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I thought it might be helpful to have a separate topic related to the vaccine.  If this is too much duplication, mods please delete this thread.  I thought it would be good to talk about who can get the vaccine, where they can get it, what side effects people are seeing, and in general what is going on with distribution.

The CDC has published vaccine distribution guidelines, and if you care, they are worth reading.  They are dividing the timeline into:

  • Phase 1 - Potentially limited supply of COVID-19 vaccine doses available
  • Phase 2 - Large number of vaccine doses available
  • Phase 3 - Sufficient supply of vaccine doses for entire population

Who you are will determine if you are eligible for a vaccine in the various phases.

Phase 1 is divided into a Phase 1a and a Phase 1b:

  • Phase 1a - Mostly healthcare workers
  • Phase 1b - Other essential workers, people with higher risks, people over 65

If you are eligible to get the vaccine and they have in in stock and you want to get it, it is important to go get it.  Both of the first two vaccines can spoil, so if a dose is sitting there and you aren't there to get it, they might have to throw it away.

Both vaccines require two shots.  It is important to go get that second shot.

Who fits in phase 1b and who has to wait until phase 2 might be a sticking point.  The "people in higher risks" category includes a lot of folks, maybe more than you would think might be in that category.  Hopefully we can quickly get to phase 2 so that we don't spend too long arguing about who is or is not in Phase 1b.

Anyway, I'm interested in everyone's experience with the vaccine and especially getting the word out for those that can go get it, so that every dose ends up in an arm rather than in the trash.

 

 

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Chewbacca

Legacy Members

But if we can’t get rid of it, and vaccinated people can contract and transmit it, what’s to stop it from mutating into a vaccine-resistant strain at any point in in the future? Or are we just hoping that the historical trend of viruses mutating to be more transmissible but less severe holds true?
Fewer infections (vaccines are 40-75% effective at preventing infection for Delta, much higher for others) means fewer mutations.

atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
48 minutes ago, XYZ said:

No. We know that covid infects different animals, so it’s circulating (and mutating) in the animal world.

Covid ain't going away.  H1N1 (Swine Flu) was nasty, then mutated (for the better), and is now with us permanently, and we don't even care.

On a side note, H1N1 didn't affect many over the age of 65, and the thinking is that they were exposed to another strain in their younger years.

Zepol87

Legacy Members
17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Covid ain't going away.  H1N1 (Swine Flu) was nasty, then mutated (for the better), and is now with us permanently, and we don't even care.

On a side note, H1N1 didn't affect many over the age of 65, and the thinking is that they were exposed to another strain in their younger years.

Damn I forgot about that. 

Judge Roybeanbag

Legacy Members
56 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Can you link a peer reviewed (or even non peer reviewed but empiric, evidence based) study critical of any of the vaccines that has been censored?

He can’t.   He works in feelings only, you know, like these guys. 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Legacy Members

Just in case anyone thinks all hope is lost, it’s not. Enjoying watching my so on the beach with his girl.  Dude is much more impressive than his old man  

spacer.png

 

Judge Roybeanbag

Legacy Members
7 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

Weird flex but okay.

He’s a covid kid, cut him some slack.   Also trying to graduate with a computer science degree, which is hard these days, but he will walk next spring.   Yay public schools!

Judge Roybeanbag

Legacy Members

I mainly just wanted to post that girls ass though.  Sorry for partying.  

StruggleBus

Full Members
25 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I mainly just wanted to post that girls ass though.  Sorry for partying.  

We’ll forgive you if you... uh... post more of her 

Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:


There’s no money in ivermectin, and it has been around for a very long time. Neither of those things can be said about the covid vaccines. That makes certain people feel better about it.

Fda approved doses of ivermectin do not result in concentrations that inhibit viral replication in vitro. So if they have a valid script they might as well be eating mentos. At least then they would have fresh breath

atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

Have you told your son how many times you’ve jerked it to his girlfriend?

Joey Reaction GIF

MNLonghornFUKM

Legacy Members

Judge be like while snapping that creep shot


ffbfe533d9e6ff032ffd76432eda62f1.jpg

sidis

Burnt Ends
2 hours ago, Jersey Man10 said:

Weird flex but okay.

Hardest I’ve laughed in a week. 

Liquor and Poker

Certifiably Surly
4 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Fda approved doses of ivermectin do not result in concentrations that inhibit viral replication in vitro. So if they have a valid script they might as well be eating mentos. At least then they would have fresh breath

And they’d be full of life

Telegraph_it

Legacy Members

I’m on team, this peaked Aug 11th. I have nothing to qualify this with other then the study posted pages back. 
 

