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2020 Democratic Nominee

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51 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

If I were Warren I would attack Bernie for taking money from so many problematic people: 

 

 

 

the hard r ftw. 

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I know there are polls, but I would appreciate everyone’s guess on whether a particular democratic candidate would beat Trump. I know this could be controversial but I’m interested to know what everyone thinks.

Here’s my guesses which go against polling quit a bit. Also some of these people would probably not get the Democratic nomination to eventually go against Trump.

Biden - yes
sanders - no
Streyer- no
Warren - no
Klobuchar - no
Bloomberg - yes
Buttigeig - no

I know many won’t like this prediction.

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9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Biden - yes
sanders - no
Streyer- no
Warren - no
Klobuchar - no
Bloomberg - yes
Buttigeig - no

Biden - No way in hell. No money, no enthusiasm and no plan
Sanders - Yes - opposite of Biden. Easiest path to the Presidency. Can swing disaffected populist Trump voters in the key battleground states.
Streyer- Nope - Vanity.
Warren - Yes, but will require a lot of work and enthusiasm. 
Klobuchar - no
Bloomberg - No way. He is running to protect his billions.
Buttigeig - no

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23 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I know there are polls, but I would appreciate everyone’s guess on whether a particular democratic candidate would beat Trump. I know this could be controversial but I’m interested to know what everyone thinks.

Here’s my guesses which go against polling quit a bit. Also some of these people would probably not get the Democratic nomination to eventually go against Trump.

Biden - yes
sanders - no
Streyer- no
Warren - no
Klobuchar - no
Bloomberg - yes
Buttigeig - no

I know many won’t like this prediction.

I too have a head injury but still want to predict politics. Could a charismatic giraffe in a senate race in Nevada?

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26 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I too have a head injury but still want to predict politics. Could a charismatic giraffe in a senate race in Nevada?

I guess you weren't kidding.

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I too have a head injury but still want to predict politics. Could a charismatic giraffe in a senate race in Nevada?


I know it’s fun and easy to use sock accounts to drop hilarious posts periodically attacking other posts. I love your entire collection, including this post. However, it’s quite a bit more difficult to put yourself out there and put a stake in the ground about what you really think. I hope you choose to enter the discussion rather than stay on the sidelines.

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Biden is the only one I would favor against Trump.  Sanders would have the next best chance, but Trump would be the favorite.  Everyone below them would get trounced, particularly Warren and Buttigieg.

The idea of Bloomberg could be a formidable challenger from a certain point of view, but the problem is that people would see the actual Bloomberg.  People don’t like real billionaires who are snooty, technocratic, and charmless.   Although a disaster for actual governance, for electoral purposes it’s much better to be an entertaining, incompetent fake billionaire like Trump. 

Edited by longhornmatt

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I am genuinely interested in your reasoning. The only thing I find curious about your picks are Bloomberg.


And yet you’ve still chosen to not put your own view out there. Should we all assume you are yes on all?

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i think most everyone on that list would win the popular vote vs trump.

he got 63mm votes in 2016.  maybe that number goes up, but i don't really see how.  hillary got 66mm votes, and people fucking hated her.  i don't see nearly as many "vote against" types in this group.  regardless, everyone who went through the trouble of voting for hillary likely hates trump, and should show up.  about half of america voted in 2016.  that number should go up.

michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona, north carolina, florida.  there's your election.

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Trump is like +10 to +15 in net favorability  compared to just before the 2016 election. It’s appalling, but he’s more popular now than he was four years ago.  I do agree Hillary was a particularly hated opponent, but Trump is also stronger this time.

Edited by longhornmatt

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6 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

I fully support democratic revolutions and would be happy to see a genuine mass uprising against Maduro's shitty government.

That's cool and I agree. I didn't see the distinction initially why you would say what you said.

I am for any and all genuine mass uprisings, revolutions and rebellions. Maybe it's just the Ole Miss in me showing.

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20 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

And yet you’ve still chosen to not put your own view out there. Should we all assume you are yes on all?

 

Jesus, dude, I post like 5,000 words every minute on here, I'm not hard to pin down. Just curious about your logic.

