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Hagbard Celine

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Everything posted by Hagbard Celine

  1. rewatching the penals.... did not know mls2 ties go to penals..... freese was 5 of 6 in philly union mls2 penals..... freese went the wrong way on the tico's first kick then guessed correctly on the next 5 there are lots of datapoints out there about penals..... +++ To determine the chance of correctly guessing the outcome of 5 consecutive penalty kicks, the probability of guessing correctly on a single kick is needed . 1. Probability of guessing correctly on a single penalty kick: Assuming each penalty kick has two outcomes (goal or miss), the probability of guessing correctly by chance would be 1/2 or 50%. 2. Probability of guessing correctly on 5 consecutive penalty kicks: Because each penalty kick is considered an independent event, the probability of guessing all 5 correctly can be calculated by multiplying the probability of guessing each kick correctly together. Therefore, the probability of guessing 5 consecutive penalty kicks correctly is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = (1/2)^5 = 1/32. Result: The chance of correctly guessing the outcome of 5 consecutive penalty kicks is 1/32 or approximately 3.125%. Note: This calculation assumes a simple 50/50 chance for each penalty kick outcome. In reality, the probability of a penalty kick resulting in a goal is significantly higher, around 75-80%. However, when simply guessing the outcome without any knowledge of the player or situation, a 50/50 chance is a reasonable assumption. +++ According to BBC, only 4% of penalties shot down the middle of the goal are saved. In contrast, 16% of penalties shot to the side are saved. However, shooting down the middle can also increase the chances of hitting the woodwork (7%) or missing the target completely (17%). Other factors that can affect the outcome of a penalty kick include: Goalkeeper's position According to InnerDrive, goalkeepers are twice as likely to save a penalty if they stay in the middle of the goal instead of diving to the side. However, a 2021 study by Ben Lyttleton found that the middle of the goal is actually where goalkeepers save the most penalties. Goalkeeper's anticipation Goalkeepers who can anticipate the direction of the kick have a better chance of making a save. Goalkeeper's height and reach Taller goalkeepers with longer reaches may have an advantage in covering the goal. Psychological tactics Goalkeepers can use psychological tactics to distract the kicker. For example, a goalkeeper can stand slightly off-center to bias the penalty taker into kicking to the side with more space, allowing the goalkeeper to dive in that direction. +++ the bolded part about going down the middle and skying the ball, especially if the attempt is a panenka soft-loft, doesn't seem to make sense, but recall baggio 94 to fucking LOSE the world cup: +++ freese won this shootout over the world's former #1 navas is the most-decorated goalkeeeper in concacaf history - if you don't know it check it out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keylor_Navas they both achieved an incredible statistical improbability of guessing correctly 5 in a row if there are 3 possible choices, left-center-right then making 5 correct choices in a row is not .5*.5 etc. it's .33 * .33 * .33 * .33 * .33 = 0.004 and they both did it (navas kicks 1-5, freese kicks 2-6) maybe i've seen battling keepers guess 5 in a row but i don't remember it so freese' achievement is more remarkable in that on the day he did it besting the former world #1 when navas was also channeling the force with all-galaxy form +++ choosing left right or down the middle is not the same thing as making the save - and that's how freese won navas choices 1 correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved 2 correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved 3 correct - missed goal - not saveable - "saved" 4 correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved 5 correct - on goal - saveable - saved 6 not correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved freese choices 1 not correct - on goal - not saveable - not saved 2 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved 3 - correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved 4 - correct - on goal - fingertips - not saved 5 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved (statue panenka!) (this is how the match was won) 6 - correct - on goal - saveable - saved so the tale of the tape... saveable - saved: navas 1 freese 3 fingertips - not saved: navas 2 freese 2 not saveable - not saved: navas 2 freese 1 at the end of the day, the nats took 1 better kick, with a keeper that made +2 saves, when both keepers guessed correctly 5 in a row, despite beerholder2 keeping navas alive this is just incredible when compared to the marianas trench graveyard of the three lions in tournament penals - you could see it in the ticos faces - with navas they were sure they were going to prevail +++ shots down the middle ticos: 2 nats: 0 i don't have a take on this but it's interesting - i don't recall any team going down the middle more than once in one set of penals +++ sod over turf remains a FULL AGGY decision only concalaugh and mls can justify to themselves +++ the older berhalter girl is going to be a supermodel however, like father like son the family karma is not copacetic with national team football