This virus seem to really do it’s own thing. Mitigation efforts seem to move case load somewhat but overall trends seem like they do what they do. 
 

Let’s see that Frikin steep decline of positive cases please. 

South Austin

Certifiably Surly

Saying we’ve peaked right before school starts is pretty bold. I hope you’re right, but I think throwing a large population of unvaccinated kids into schools will keep the numbers high for a little while longer.

midtown

Certifiably Surly
Just in case anyone thinks all hope is lost, it’s not. Enjoying watching my so on the beach with his girl.  Dude is much more impressive than his old man  
B40-E6134-A5-FF-4779-8569-F84-BC2-C980-AB.jpg
 
Which one is your son? I see two boys

Anastasis

Certifiably Surly
(edited)

I thought that “so” was short hand for “significant other”. Nttiawwt.

Edited by Anastasis

Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

I’m on team, this peaked Aug 11th. I have nothing to qualify this with other then the study posted pages back. 
 

This virus seem to really do it’s own thing. Mitigation efforts seem to move case load somewhat but overall trends seem like they do what they do. 
 

Let’s see that Frikin steep decline of positive cases please. 


This link was updated yesterday with data through the 9th

 

https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/about-virus-and-testing/forecasting-model.html


image.png.0a58c3de7c4f114cc05856b04ac90af4.png

Muy Frio

crowd sourced
46 minutes ago, midtown said:
10 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:
Just in case anyone thinks all hope is lost, it’s not. Enjoying watching my so on the beach with his girl.  Dude is much more impressive than his old man  
B40-E6134-A5-FF-4779-8569-F84-BC2-C980-AB.jpg
 

Which one is your son? I see two boys

Lol. Yeah the ass is pretty flat. 

midtown

Certifiably Surly

Anyone kind of  curious as to how fairly close the blue and green are?  One is mask mandates and one is not?  Virtually identical

Muy Frio

crowd sourced
6 minutes ago, midtown said:

Anyone kind of  curious as to how fairly close the blue and green are?  One is mask mandates and one is not?  Virtually identical

The question kind of answers itself. 

Newdoc

Legacy Members
13 minutes ago, midtown said:

Anyone kind of  curious as to how fairly close the blue and green are?  One is mask mandates and one is not?  Virtually identical

This assumes we give a damn like we did in the summer of 2020.

 

Overall, we don’t. Muh freedoms!

midtown

Certifiably Surly
(edited)
8 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Overall, we don’t. Muh freedoms!

I am a 100% masker.  I even throw mine on at my circle K because it says "we request".   I just wonder if their effectivenes is nullified by the number of vaccinations plus people already recovered and the high transmission etc.  

Edited by midtown

Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly

The prediction of a peak on August 11th makes zero sense without including a location. Or does the predictor think that Aug 11th is the peak for the US?

For Texas, there is no way in hell yesterday was the peak. For MO, AR and LA? Possible they've peaked, especially MO. MO also started to see a rise in case about a month before Texas. Based on that math, Texas still has a month to go.

Florida is tough to measure because they are non-transparent with their data. Florida does release new case counts 5 days per week but only provide county totals on Fridays.  It's just the worst FL wave so far, so less info is better. I guess. eyeroll.

Below is the NYTimes graph of cases. Light red bars are the daily new cases; dark red line 7-day average. Don't be fooled that the daily #s peaked the other day. that was Monday which always includes some weekend #s for states that will only report on weekdays.

 

 

Capture - Copy (2).JPG

midtown

Certifiably Surly
(edited)
7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Or does the predictor think that Aug 11th is the peak for the US?

Its US and it's not a prediction.  It's a data driven forecast.  

Edited by midtown

Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
2 minutes ago, midtown said:

Its US and it's not a prediction.  It's a data driven forecast.  

Unfortunately that forecast will be proven wrong by the end of the day.

midtown

Certifiably Surly

But at this point it looks to be pretty crazy close and hopefully only off by a few days if so vs the Oct timeline others have forecasted.  

We're trying to be nice guys here Eddie.  

Longhornlax

Legacy Members

The October prediction was for Dallas county

Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
4 minutes ago, midtown said:

But at this point it looks to be pretty crazy close and hopefully only off by a few days if so vs the Oct timeline others have forecasted.  

We're trying to be nice guys here Eddie.  

