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Anastasis

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

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39 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

Degenerate shit really. 

Yeah, it's great isn't it? 

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6 minutes ago, UTDD said:

Yeah, it's great isn't it? 

Gotta have some sweat on it to really maintain interest. 

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38 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It pays out $1 per share total or $1 above your initial bet?  I assume the former?  (i.e., a "sure thing" would price at $0.99 to return $1?)

Correct. $1 per "share" is the payout after the issue/election/etc.... has been decided.

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11 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Also bot Brexit by 11/1 deadline for 0.44

Its at .42 now and  that's enticing. Boris exhibits a lot of Trump characteristics, and I suspect he will bull forward with his rhetoric all the way to final moments. He basically staked his PM candidacy on a hard brexit if need be, so if he does capitulate, it will be at the last minute and only if the EU doesn't blink first. Current price is .40 and I gotta believe this will rise. I won't hold til the end, because the final resolution will likely be a shitshow, but I can definitely see it trending up over the next month or two. 

 

Edited by Blotto

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10 hours ago, Blotto said:

Its at .42 now and  that's enticing. Boris exhibits a lot of Trump characteristics, and I suspect he will bull forward with his rhetoric all the way to final moments. He basically staked his PM candidacy on a hard brexit if need be, so if he does capitulate, it will be at the last minute and only if the EU doesn't blink first. Current price is .40 and I gotta believe this will rise. I won't hold til the end, because the final resolution will likely be a shitshow, but I can definitely see it trending up over the next month or two. 

 

No Brexit expert but my understanding is May and staff were all remainers. Now Boris and top advisors were all strong behind Brexit.

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Haven't checked out predictit in awhile.  

"Will Hillary run in 2020?" at .90 seems like free money.  

I also like Biden winning South Carolina primary at .42.  

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22 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Haven't checked out predictit in awhile.  

"Will Hillary run in 2020?" at .90 seems like free money.  

I also like Biden winning South Carolina primary at .42.  

Also Michelle Obama at ninety. It’s not clear when those markets close so your money might be locked up until DNC convention. 

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Threw a few bucks at Corey Booker winning Iowa caucus for $0.04. He’s not going to win obviously, but a few things going his way could make it a double or triple I think. 

Continued strong debate performances. 

Kamala continuing to falter. He would get some of her black vote. He is also a nice counter to her on the criminal justice issue. 

He will catch some of the votes from losers dropping out like Beto, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper et al. 

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This one seems like a near certainty knowing trump and his sycophants...

On or before December 31, 2019, the United States Treasury shall issue a report to Congress in which it concludes that China has met the standard of manipulating the rate of exchange between its currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade during the period covered in the report.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

 

currently "yes" is only .38

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Has anyone been following the situation with the Blackjewel Coal company? These miners are getting fucked in a really bad way. Try and watch it without experiencing schadenfreude, these people are hurting and probably know Trump's promises were empty.

Not sure why the Dem candidates are not all over this, I believe Bernie is the only candidate speaking out on the issue. I would think this would be in Warren's wheelhouse but so far Bernie is the only one talking about it.

 

 

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I apologize to y'all degenerate gamblers, I am not sure how I ended up posting that in this thread.

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2 hours ago, Blotto said:

This one seems like a near certainty knowing trump and his sycophants...

On or before December 31, 2019, the United States Treasury shall issue a report to Congress in which it concludes that China has met the standard of manipulating the rate of exchange between its currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade during the period covered in the report.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

 

currently "yes" is only .38

Uh good call. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Uh good call. 

 

Well fuck me. Didn't  buy because 1.) No cash in the account and was going to decide whether to deposit more or sell some of my existing positions in Warren and Brexit, 2.) It seemed like such an obvious Trump thing to do, I figured there was some legal hurdle to this that I was going to look into tonight.

 

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On 7/26/2019 at 10:24 AM, GRHorn said:

Took Elizabeth Warren to win Iowa Caucus. Will pay a little over 4-1. I think progressive change will win out over let’s go back to Obama. Warren has done good job co-opting Bernie policies and I think there’s an undercurrent of Dems wanting another woman to face Trump. I think Kamala wins the whole thing, but in white Iowa, it’s Warren. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5241/Who-will-win-the-2020-Iowa-Democratic-caucuses

Boy what a terrible Kamala take. 

Sold Warren at $0.35 to win Iowa for 46% profit. Still think she looks good but I think it will take a while for her to get much higher with a still pretty sizable field. 