  2. thank you plorant i know i haven't seen it
  3. europe is not the problem it's big club big money contracts that are the problem keller was in the top 5 in the world so he was able to hold down the #1 position for millwall, leicester and rayo vallecano across 9 seasons he only held the #1 job at spurs for 1 year and then primarily played in cups the last 3 seasons managing 85 total appearances across 4 years at that point he was the US #2 and i would rate him only in the top 25 in the world after 78 games as the #1 for borussia mönchengladbach then a few months with fulham he came home to seattle forest, despite being in the wilderness for 30 years, have 2 stars above their crest they think they are a massive side no american keeper at a massive side is going to keep the #1 job without absolute perfection - 1 mistake and they're out - see howard, tim turner did not have the resume to sign with forest but the money was sweet - the expectation for us keepers in england is leicester/keller and black-villa/friedel the best us keeper in history is brad friedel he was top 5 in the world in 02 coming out of japan/korea here's his career: 1995–1996 Galatasaray 30 1996–1997 Columbus Crew 38 1997–2000 Liverpool 31 (THREE YEARS ONLY 31 APPS) 2000–2008 Blackburn Rovers 288 2008–2011 Aston Villa 114 2011–2015 Tottenham Hotspur 67 (granted at the end of his career but 67 apps across all comps over FOUR YEARS) us keepers should never sign straight in to the prem much less a massive side like turner did rev -> arsenal in 1 year at arsenal he had 7 appearances and 4 clean sheets he wasted a year and derailed his career for a cut of a $6m transfer fee and now he's definitely not the nats #1 maybe there is news out there i can't find but the forest->lyon $9m transfer story is 3 weeks stale i hope it falls through - ligue 1 is a terrible place for americans he needs to go to the eredivisie and take minimum wage (whatever that is) to start for a contending side so he has a chance to compete with freese how fickle are the soccer gods? ethan horvath came off the bench in the first concalaugh nations league final, saved a pk and was the hero of the night in denver 4 years ago after those heroics, with his brugge contract expired, he went to..... forest.... BEFORE promotion...., where he was graciously allowed the following starts in 21-22: Championship: 7 FA Cup: 2 League Cup (EFL Cup): 2 forest loaned him to luton and he was their #1 with 51 appearances and got luton promoted cardiff wanted some of that and thought horvath could take them to the prem after regaining the #1 job in feb this year he signed a 3.5-year deal through the end of the 27-28 season here's the ai description of what happened to horvath over the last year: +++ Ethan Horvath was the starting goalkeeper for Cardiff City at the beginning of the 2024-25 EFL Championship season. He started the first four league matches before being replaced by Jak Alnwick. He lost the #1 job on August 31, 2024. The reasons for this change were not explicitly stated, but comments from analysts suggest: Horvath had a difficult performance in a 5-0 loss to Burnley. Some analysts questioned his confidence and comfort level with playing the ball out from the back. There were concerns about his shot-stopping, which had previously been considered a strength. It is worth noting that Horvath regained the starting position in February 2025 and played well, but Cardiff City was ultimately relegated to League One. It is expected that Horvath may leave the club in the summer transfer window. +++ can he get out of the 3-year deal? can he land someplace that has a supporting cast? can that place in europe be visible to the us soccer community that creates the buzz around a player? +++ the worst thing mls could do would be to sell freese to cash in on the instant buzz from last night therefore, i expect that is exactly what they will do
  4. Hagbard Celine

    Rush

  5. the league has set up the aggy coaster for it's october crash both utsa and utah state will make aggy use their starters deep in to the 2nd half aggy starters will be roasting while up less than 3 scores on utah state, and domer will be on exercise bikes watching, because they are off that week in the last 2 months of this thread i only read 1 comment about domer, how texags approaches that game will be interesting - moral victory in advance or sleeper awakens? they are off after domer then have the 2 easiest sec games on their schedule at home, at which point they *should* be 4-1 with florida at pyle on october 11th then they go to fayettenam and death valley for probable night games that has 4-4 written all over it
  6. this female ref is really good and there is an interesting dynamic she brings to handbags situations - at least with these 2 teams they immediately back down from each other when she steps in
  7. and klopp is right only concalaugh would have panama playing in honduras' color
  8. @harpercollins can you fit 2 pillows in a 3.5 queen? and the speedqueen reviews are going downhill the last couple of years - how old is yours
  9. had a hell of a winter and spring so did not have a chance to get this in imax nice of netflix to spring for some quality content rather than their own made-up bullshit spacefiller my rating is a tufnel-11 the workprint received a 10-minute ovation at venice '21 they need to bring the 3 of them together in a room while they are still alive and yes, being lz, they have to do it