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in the popular vote?  sure.


Is there some reason you aren’t answering the question? It’s a simple question. Do they beat Trump or not. The popular vote is irrelevant.

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Jesus, dude, I post like 5,000 words every minute on here, I'm not hard to pin down. Just curious about your logic.

Then it should be easy for you to just say yes or no for each. Is it yes for all? Yes or no? Why is there so much reluctance to state a view?

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Because I wanted to hear you out and not just make it about me.

But OK...

Biden - 70/30
Sanders - 70/30
Klobuchar - 60/40
Warren - 50/50
Yang - 40/60
Buttigieg - 30/70
Steyer - 10/90
Bloomberg - 10/90

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26 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Is there some reason you aren’t answering the question? It’s a simple question. Do they beat Trump or not. The popular vote is irrelevant.

 

because i don't have a crystal ball?

in fair and balanced elections, the top 4 beat trump by 6-7 points and in the electoral college.

can you guarantee me the gop won't fuck with the elections in those states?  anyone who isn't nervous as fuck about that situation is kidding themselves.

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Let the record show I agree with both BT (his numbers) and Henry (his fear/uneasiness) on this question.

Now everyone get the fuck out of here because this thread will now self destruct.

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2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Is Team Bloomberg high??

 

Since he didn't qualify for tonight's debate he's apparently let his "social media team" (i.e. his nephew or niece) tweet weird crap.

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Biden and Sanders maybe.

Bloomberg no idea, I know nothing about him nor do I care to.

Everyone else no.

 

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I know we’ve discussed Pete’s dumb “No free college for ‘rich’ kids” but this is something I’ve never considered.




Or super religious families who won’t support their kids who don’t want to go to the university their parents want.

I never thought about financially abusive parents using educational support as a weapon. In those situations the kids can’t declare themselves financially independent until 24 years old and if their parents are “rich” the kids are basically fucked out of financial aid.

Just another reason why means testing is shitty shitty shit.

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13 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I know there are polls, but I would appreciate everyone’s guess on whether a particular democratic candidate would beat Trump. I know this could be controversial but I’m interested to know what everyone thinks.

Here’s my guesses which go against polling quit a bit. Also some of these people would probably not get the Democratic nomination to eventually go against Trump.

Biden - yes
sanders - no
Streyer- no
Warren - no
Klobuchar - no
Bloomberg - yes
Buttigeig - no

I know many won’t like this prediction.

i think all of those people could beat trump, but my fear is none of them will.   trump fights low - his nicknames, his smirks, his lies, his disinformation, his insecure and immature braggadocio.  the crooked hillary and lock her up chants caught on and stuck with the low iq voters, and he'll do the same thing this time.  none of the democrats listed will play as dirty as he does, are strong enough to call him out on his bullshit, and stand up to his bullying.   i hope i'm wrong but if i had to wager now i'd say trump wins re-election.

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After watching as much of the debate as I could, I wasn't overwhelmed really. I've been a fan of Warren, but some of her plans are still a little meh. However, I maintain, no matter who it is, I will support them. Was it Bernie? I got called away during part of the debate, but it might have been Sanders that was talking about throwing support behind whomever gets the nod. I agree. No sitting this one out, no sore losing; actually actively campaigning to elect a NEW President.

 

It does appear that they need a bulldog for a VP, because yes, they don't seem as quick to stand up to Trump's sneers and smears. But another four years of Trump in office and you know it isn't just Hawley that will be running, or the Trump Family Syndicate, it's probably going to be somebody like Jim Jordan. Imagine him up there on the debate stage for a minute. That ought to get people out to vote pronto.

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Can't get over how tame all of these debates have been. I guess with the rise of Twitter there are other ways to create "viral" moments in a primary. 

Or maybe in the Trump era they are overly cautious not to look nasty. 

 

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1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Can't get over how tame all of these debates have been. I guess with the rise of Twitter there are other ways to create "viral" moments in a primary. 

Or maybe in the Trump era they are overly cautious not to look nasty. 

 

with iowa so close, it seemed to be an overall low-energy night with nobody really wanting to take chances. 

was definitely the lamest debate. 

