elbow last September. Still, he wasn't likely to see the field with Riley Leonard holding the starting job. Miami lost Cam Ward to the Tennessee Titans as the No. 1 over-all pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Notre Dame has an 18-8-1 lead in the series, but they haven't met since 2017 when Miami won 41-8 at home.

South Carolina (-7.5) by 10.21 over Virginia Tech (Atlanta) - Sunday, August 31. Shane, the son of Virginia Tech legend Frank Beamer and the head coach many Virginia Tech fans wanted to succeed his dad, will lead the Gamecocks against the school Shane attended and later served as running backs coach. Expectations are that South Carolina has the better talent and depth at most positions.

Texas Christian (-3.5) by 17.95 over NORTH CAROLINA - Monday, September 1 . The 17.95-point computer spread seems atrocious, but we're taking the invading Horned Frogs to spoil Bill Belichick's debut as HC of the Heels - unless Tom Brady sneaks onto campus.

Not so fast:

Tennessee (-13.5) by 3.07 over Syracuse (Atlanta) - Saturday, August 30. This one of two Aflac Kickoff Games in Atlanta with South Carolina taking on Virginia Tech the next day. The Vols are 3-0 in the series, but these teams haven't met since a 33-9 win Knoxville in 2001. Tennessee HC Josh Heupel just had his contract extended one year to 2030. He's 37-15 with the Vols and a stellar 65-23 over-all. Fran Brown guided the Orange to a 10-3 season in his debut as a HC with any school in 2024. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli is Kyle McCord's successor at QB for Syracuse. Tennessee and UCLA swapped QB's as the Bruins took Nico Iamaleava and the Vols snatched Joey Aguilar who had transfred from App State to the Bruins after the Mountaineers fired Shawn Clark. Seems like the perfect example of the screwed up NIL/Transfer Portal system.  

Utah (-6.5) by 2.44 over UCLA - Saturday, August 30. As mentioned above with the Tennessee/UCLA QB swap, Nico Iamaleava is expected to start for the Bruins while New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier gets the nod for Utah.

Edited by Hollywood
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Upset City:

BAYLOR by 12.08 over Auburn (-2.5) - Friday, August 29. These teams haven't met since 1976. Baylor was 2-0-1 in regular season games from 1965-1976 while Auburn's only win came in the 1954 Gator Bowl. Baylor was 5-1 at home last week while Auburn as 1-3 on the road. The Tigers have won 8 straight season openers, though mostly against vastly inferior opposition. Auburn was 5-7 a year ago while the Bears went 8-5 with 6 straight victories to end the regular season.before a bowl loss to LSU. Baylor returns 80% of its starters including its major playmakers from a year ago..Auburn will start Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold at QB  

COLORADO by 1.14 over Georgia Tech (-3.50) - Friday August 29. What will Deion do without his son, Shedeur, at QB and Travis Hunter playing 100 snaps a game on both sides of the ball? How have Coach Prime's health issues effected readiness for this season? Does Brent Key have a Georgia Tech team that can be better than mediocre as the Jackets are just 18-16 under his watch. All we really know right now is that the Jackets are picked to go 6-6 against the No. 33 schedule by the Congrove Computer Rankings and the Buffs are projected to go 7-5 against the No. 23 schedule.

SAM HOUSTON by 4.96 over Nevada-Las Vegas (-9.50) - Friday, August 29. Both teams actually have a game under their belt. UNLV won 38-31, but needed to rally to avert the upset to FCS member Idaho State at home. Sam Houston went to Western Kentucky and lost 41-24 after gaining a 24-20 lead in the opening minutes of the 3rd quarter. Phil Longo is the new HC with the Bearkats, replacing the ultra-successful KC Keeler who is now with Temple. Dan Mullen replaces Barry Odom who filled the opening at Purdue after lifting the Rebels to a cumulative 19-8 in two seasons.

Ball State by 3.94 at PURDUE (-17.50) - Saturday, August 30. Both teams return very little experience and both have new head coaches and staffs. Mike Uremovich steps up from the FCS to the FBS after leading Butler to marks of 23-11 overall and 15-9 in the Patriot League. Barry Odom left UNLV after going 19-8 in two seasons. We'd be inclined to take the Big Ten team at home over the MAC team, and the FBS experience of Odom, even though he was just 25-25 in four seasons as the HC at Missouri (2016-2019) where 18 of those wins came against sub.-500 schools or FCS teams, and had just 2 wins vs. schools that finished better than 7-6.