I think we're all getting confused. There are different forecasts that are being mentioned in this thread. The new US case forecast vs hospitalization. And the UTSouthwestern forecast above is for DFW hospitalization rates. The chance of that aligning to the US case count is about zero.

midtown

Certifiably Surly

You skipped a few pages

MNLonghornFUKM

Legacy Members
The prediction of a peak on August 11th makes zero sense without including a location. Or does the predictor think that Aug 11th is the peak for the US?
For Texas, there is no way in hell yesterday was the peak. For MO, AR and LA? Possible they've peaked, especially MO. MO also started to see a rise in case about a month before Texas. Based on that math, Texas still has a month to go.
Florida is tough to measure because they are non-transparent with their data. Florida does release new case counts 5 days per week but only provide county totals on Fridays.  It's just the worst FL wave so far, so less info is better. I guess. eyeroll.
Below is the NYTimes graph of cases. Light red bars are the daily new cases; dark red line 7-day average. Don't be fooled that the daily #s peaked the other day. that was Monday which always includes some weekend #s for states that will only report on weekdays.
 
 
1750630787_Capture-Copy(2).thumb.JPG.4dbb5007b8e4c30598dbb35273df1e7e.JPG

Hard to grasp any of the data when a ton of states stopped reporting weekend numbers. Monday reports Friday, Tuesday reports Sat/Sun/Mon, then Wednesday kicks into normal reporting until Saturday. Rinse/repeat.


At least that’s what’s done here in Minnesota. Always thought it was strange to stop reporting weekends during delta.

Enchubben

Full Members
17 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yet an apparently decent sized group that don’t trust big pharma have no problem taking ivermectin, which was developed by little old Merck 40 years ago. 

I agree with what you’re saying, but those people would probably argue that the horse paste has 40 years of results and the vaccine around 9months. 

 

Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
17 hours ago, midtown said:

Anyone recall my post about fundatrat predicting August 11 as the Delta peak? And it was dismissed? Fingers crossed.   Tweet posted.

 

We're talking about different peaks. Most people here are talking about new case or hospitalization counts. I'm not saying that reproduction # counts aren't a good forward looking forecast but its the least important # in terms of what matters to people. As an example, that sites shows that FL peaked in the reproduction # on July 14th. Florida case count is still rising 29 days later. And the hospitalization and death rates will peak even further down the line.

Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Hard to grasp any of the data when a ton of states stopped reporting weekend numbers. Monday reports Friday, Tuesday reports Sat/Sun/Mon, then Wednesday kicks into normal reporting until Saturday. Rinse/repeat.


At least that’s what’s done here in Minnesota. Always thought it was strange to stop reporting weekends during delta.

Agree. Looking at the 7-day average eliminates that to some extent.

GreenspointTexas

Certifiably Surly

After decreasing for 3 straight days, US covid cases have increased by 25% and 22% each of the last 2 days. 
 

i was hoping we had peaked but we arent even close

tbone_

Legacy Members

Packed football stadiums coming soon. Seems like should be helpful to the numbers, especially in the highly vaxxed areas of the south east.

Captainant

Certifiably Surly
1 minute ago, tbone_ said:

Packed football stadiums coming soon. Seems like should be helpful to the numbers, especially in the highly vaxxed areas of the south east.

COVID is about to show off its SEC SPEED

Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
1 hour ago, midtown said:

it's not a prediction.  It's a data driven forecast.  

Um wat

Brisketexan

Legacy Members
3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Um wat

Wait, you don't get the difference?

confused-math.gif

Cheeseweasel

Legacy Members
6 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Packed football stadiums coming soon. Seems like should be helpful to the numbers, especially in the highly vaxxed areas of the south east.

WHOA NELLY! 

Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly

 

 

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

horse paste has 40 years of results

Vs SARS-2? Do tell

 

babysdaddy

Legacy Members

The SEC is going to be first to full herd immunity given their behavior.  Delta getting them ready for football season

wildcat09

Full Members

 

 

 

This is the price of telling people the vaccines are dangerous and ivermectin is 100% effective.

Cheeseweasel

Legacy Members

Viruses are pretty fucking effective too.

Chewbacca

Legacy Members
8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

 

 

This is the price of telling people the vaccines are dangerous and ivermectin is 100% effective.

At least that guy had the courage to follow his convictions and not seek medical help when he supposedly doesn't trust the medical community.  Good for him.  More should be like him.

OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys

Full Members

What death toll would it take to reach these people? I think it has to be enough to reach their primary defense: selfishness.  This isn't happening to me, therefore I don't need to act.

I think it would have to be in the few percent range:  3million, 6million, something like that.  It would need to get so that every little community of 1000 people would have enough deaths that everyone would know multiple people fairly close to them that died.  I think you can always claim this is someone else's problem until it gets to that level.  At 600,000 deaths, we are only 10-20% of the way there.

I don't think sicknesses will ever move the needle.  It has to be deaths.  Getting sick and surviving only means these people out freedomed it, and it is a red badge of courage.

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