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2 hours ago, thrillhammer said:

i think all of those people could beat trump, but my fear is none of them will.   trump fights low - his nicknames, his smirks, his lies, his disinformation, his insecure and immature braggadocio.  the crooked hillary and lock her up chants caught on and stuck with the low iq voters, and he'll do the same thing this time.  none of the democrats listed will play as dirty as he does, are strong enough to call him out on his bullshit, and stand up to his bullying.   i hope i'm wrong but if i had to wager now i'd say trump wins re-election.

This. Trump has many weaknesses, but would any of the candidates be able to effectively exploit them? I'd like to think Bernie would have a good shot at winning over disaffected white working class voters in the midwest, but after a year of attacks from Trump and being presented by CNN chyrons as the next Stalin, would he really actually win many of them over or would they fall for the racist "That (((Bernie))) wants to bring in more immigrants and give them your jobs!" shit?

Biden has the best odds of beating Trump, yet paradoxically may be the best opponent for Trump to run against. To beat an incumbent you typically need to draw a significant distinction between yourself and the incumbent and Biden doesn't really do that. And there's the problem that he doesn't excite anyone. How'd that work out for when Kerry ran against W?  And I like Warren a lot but I think her campaign is faltering badly on the politics right now with what should be a very minor story, so I'm not exactly encouraged about what her campaign will look like against Trump, the GOP, and a hostile media (if she's the nominee, they'll be just as hostile to her as they'd be to Bernie). 

I think Klobuchar as the nominee would actually stand a good chance against Trump, but she's not remotely close to getting the nomination so it doesn't matter. Buttigieg would lose, Yang would get demolished. It doesn't seem like anybody else in the field would stand a chance, but maybe I'm underestimating the impact having a limitless amount of money can have on Steyer and Bloomberg's campaigns. 

It was probably inevitable that things would end up looking bleaker later in the primary season after all the Dems took each other apart and we'll have reason to be more optimistic come November regardless of who the nominee is, but shit things sure are depressing as hell right now.

 

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This #neverwarren thing is crazy. 
 

Are there that many Chapo incels out there?  

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18 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

If I were Warren I would attack Bernie for taking money from so many problematic people: 

 

 

 

+rep to whoever used The Scoleri Brothers

hqdefault.jpg

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14 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Jesus, dude, I post like 5,000 words every minute on here, I'm not hard to pin down. Just curious about your logic.

Saving this.

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3 minutes ago, Xian said:

This #neverwarren thing is crazy. 
 

Are there that many Chapo incels out there?  

The loudest Beto supporters on Twitter still to this day are #NeverPete. They write it in their bios. Beto dropped out 75 days ago. 

Twitter and Trump have broken people's brains. 

 

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20 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Bernie will have a satisfactory answer to any moderator question about this ridiculous controversy. The only way it lingers is if Warren makes more out of it on stage, which would be a stupid move on her part. 

They kiss and make up, but the bickering/hard feelings won't go away online. 

 

Well, well, well, look where we are. I saw the video of her brushing off a handshake after the debate and it really chapped my ass. Not sure if that's making more out of it, but it sure seems like it, and she might be losing a supporter over it.

This thread isn't very good, but I wanted to see what people thought about this. I had Warren at the top of my list with Bernie a solid 2, but definitely 2, and now I'm rolling my eyes hard at both Warren and her campaign. Apparently he said this shit over a year ago but now she's pissed off enough about it to leak it and make it this awkward deal that she can't even shake his hand now? Fuck that. Weak ass coordinated attack plan. I understand that Trump can call your wife fat and talk about your father, your intellect or whatever he wants over on the other side, but I'm not down with the weak ass tactics weeks before a big primary. Maybe that's why we're losers though.

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2 minutes ago, BurdineBandit said:

Well, well, well, look where we are. I saw the video of her brushing off a handshake after the debate and it really chapped my ass. Not sure if that's making more out of it, but it sure seems like it, and she might be losing a supporter over it.

