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DalTxHornFan

DalTxHornFan spittin fire on CV, now with landman

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Think any of their landlords are gonna be quick to boot em out?  Think ending the bans a month early is gonna solve that?

I would direct you to Frederic Bastiat's classic essay known in English as "What is Seen and What is Unseen" --  it's easy to look at one month's lost rent as solely being the problem for a landlord, but there are a hell of a lot of consequences that derive from the underlying event.  YMMV.  Cheers.

Edited by DalTxHornFan

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5 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


If anything happens to them it's because they are in the industry they are in. They can choose to do something else.

As of right now there are 66k case and 944 deaths.

In 2009 there were a reported 22 million americans with h1n1 and 4,000 deaths.

Shaggytexas is still searchable. Show me your work where you damned the Congress and president back then. Rhetorical statement, I know. You wont respond.

 

So, using your numbers (and assuming the mortality rate won’t increase as hospitals get overwhelmed and we run out of available ventilators, which is probably an unrealistically optimistic assumption), if 22,000,000 are infected with coronavirus we can expect to see 314,000 deaths instead of the 4,000 with h1n1.

Maybe that’s why there’s a difference in how people are reacting now compared to the reaction to h1n1.   It’s much the same way we react differently to paper cuts vs. gunshot wounds.

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7 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


If anything happens to them it's because they are in the industry they are in. They can choose to do something else.

As of right now there are 66k case and 944 deaths.

In 2009 there were a reported 22 million americans with h1n1 and 4,000 deaths.

Shaggytexas is still searchable. Show me your work where you damned the Congress and president back then. Rhetorical statement, I know. You wont respond.

 

Here's your reply.  Go fuck yourself, bitch. 

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Here's your reply.  Go fuck yourself, bitch. 
You hate facts and retort to comebacks that a 16 year old would use I see.

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55 minutes ago, markstanco said:
4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:
Here's your reply.  Go fuck yourself, bitch. 

You hate facts and retort to comebacks that a 16 year old would use I see.

No, I hate morons, like you. 

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The death rate will climb.

The hospitalization/ICU rate is already blowing every other modern illness out of the water.

Because of the highly infectious nature of this disease, the people who are dying of it die alone, gasping for breath, choking on their own aspirated frothy blood.  They die alone.  They don't pass peacefully with the machines turned off, and their spouse holding their hand.  Their family can't even go into the hospital.  They just get a phone call that their wife or husband or daughter or son died.

So, yeah, it's pretty fucking different, and it's a big fucking deal.

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4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Here's your reply.  Go fuck yourself, bitch. 

Aw yeah, the ole #8

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The death rate will climb.

The hospitalization/ICU rate is already blowing every other modern illness out of the water.

Because of the highly infectious nature of this disease, the people who are dying of it die alone, gasping for breath, choking on their own aspirated frothy blood.  They die alone.  They don't pass peacefully with the machines turned off, and their spouse holding their hand.  Their family can't even go into the hospital.  They just get a phone call that their wife or husband or daughter or son died.

So, yeah, it's pretty fucking different, and it's a big fucking deal.

Just exchanged some texts w/ my sister who is an ER nurse at one of Dallas big system hospitals.  I asked her how "work" was.  Got a one word answer "bad".  My next question was if they had enough PPE.  Her reply "for now, but it won't last more than a week".  And they really haven't gotten blasted....yet. 

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11 hours ago, markstanco said:

Cant wait for what we say about this in 3 months.

I bet in the next pandemic new Yorkers wont "hug a chinaman" in the square like this time or whatever country the pandemic comes from.

Oh, yes they will. Retards.

Well at least you posted this in the right thread.

(can't tell if my sarcasm meter is broken)

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14 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


If anything happens to them it's because they are in the industry they are in. They can choose to do something else.

As of right now there are 66k case and 944 deaths.

In 2009 there were a reported 22 million americans with h1n1 and 4,000 deaths.

Shaggytexas is still searchable. Show me your work where you damned the Congress and president back then. Rhetorical statement, I know. You wont respond.

 

Got em coach!

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Okay, I'll bite: here's why comparisons to influenza appear to be erroneous.

-  There is no "herd" immunity to the SARS-CoV2 virus because it's new.  There is herd immunity to influenza (which is actually a class of many different viruses strains). Due to this only about 8% of the population gets the flu every year.  This herd immunity is also boosted by vaccines for which there is obviously none for COV2.

 - The average mortality rate of influenza is .1% or about 1/1000 cases.  The current estimated mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4% (14/1000) or 14x higher than influenza.

- The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick.  The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3.  Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu.

So here's your mortality math assuming 350 Million people in USA:

Influenza: On average 8% get the flu so 28 Million.  Average mortality rate is .1% or 28,000/year. Actual Numbers

SARS-CoV2: Having no history to refer to, no one knows how many will get it, but with the 2x R0 transmission rate let's just call it 16% or 56 Million.  Mortality rate is 1.4% or 784,000 deaths.

 

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17 hours ago, markstanco said:

As of right now there are 66k case and 944 deaths.

In 2009 there were a reported 22 million americans with h1n1 and 4,000 deaths.

Remember that time aggy led Alabama in the 1st quarter?

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Jesus fuck people, stop taking COVID deaths/reported cases to infer the fatality rate that you are then extrapolating to the broader population.  You are leaving tons of minor/asymptomatic cases out of the denominator.  Only serious cases are being tested at this point, and many of those are being denied tests.  

And you certainly can't compare that rate above to flu IFRs (infection fatality ratio) you read in the press.  Those are calculated long after the fact by taking random blood samples to look for antibodies to determine who was actually infected.   Until we do that with COVID, we can't really have apples-to-apples comparison's of IFRs.  

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Didn't even read all these posts but went ahead and negged because if mods feel the need to create a separate thread for someones takes then they're probably just being contrarian for the hell of it.

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3 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Yeah, and who the fuck wants to live in a world without Cheesecake Factories?

 

Lots and lots of our former athletes?

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6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

If we end up at 1/10th that estimate, we will be at 200k deaths.  Note that this does NOT take into account the massive strain on our hospitals and the much higher number of critical care patients.  Also, to compare, the highest death rate we've had from the flu in the past 40 years (and note, this number is very arguable, as many believe the CDC's numbers are high) is 80k in 2018.  So, 2.5X the flu at its worst.  If we get out of this with that, it would be a big win.

Here's a thought: folks postulating that EITHER we're going to have 10k a day dying, OR that this will be no worse than the flu, are full of shit.  Toss out the best-case willful Pollyanna numbers....toss out the worst-case "we're all gonna die" numbers.  What is left in the middle...is still really fucking bad.

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

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Didn't even read all these posts but went ahead and negged because if mods feel the need to create a separate thread for someones takes then they're probably just being contrarian for the hell of it.
If you keep negging the mods, eventually they will all be banned. Keep up the good work and fight the good fight.

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