Okay, back home and can try to gather thoughts on my conversation over dinner:
Zelenskyy was over his head when he first received Western intelligence on Russia's invasion plans. I can understand how improbable it seemed to him at the time, but the perspective is he had warning and overlooked the threat for almost a year leading up to the Feb 24 strike.
Poroshenko knew military conflict was inevitible and tried to coach on Russia's buildup as Zelenskyy took office
Yanukovich really set them back as a prospering nation attempting to disassociate from Russia
The average Ukrainian trusts nothing communicated from Russian sources-- it's usually false there's always an agenda behind a message
The average Ukrainian knows about the human atrocities taking place in the East, regardless of where they reside
The average Ukrainian also gives no fucks about changing their way of life with conflict raging around them-- there's a sort of bravado about standing their ground, and there's a quote from an old woman on national news who once stated, "we lost our roof, our running water, our gas, our electricity, but we have freedom"
The average Ukranian knows Russia is getting their shit pushed in on their territory and that they are running out of missles
Russia will run out of money before running out of men, and that spells the real trouble within. Once the money dries up for military supply, for conscripts and for subsidies in the poorer oblasts, watch the discontept boil over
So much of Russia's somewhat-modern military capability was borne of Ukrainian engineering and supply, including some of the Sarmat programs.
My friend is involved with a Ukrainian Mil-Hacker group on Telegram. This is a pretty tight knit group of around 200 volunteers, most with advanced software and IT infrastructure backgrounds. Each day, the Telegram channel declares a 'challenge' on something related to the war, targeting Russia. Many are coordinated DDoS attacks on Russia telecom networks, some are hyperlocal and target their military comms. They're among the group responsible for halting Russian banks, breaking their postal and delivery services, and bringing down cellular networks
Russian expats in Europe are grating. Most are still drinking the propaganda kool-aid and can be awful to deal with
Germany does have a Russian problem- Ukrainians are disgusted with Scholz and understand enough Russians fled to Germany that they don't have a handle on everyone with a visa
Poland is Ukraine's 'brother in arms,' and that anti-air coverage in Lviv is largely augmented by Polish missle systems
He believes internal political parity exists to counter Putin but none united and loud enough to overcome their state propaganda. Ukrainians don't give any credit to Navalny, after his statements on Crimea (that Ukraine had little position over it any longer). In Ukraine, Sergei Furgal's efforts are more admirable for his membership in the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and leading anti-establishment opposition in the far east. Unfortunately, his influence isn't going to be noticed in the west aside from means to send him to trial in Moscow and lock him up, in which he's serving 22 years for a sham trial on a double-murder accusation.
Igor Girkin gets a free pass to talk shit about the MoD as he still carries FSB credibility
China is already bending Russia over in Siberia-- since 2019, there's a Chinese shadow logging industry operating mills in the region and and transporting lumber down the Trans-Siberian, but few are seeing any economic benefit from their rapid deforestation