This thread isn't very good, but I wanted to see what people thought about this. I had Warren at the top of my list with Bernie a solid 2, but definitely 2, and now I'm rolling my eyes hard at both Warren and her campaign. Apparently he said this shit over a year ago but now she's pissed off enough about it to leak it and make it this awkward deal that she can't even shake his hand now? Fuck that. Weak ass coordinated attack plan. I understand that Trump can call your wife fat and talk about your father, your intellect or whatever he wants over on the other side, but I'm not down with the weak ass tactics weeks before a big primary. Maybe that's why we're losers though.

As someone that has both Warren and Bernie far at the bottom of my list from a policy perspective, this 'feud' is absolutely idiotic from a strategic standpoint and it was ridiculous of Warren to seemingly escalate it rather than quashing it last night.  I don't think either have a chance at beating Trump if they get the nomination, but if they do, they sure as hell need every single vote and general support (financial, volunteering, etc.) from the current supporters of the one that loses.  Obviously if one of them wins I'm sure the candidates make up and the loser actively campaigns for the other so it's probably not important in the long run but it's still pretty stupid to risk any animosity from the other base when you are on the same team.

 

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11 minutes ago, BurdineBandit said:

Well, well, well, look where we are. I saw the video of her brushing off a handshake after the debate and it really chapped my ass. Not sure if that's making more out of it, but it sure seems like it, and she might be losing a supporter over it.

This thread isn't very good, but I wanted to see what people thought about this. I had Warren at the top of my list with Bernie a solid 2, but definitely 2, and now I'm rolling my eyes hard at both Warren and her campaign. Apparently he said this shit over a year ago but now she's pissed off enough about it to leak it and make it this awkward deal that she can't even shake his hand now? Fuck that. Weak ass coordinated attack plan. I understand that Trump can call your wife fat and talk about your father, your intellect or whatever he wants over on the other side, but I'm not down with the weak ass tactics weeks before a big primary. Maybe that's why we're losers though.

I've tried to refrain from crapping on her that much throughout this whole ordeal because I'm committed to voting for Bernie in the primary and I have bias. I thought she completely screwed up by answering that reporters question about the supposed phone-bank candidate "smear" flyer and then going on record saying that Bernie specifically said "A women cannot win the presidency."

Whatever, okay, it's a primary and she's attacking him now and Bernie goes on record denying that he said such a phrase, at least in some blatant manner. Her not trying to squash that crap last night at the debate was ugly, it made me lose a lot of respect for her even though she's still my second pick (just a much more distance pick now). Bernie didn't handle it the best either because he wanted to rehash the details, him trying to make a point that he beat an incumbent technically less than 30 years ago seemed dumb too, but she somehow came out looking more untrustworthy in that exchange (especially because CNN seemed hellbent on smearing Bernie).

Edited by GSU&UT

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38 minutes ago, BurdineBandit said:

Well, well, well, look where we are. I saw the video of her brushing off a handshake after the debate and it really chapped my ass. Not sure if that's making more out of it, but it sure seems like it, and she might be losing a supporter over it.

This thread isn't very good, but I wanted to see what people thought about this. I had Warren at the top of my list with Bernie a solid 2, but definitely 2, and now I'm rolling my eyes hard at both Warren and her campaign. Apparently he said this shit over a year ago but now she's pissed off enough about it to leak it and make it this awkward deal that she can't even shake his hand now? Fuck that. Weak ass coordinated attack plan. I understand that Trump can call your wife fat and talk about your father, your intellect or whatever he wants over on the other side, but I'm not down with the weak ass tactics weeks before a big primary. Maybe that's why we're losers though.

 

30 minutes ago, Skipper said:

As someone that has both Warren and Bernie far at the bottom of my list from a policy perspective, this 'feud' is absolutely idiotic from a strategic standpoint and it was ridiculous of Warren to seemingly escalate it rather than quashing it last night.  I don't think either have a chance at beating Trump if they get the nomination, but if they do, they sure as hell need every single vote and general support (financial, volunteering, etc.) from the current supporters of the one that loses.  Obviously if one of them wins I'm sure the candidates make up and the loser actively campaigns for the other so it's probably not important in the long run but it's still pretty stupid to risk any animosity from the other base when you are on the same team.