Toledo by 0.18 over KENTUCKY (-7.5) - Saturday, August 30. Kentucky was 4-8 last season while Toledo was a somewhat disappointing 8-5 after a 3-0 start that included a 41-17 win at Mississippi State. QB Tucker Gleason returns after throwing for 2,808 yards and 24 TD's with just 8 INT's, and adding 364 rushing and 7 scores. Their problem was that he was the second-leading rusher and was only 94 yards behind  the leader, Connor Walendzak. Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada was finally named the starter by Mark Stoops for Kentucky's opener. Calzada began his collegiate career at Texas A&M in 2019, but injuries and the Covid season have made him one of those players who turned college into a career and he is now in his 7th and final season. After 3 seasons with the Aggies, he transferred to Auburn in 2022 and did not play due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He transferred to UIW and had 2 solid seasons, throwing for 6,342 yards with 54 TD's and 18 interceptions. Kentucky was next-to-last in the SEC on offense a year ago, and 10th on defense. Toledo was 6th on offense in the MAC and 5th on defense. Kentucky won the only other meeting of these teams in 2019 at home, 38-24.

Texas by 0.57 over OHIO STATE (-2.5) - Saturday, August 30. Lee Corso's last appearance on ESPN GameDay where it he first donned Brutus as the headgear pick that started the tradition. Texas begins the 2025 season against the last team it played in the 2024 season, falling 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal College Football Playoff game. Arch is now the starting QB while Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin who first committed Alabama during the 2023 season. He saw no action with the Tide and threw all of 12 passes in four total relief appearances in 2024 for Ohio State, completing 5 for 84 yards with 1 TD passes that came against Western Michigan. These are the No. 1 and 2 teams in the Coaches' Poll and the FWAA-NFF Super 16 Poll with the Longhorns at the top of each.

Texas-El Paso by 0.03 over UTAH STATE (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. The No. 118 Miners visit the No. 127 Miners (Congrove Computer Rankings). If you're planning to wager on this one, our best advice might be to call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. Bronco Mendenhall fled New Mexico after one season, though a 5-7 season was fairly remarkable. Now he moves back to Utah where he spent 11 seasons coaching BYU where he was 99-43 before leaving for Virginia (36-38). He's a combined 41-45 at any school not named BYU. Scotty Walden was 3-9 in his first campaign with UTEP after leaving Austin Peay with a 26-14 record in four seasons. He's 37-29 all-time.

Abilene Christian by 2.46 over Tulsa (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. A rare pick for a FCS team to knock off a FBS school. This will be the debut of Tre Lamb as head coach with the Golden Hurricane after 1 season at ETSU (7-5) and 4 at Gardner-Webb (20-20). Tulsa is predicted to finish the season at No. 126 in the FBS Congrove Computer Rankings with a 2-10 record while ACU is picked to go 8-4 and rank 27 among FCS schools. The Wildcats made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs a year ago where they fell 51-31 at eventual national champion North Dakota State. Keith Patterson is 21-15 at the school in three seasons.

Edited by Hollywood
Updated
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
On 8/14/2025 at 4:54 PM, Blotto said:

Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. 

There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... 

image.thumb.png.71d00c04c366aedd19adf35cd79abc4c.png

The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract.  So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts,  etc... but its not rocket surgery. 

The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at  Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. 

For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament

If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a 

If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick. 

Should have posted here my bet, but agree with you completely on prediction markets being a good options for all the reasons you suggest:

Put up $700 for 10,000 shares (@ .07 cents ea.) for LaNorris Sellers to win the Hesiman. If he wins it's a payout of $10,000 (13x or 1300% return on investment).

My logic is a) he looks good b) it's a good value and c) SoCar SHOULD (or at least COULD) be 5-0 and a top 10 team going into their first real test against LSU in October. 

At the very least I should be able to double the money and shave some profits and revisit the landscape by then.

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