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Hagbard Celine

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Everything posted by Hagbard Celine

  1. Mercury is also visible RIGHT NOW at sunset and is currently brighter than Sirius, 2 fists below Jupiter in the west: https://www.space.com/mercury-at-its-best-march-2024
  2. planet locations in totality: hold out your fist at arms length.... Venus: 1 first from the Sun/Moon, down and to the right Jupiter: 3 fists up and to the left of the Sun/Moon Mars & Saturn: 10 degrees above the southwest horizon, they will be difficult to see the "devil comet" MAY be visible WITH BINOCULARS (and only try during totality) to the right of Jupiter search results for Uranus were scarce, and it's barely visible to the eye; Neptune is not visible without optics
  3. showtime eagle pass totality begins at 1327, clarksville totality ends at 1349 22 minutes that will determine your once-in-a-lifetime lotto result 240317.1826z T-1 minute haze continues to dog the metroplex millions will miss out on the full show, no planets or galaxy for the metroplex if you picked West, Hillsboro, Italy or Ennis, jackpot south of waco? 100% fucked guesstimate on number of people in path that witness it: 10%, tops
  4. burying this every so often for the consideration of centexians based on historical cloud cover probabilities obviously, today, sunday 17th, it would not have helped and there would be no way to recover without crossing the border
  5. here we are, 10 minutes ago, 1801z, 1:01 PM TT, with the skies miraculously parting between Waco and I-20; TEXTOT up to 8% visible:
  6. 240317.1701z 12:01 PM Texas Time At Noon it looked like 98% of Texas Totality (TEXTOT) was fucked today with the exception of the swath near Waco that started opening up about 1130am....
  7. better link to the gootraffic nationwide https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1lf1zQElZCKW8f0gTbY_b06wIfA4&hl=en_US&ll=38.4142379177235%2C-100.9832660443961&z=5
  8. 2017 was in august 2024 is in april the instability in cloud coverage is going to be the biggest variable everyone that wanted to see 2017 but didn't will be going YOLO for this one i am concerned that the core infrastructure and supply chain have not begun pre-positioning for a worst-case influx of millions of unprepared, un-housed and un-fed interlopers from the east, southeast and midwest looking for cloud-free skies
  9. drill down to see the clusterfuck from st. louis to charleston https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1lf1zQElZCKW8f0gTbY_b06wIfA4&hl=en_US&ll=34.61062095450695%2C-82.16725056061048&z=9
  10. wyoming had it's highest ever population during the eclipse in 17
  11. so i'm finally getting in to some modeling of possible scenarios i'm going to post some stuff in the tree rat forum.... a couple of specific items i'm going to send to those that have requested it my biggest concern is what i'm calling the YOLOgoldilocks scenario...... RV ownership is at a record high with 11.2 million households owning an RV in 2021 Approximately 1 million Americans live in recreational vehicles full-time Over 40 million Americans regularly go RVing, with over 25 million RVing a year 38% of the 40 million Americans who own an RV are Millennials Approximately 9% of households in the United States own an RV for recreational purposes
  12. Hagbard Celine

    SpaceX

    t-6 mins they keep talking about scrubbing
  13. you forgot something..... without you there is no london, multilingual, heading out to cast her lots..... what is common amongst all of us? what starts here, changes the world
  14. no need to read this..... it confirms fdr and cvr were seized more than 20 hours ago https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/black-box-seized-by-authorities-investigating-latam-airlines-la800-flight-after-turbulence-issue-to-auckland/news-story/76fee35d0469f8fb93bd8f88c864defa the victor vector f=ma glove don't fit, and we have someone claiming access to the data claiming the boxes confirm what has been reported this is going to be interesting but the story is already in remission given the msm is simply repeating yesterday's news