 

 

28 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I've tried to refrain from crapping on her that much throughout this whole ordeal because I'm committed to voting for Bernie in the primary and I have bias. I thought she completely screwed up by answering that reporters question about the supposed phone-bank candidate "smear" flyer and then going on record saying that Bernie specifically said "A women cannot win the presidency."

Whatever, okay, it's a primary and she's attacking him now and Bernie goes on record denying that he said such a phrase, at least in some blatant manner. Her not trying to squash that crap last night at the debate was ugly, it made me lose a lot of respect for her even though she's still my second pick (just a much more distance pick now). Bernie didn't handle it the best either because he wanted to rehash the details, him trying to make a point that he beat an incumbent technically less than 30 years ago seemed dumb too, but she somehow came out looking more untrustworthy in that exchange (especially because CNN seemed hellbent on smearing Bernie).

the whole thing makes both look petty. i think bernie said something. i think warren heard something else. this happens all the fucking time. i'm not necessarily going to speculate, but if bernie said "a woman beat him in the popular vote last time and still lost" and warren took that to mean "a woman cannot win in 2020," that's perfectly understandable. how each camp is treating this stupid controversy is why the democrats have an uphill climb against trump. how can bernie outright deny saying anything? how can warren not leave an opening for misunderstanding his comments? it's fucking stupid all around, and the big winner in this is donald fucking trump.

goddammit.

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47 minutes ago, Xian said:

This #neverwarren thing is crazy. 
 

Are there that many Chapo incels out there?  

It's probably half bot-generated bullshit but there are a bunch of more well-known Bernie supporters pushing it and it's so fucking annoying. I'd happily vote for Bernie in the general but the sheer amount of vitriol coming from them may kneecap them even if it helps Bernie get the nomination. 

34 minutes ago, BurdineBandit said:

Well, well, well, look where we are. I saw the video of her brushing off a handshake after the debate and it really chapped my ass. Not sure if that's making more out of it, but it sure seems like it, and she might be losing a supporter over it.

This thread isn't very good, but I wanted to see what people thought about this. I had Warren at the top of my list with Bernie a solid 2, but definitely 2, and now I'm rolling my eyes hard at both Warren and her campaign. Apparently he said this shit over a year ago but now she's pissed off enough about it to leak it and make it this awkward deal that she can't even shake his hand now? Fuck that. Weak ass coordinated attack plan. I understand that Trump can call your wife fat and talk about your father, your intellect or whatever he wants over on the other side, but I'm not down with the weak ass tactics weeks before a big primary. Maybe that's why we're losers though.

I'm hoping that some of her campaign staff leaked it on their own (or at least pressured her into doing it) as a desperation play, but I can't for the life of me understand how even in their most optimistic predictions they thought it would play well for them. What the fuck were they hoping to accomplish? Snag some women votes from Bernie? That would be a dumb fucking goal. She needs to take votes from Biden and Buttigieg. She may be closer to Bernie in ideology, but nobody is getting his core voters.

Unfortunately, Warren isn't as good of a political candidate as she is an actual public official. I still think she'd be a damned good President, but I'm less optimistic today than I was a few months ago that she could beat Trump. 

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28 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I've tried to refrain from crapping on her that much throughout this whole ordeal because I'm committed to voting for Bernie in the primary and I have bias.

Yeah...

HUGO DON'T READ THE SPOILER

NO HUGOS ALLOWED

The smart play now is to keep bashing Biden and trying to maintain as much good will as possible with her followers so they come over to the BERN DAWG side when the voting comes. If we are open and welcoming to them and don't harp on her pathetic displays too much, there's still a shot we can convince some of the post-grads who are masquerading as progressives to switch over to the working class side. Bashing her campaign openly is pointless, because her absolutely abysmal political instincts are sinking that ship without having to use any of our torpedoes. I had hoped for a two-boat fleet, but it's the USS BERN DAWG alone at this point. 

The bros are mad on Twitter because Warren snubbed Bernie live on TV, but they'll get bored in a day or so with that and we can refocus them on Joe.

NO HUGO NO

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

SHOCKING 

 

Yes Hugo. He's trying to sow division amongst the stupid, emotional voters on the Democrat side.

You're not stupid and emotional are you?

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mpu


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