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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. The Houston Chronicle just threw its support behind Sri Kulkarni in TX-22. My my, how times have changed. Pete Olson used to be the kind of business-friendly Republican that the Chron would have endorsed back in February under a more normal political environment. (That's the breaks when you and your ilk sign a petition to give the Dotard the Nobel Peace Prize over the NK photo op.) I talked to one of the Kulkarni campaign heads about polling, or the lack thereof, in the district. He acknowledged that its been harder to find volunteers in Brazoria County, which is where the election could be lost, but their feelers indicated they had the lead in Fort Bend County and that the race should be considered a toss-up. Just another idea if you're looking to throw another $25 with Act Blue to a campaign that isn't taking PAC money in a district that may be in play.
  2. Enjoy the win. I knew we were in trouble last week when you guys had a pulse against UW while we shat the bed against Rumlin.
  3. Beto's giant haul this quarter amounted to not even fifty bucks from over 800 thousand different donors. For the cost of a couple of movie tickets, those same people can go donate for someone else. Surely that has to be easier than being the GOP and having to knock on the door of some mega-donor and grovel for another $50 million.
  4. Round one of Beto's GOTV effort begins this weekend. They want to knock on over 100,000 doors in two days and make an equal number of phone calls. It would be informative to check where things stand in the polls to see if each campaigns' GOTV effort has any effect as we get closer to election day. Ultimately, comparison between the polls leading up to election day and the actual election result could give us some idea of what kind of impact GOTV has in Texas. Right now: RCP polling average = Cruz +7.0 538 adjusted polls = Cruz +5.6% 538 "classic" forecast = Cruz +4.9%
  5. I gave only to the democratic US Senator, US House, and TX House candidates running in my respective state and districts. If someone else wants to throw money at candidates outside of their state or district, more power to them. I don't want to be that kind of player, yet.
  6. That's what flyers are for. I went knocking for Sri Kulkarni for TX-22 on Sunday and everyone at least took a flyer, even if they said they weren't voting. Three weeks ago I canvassed for Beto and they did pins and stickers but told me to go easy on the flyers because they're expensive. You fuckers better keep donating! Good story, though. I've only gone canvassing these two times in my whole life and I can at least say I'm better than this Allred guy. Some people are "in a hurry" but even the non-voters will talk to you if you pry a little. The anti-PAC money thing is a really good icebreaker. Seriously, though. There are a ton of first time door-knockers like myself walking around out there.
  7. As much as I'd like to agree with you, I can't. Jimmy was 8 years ago.
  8. What a weird ass team these Utah boys are, but I can't complain.
  9. I just saw the attack ad aimed at Beto about the eminent domain thing. Seems a little too inside baseball to make any difference.
  10. The polls lag behind reality by a week or so, so we won't know what effect the confirmation has had until early-middle of next week. That also means that, closing in on election day, things won't be as bad as the polls would suggest, assuming some sort of reversion to the mean. We'll see Trump's approval "peak" at around 43%, which seems to be his ceiling post-inauguration.
  11. An accusation would be enough for me to cancel the interview and pull out another resume from the stack.
  12. Those dudes in Montana aren't knee-jerk Republicans. Tester is going to get reelected and Gianforte is vulnerable.
  13. There's also the whole indicting a sitting president thing on which BK, and only BK, has stated his opinion. I recall Flake grilling him on this specifically during the hearing, as well as the broader Russia investigation. I don't recall Flake signaling he was satisfied with what BK had said. Sexual assault is one thing, but we've all heard a multitude of other reasons why this dude shouldn't be on the supreme court, particularly propping up a president under criminal investigation. Strange that sexual assault still matters at all to the GOP, when all of those other red flags didn't mean shit (except maybe to Flake).
  14. What about Flake? I thought he was still on the fence, with the added bonus that he happens to serve on the committee.
  15. I agree Beto needs to come up with some more one-liners. "True to form" was a hell of a start.
  16. His district is as red as it gets, but wow...
  17. Ted has the numbers advantage, so his strategy is to play it safe. Considering who is registered and who generally shows up to vote, he gets to be his usual, shitty self. The base is all that counts and everyone else can fuck right off. Beto knows he only wins by appealing to as many different types of people as possible. Mission accomplished, although his task is still daunting. Overall, I give Beto the nod, since he gains name recognition just by being on the tube or the radio, and name recognition is what he's still lacking.
  18. Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19. This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.
  19. There are 5.5 million names in the Democratic Party VAN. That's the number of voters the GOTV campaign is going to attempt to reach in the month before the election. Likely voters might constitute only about half of that number. So if total turnout is ~5 million as you say, Beto wins this thing going away if even a small fraction of the intended GOTV targets wind up at the polls. Realistic turnout will be in the 7 million range, approaching 2008 numbers, including more Republican voters than normal. https://betofortexas.com/plan/?source=texting So, no, 200,000 libertarians are not the focus, nor should they be. I was on a organizing conference call this past Saturday (I think by mistake) with a couple hundred new volunteers, mostly from out of state. About half planned on flying to Texas in the few weeks before the election to block walk (no shit) and much of the rest planned on phone banking. Maybe most of them don't show up, but we could be in the midst of a historic GOTV effort starting in October. If the Quinnipiac poll tomorrow shows a tie or a small Beto lead for the first time then the sharks will smell blood in the water.
  20. There are lots of LSU fans in the greater Houston area, and that isn't because of aggy.
  21. Oregon improved almost immediately when he started as OC back in 2007 and was in the national title game by 2010. In his first season with the Eagles they went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Even in the NFL, he had early success. It took a few seasons for any problems to surface at both gigs, including recruiting violations at Oregon. There really isn't precedent for this kind of start at any of his stops except for his lone season with the 9'ers. I'll resist going down the rabbit hole that is Tedford at Cal except to note that his health problems were stress related. He should be able to sustain his success at an institution that is overall more friendly toward football.
  22. I see no need to change the rankings from week 2 to week 3. Next week will be fun. Furd plays in Eugene, Washington hosts the Herm, and bottom feeders Zona and OSU have their pillow fight.
  23. Q: What do you call someone of European heritage from a Spanish speaking country who no longer speaks Spanish? A: A white dude.
  24. You fuckers took Tre from us. Y'all better keep feeding him the ball.
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