  15. 1-second is what the guy in NZ said - that they know this - implied it's from the FDR and here we go: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/passenger-boeing-flight-suddenly-dropped-061959425.html Passenger on Boeing flight that suddenly dropped says pilot told him he lost control after instrument failure Kathleen Magramo, Manveena Suri and Alex Stambaugh, CNN Tue, March 12, 2024 at 1:24 PM CDT·4 min read 930 The pilot of a terrifying flight from Australia to New Zealand told those on board he temporarily lost control of his Boeing 787 after one of its instruments failed, a passenger said Monday, as authorities investigate what caused a sudden drop that threw travelers around the cabin, injuring dozens. In accordance with rules outlined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Chile’s Directorate General of Civil Aeronautics (DGAC) have sent investigators from the agency’s Operations and Airworthiness team to look into the incident, according to a statement released on Tuesday. “Given that the State of Registration of the aircraft involved is Chilean, it has been established with the New Zealand Transport Accident Investigation Commission (TAIC) that the investigation will be carried out by the Chilean Aeronautical Authority,” the statement read. The incident aboard LATAM Airlines flight 800 from Sydney to Auckland is the latest to hit troubled aircraft manufacturer Boeing, which has been rocked by years of quality and safety issues. Passenger Brian Jokat described the horrifying moment when he was woken from his sleep as the aircraft “dropped something to the effect of 500 feet instantly.” “That’s when I opened my eyes and there was various individuals at the top of the plane. Just stuck to the roof and then they fell to the floor. And then I just realized I’m not in a movie, this is actually for real,” he told CNN’s Erin Burnett. After landing in Auckland, Jokat said the pilot checked on the passengers and explained he had temporarily lost control of the jet. “I immediately engaged with him and said, ‘What was that?’ And he openly admitted, he said, ‘I lost control of the plane. My gauges just kind of went blank on me,’” Jokat said. “He said for that brief moment he couldn’t control anything and that’s when the plane did what it did. Then he said the gauges came back and it reengaged, the plane just reengaged to its normal flight pattern. And we had no issues before, no issues after. But just that moment.” The plane, operated by Chile’s flag carrier, was a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, according to flight tracking website FlightAware. LATAM on Monday said the plane “had a technical event during the flight which caused a strong movement,” adding it had landed as scheduled in Auckland. In a statement to CNN Tuesday, Boeing said it was “working to gather more information about the flight and will provide any support needed by our customer.” About 50 people were injured in the incident, with one person in serious condition, emergency services said. Jokat said he feared for his life when he saw fellow passengers fly out of their seats and hit the ceiling of the plane. “People were screaming and crying. And yeah, it was mass chaos for a few short seconds,” he said. “Clearly there was a moment in my head that I just kind of resigned to the fact this could be it. This might be it.” About 50 people were injured in the incident, according to emergency services in Auckland. - Dean Purcell/AP About 50 people were injured in the incident, according to emergency services in Auckland. - Dean Purcell/AP Boeing’s troubles As investigators scramble to discover what might have caused the sudden drop, the incident comes at a fraught time for Boeing. The US manufacturer has faced harsh criticism for a series of quality and safety issues in recent years, with many critics saying the company has shifted its focus in the last few decades to financial results at the cost of safety and quality in its aircraft. They include two fatal crashes of the 737 Max jet due to a design flaw in the plane, numerous halts in deliveries due to quality control issues and, most recently, a door plug that blew off of a new 737 Max operated by Alaska Airlines in January, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the plane. Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration in February flagged safety issues with engine anti-ice systems on the 737 Max and larger 787 Dreamliner. The safety regulator continues to allow both models of the plane to fly despite the potential problems. Both issues are moving through the FAA’s standard process for developing airworthiness directives — rather than an emergency process — signaling that the agency and plane maker do not believe the issues are serious enough to require the planes to stop flying immediately. The FAA said Monday it has given Boeing until late May to produce a plan to remedy issues identified in a federal audit and other reviews, including a safety culture survey of employees and a separate panel report that found workers concerned about retaliation for reporting safety concerns. FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said he expects the company to produce “a very detailed plan within the next 90 days to fix the quality issues that are out there.” Boeing has said it is working on several of the issues Whitaker identified. CNN’s Pete Muntean, Greg Wallace and Chris Isidore contributed reporting. For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com Up next Up next Up next Up next Up next