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C572FF72-C859-40F8-8404-CB5F85AFE2F0_zps

 

Yang at 0.10 is a real head scratcher.  I know the owner of twitter and Elon Musk are backing him but he is not a serious candidate.  

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Lols like I lucked out dumping Kamala even though mueller blew it. I think yang no is still a bet at .91. It will go to 99 when he drops. Elizabeth warren is in for the long haul and still a buy imo. Feeling very good about Bernie no and Biden no positions. Still looking to exit Pete and Julian. 

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Warren gonna get people PAD. 

Pete needs to do something. Low expecatatikns for Julian but just want a couple points to get back to even. 

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10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Back the truck up on yang NO. Free 10%. 

13.6%.  Bernie NO at over 17% looks pretty good too.  Biden and Warren still have a lot of room to run up on the YES side when they're inevitably the last two standing.

Edited by WBT

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6 hours ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Are you able to instantly sell at any point or are you reliant on a buyer in order for the transaction to close? 

There is usually a buyer in the high volume market but the price can fluctuate. For example, there is currently a buyer at .89 for 25k shares of Yang NO. Once that bid is exhausted, .88 for 7k shares.  The dem primary is a pretty well traded market. There are probably others where it could be difficult to move shares as result of lack of buyers, which would result in price fluctuations. The bigger risk to time sensitive trades is when the system gets overloaded like on election night and the servers go down. 

Edited by Anastasis

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On 11/5/2018 at 12:34 PM, Anastasis said:

Trump impeachment in first terms. YES @ 0.41.  Think this bumps after the Dems take the house and/or when the Mueller report is issued.

Currently trading @ .60.  I thought that this was dead money.  Sold a bit last night, and will sell a big chunk at 4PM ET when Nancy does her press conference. 

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On 9/24/2019 at 11:57 AM, Anastasis said:

Currently trading @ .60.  I thought that this was dead money.  Sold a bit last night, and will sell a big chunk at 4PM ET when Nancy does her press conference. 

It’s now 51 no 49 Yes.  8 points today.....

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1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

Its now Yes .55

I think that you are looking at the impeach in 2019 market and not the first term market.  There is about a dime spread between the two. 

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Yes.  There is will He be impeached in 2019 and will he be impeached in his first term.

In 2019: on  September 1st Yes was .11it is now .55

1st term: on  September 1st Yes was .24 it is now .68

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7 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Yes.  There is will He be impeached in 2019 and will he be impeached in his first term.

In 2019: on  September 1st Yes was .11it is now .55

1st term: on  September 1st Yes was .24 it is now .68

tenor.png

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Based on the betting markets, you’d think the race is already over. Hillary Clinton is only a point behind Bernie.

BD3E20DF-6370-4A39-9C80-B2989D7CE0BF_zps

 

Iowa betting line is worse:

2BEEB5AA-7F07-433C-B8B3-CDC6EFA84DB6_zps

 

New Hampshire is not close:

6CC716B1-1122-4497-BCA5-BEFBE0EC66B4_zps

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This bet has been underwater since I placed it, but trending back up.  Added a little to Brexit by 11/1. Basis now 0.45, currently trading at 0.39. Deal to be voted on soon. Goldman came out with note today they still place 75% Odds of Brexit happening before deadline. They are, for obvious reasons, pretty plugged in to global politics.

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On 9/28/2019 at 10:30 PM, Continental Op said:

Does that settle when he drops out or would I have to wait until the Dem convention? 

The stated terms are pretty ambiguous. I’m guessing if they dropped out you get paid. Even if they wait to make it official you can typically cash out for 0.99

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Impeachment markets put presents under the tree. 

Rolling into a few easy dimes:

Will Michelle Obama run for president in 2020? NO @ 0.91. 

Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? NO @ 0.84

 

 

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DJT Jr. Indictment by 12/2019 YES cleaned my clock. 

Upside down in the 2020 Presidential winner at the moment w/ Dem YES position. 

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Yeah... I will be somewhat surprised if he DOESN'T win the electoral college but there is no way in hell he wins the popular vote. 

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11 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Yeah... I will be somewhat surprised if he DOESN'T win the electoral college but there is no way in hell he wins the popular vote. 

Hard to believe that he won’t perform much worse in the solidly blue states especially CA and NY. And Biden isn’t as polarizing as Hillary so that will hurt trump even more in the popular race. 

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D House, D Senate is 40 cents. 

If you think Kris Kobach will be the nominee in Kansas, Democratic shares are 31 cents.

If my math is correct, the computed moneylines on the positions listed are +132 on the popular vote, +222 on the Congress makeup, and +283 on Kansas. 

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mpu


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