  10. to be fair, that's not a claimed natty, the ap did vote and did award that title however the ap DID NOT award a trophy for the first 5 titles (1936-1940) so if there *IS* a trophy in the blimp hangar, it's fake it should also be noted that aggy holds a unique distinction that can never be repeated reminder that for 30ish years the ap (and then coaches) polls were taken and titles awarded BEFORE the bowls aggy were awarded their 1939 title undefeated at 11-0, outscoring the opposition 212 to 31 HOWEVER tennessee were 10-0, and outscored their opposition 212 to 0 they scored the same number of points, but aggy needed an extra game to do it; tennessee were the defending national champions since the start of the bcs, and now with the playoffs, it is impossible for a team to be unbeaten, untied and unscored upon, and not win the national title advantage: aggy
  11. you never posted the pics of the 3-way with your wife and her bestie
  12. the ag swag index is trending low as we head in to the heat of summer there are 5 bellwether houses in my neighborhood that can be counted on to have gone full aggy cornholio by the summer solstice and only 1 of them has their flag out as of wednesday
  13. bump 4.5 or 5 cubic feet, agitator, no lid lock, no extra bullshit is such a thing even possible? no, no it's not front-load washers prevent precise chem control so they are unpossible the only top-load washers i can find with no lid lock are speedqueen tc5x series which are all 3.5 cubic feet so that takes out the no lid lock requirement any new comments or experiences in the last 9 months?
  14. also, re: tds, it's another magtard gobbledygook acronym artificially created with inverse connection to the prior timeline, like woke, dei, etc. i am saddened that people educated at The University can think it and speak it and write it with conviction - the truth has not set them free
  15. the saud will make sure dotard's cut is proportionate to his penis
  16. obama was a marxist, communist, muslim, atheist
  17. the basis for your criticism is the word "seem" that's lazy and pointless criticism let me tell you what i would be impressed by i would be impressed by deployment of bot drones that commanded the drivers of the escape trucks, in farsi, to stop, exit their vehicles, and give them 30 seconds to run before those trucks were destroyed, said drones then taking samples of the carcasses of the trucks, and then flying those samples to swiss or UN authorities in kuwait for testing is that lazy enough for you?
  18. i fucked up - i should have typed "radio silence does not equal NO global encrypted comms" - i think we are agreeing with each other
  19. to me it's not it's 2025 it would have been impressive in 1975 we've been spending double-digit billions annually on black-world undisclosed technology for 75 years
  20. this isn't magic radio voice silence does not equal global encrypted comms
  21. as far as the mission itself, the flight computers in all of the b2s were communicating encrypted by satellite and BACN-capable global hawks that were far enough away on flight profiles that would give no triangulation with the attack squadron assets back in the us could watch the flight computers achieve their programmed perfection - there was no "radio silence", this isn't yamamoto's eastern operation task force on 2 june 41 the greatest problem with discovery of the mission and loss of surprise would the the kc-46 refueling sequences which are visible to radar IF THEY ARE IN RANGE OF RADAR.... ..... unless we have a mobile cloaking platform that defeats radar ..... or unless the refueling took place WAY out away from land... i'll come back to this the question of intrigue on this mission: what asset was used for refueling? the kc-135 has been the frontline operational refueling platform for 70 years, and we still use them they are being gradually replaced by the kc-46... they were forward-deployed on the 15th with the -135s .... was this it's first mission? great set of headlines: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-forward-deploys-dozens-aerial-tankers-iran about the invisible plane stuff, the clowns need to shut the fuck up you and i have paid a metric fuckton for janet and the ranch over the last 5 decades before reading this article i would also note that no replacement was ever announced for the sr-71 ... announced .... https://www.twz.com/29543/the-visible-history-of-the-militarys-hunt-to-realize-an-invisible-aircraft
  22. disagree on evidence pointing to mission being any of your spoiled points all evidence points towards the real mission being bailing out fucking bibi who went off script and started a skywar (over jordan and iraq) when it was clear there was not a consensus with the us in advance, said bibi biting off more than he could chew creating a problem he knew he couldn't solve and the clown show would have no other option than to fix it and kudos to bibi - he saw an opening with the domestic unrest the clown regime was embroiled in and blindsided us
  23. walkon? 5-star? grad transfer? portal master? nil? everyone can earn their stars here if they have the character to "we" not "me"
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