  16. knowing enough about commercial aviation to be dangerous..... .....for the sake of boeing and the 787, which has been "safe" since the battery problem was solved, i hope you're right .....if you are right sad for the pilot who is likely done in commercial flying that said, an autopilot over ride that achieves the 180kt speed increase in 1 second with only a 25' drop? oddly, bbc is silent, but the US mainstream has at least put up their first story as usual they are 18 hours behind while they wait for captured/sanctioned talking points
  17. search string: maximum recorded velocity of windshear in clear-air turbulence 1st result: 1976 smu scholarly article https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2133&context=jalc i see references to 110kt as the "threshhold" for "windshear" is it possible to encounter a column of air moving with a vector that achieves a 180kt increase in airspeed with only a 25-foot drop? now out of my skillset pilots & bernoulli engineers weigh in please
  18. as i wrote last night, they have the FDR and the CVR otherwise the detail in this article would not be known...... ++++++ https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/12/aircraft-systems-issue-possible-cause-of-latam-incident-commentator/ Aircraft systems issue possible cause of LATAM incident – commentator By 1News Reporters 12:59pm Experts are looking closely at the performance of the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner which accelerated in groundspeed sharply from 433 knots to 603 knots. An aviation expert has weighed in on what may have caused the LATAM Airlines incident, where up to 50 people were injured mid-flight after a sudden drop in altitude during a trip from Sydney to Auckland. At least 13 people were transported to Middlemore Hospital, and St John said among the 50 injured was one person in serious condition. Some remain in hospital today. Aviation expert Geoffrey Thomas of Airline Ratings has been covering aviation for 50 years. He told 1News the strange circumstances of the event point to a computer malfunction in the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner. "What we know is [during] the incident which caused all the problems, the speed of the aircraft went from 433 knots to 603 knots groundspeed. Passengers awaiting an onward flight to Santiago have told 1News they are nervous about getting on board a new flight following yesterday’s incident, which injured dozens. "At the same time, there was a 25 foot drop. Now, to the passengers, they would make it seem like thousands of feet, but it was actually 25 feet." Thomas said the 25 foot drop is not to underscore the seriousness of the incident, as a 25 foot drop would have been "terrifying" for the passengers on board. "[It is] still very violent." A 'computer malfunction'? Earlier on in the flight, Thomas said there was another "much lesser" speed aberration, which suggests something "was wrong" with the aircraft systems. "I think [investigators] will find there's an anomaly there... that there's been some false readings which have caused the aircraft engines to surge. It's very difficult to nail it down." Thomas added the incident being caused by wind shear is less likely as those events tend to last longer and have more oscillations. "This was just a very sharp up and down vertical speed change and then it recovered. So to me it seems to point to a computer malfunction." One passenger, Brian Jokat, told RNZ he asked the pilot what happened. "I asked him, I said 'what happened?' and he said my instrument panel went blank just you know for a second." the rest of the article is regurgitation:
  19. today (tuesday's) flight 800 from AKL to SCL is scheduled to depart in 10 minutes: https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/LAN800/history/20240312/0550Z/NZAA/SCEL
  20. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/LAN800/history/20240311/0045Z/YSSY/NZAA M084F390 DCT TESAT L521 EVONN/N0482F390 L521 GEROS/N0480F410 L521 LEGAN/M084F410 L521 LUNBI/N0472F410 L521 AA DCT
  21. welp, the metal landed 18? hours ago? so the FDR has already been accessed and the CVR track is known the longer it takes to be publicized, the worse it is
  22. this latam shit is potentially a big fucking deal guys driving 787s are not entry level dudes clear air turbulence happens, but this level of severity? bodies breaking and denting the celing, fixtures and luggage bin doors? i haven't posted all the links and pics - someone else can get to it this level of injuries -- FIFTY -- that's almost unprecedented in my recollection latam is claiming "technical malfunction" a glass cockpit going dark and a plane suddenly plunging at 500 knots .... this is some deeply scary shit, potentially scarier that the macgyvers required to fix the 73max
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