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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. I don't necessarily disagree, I just don't see a lot more to be gotten out of Broughton given his physical profile. Sweat wasn't thought of as an Outland type at this time last year, but everyone knew he had the tools to be really good if he locked in and was excited about him coming back.
  2. Not necessarily true. Vast majority of people that relocate across state lines (or choose not to, for that matter) are driven by household economics (cost of living, job/educational, opportunity, whatever) or family dynamics. Politics is typically a secondary/tertiary concern if it registers at all. "Voting with your feet" is, for the most part, a privilege of the class of people who are probably going to be fine wherever they go. Between that and the age issue the base case on this should be that most young people moving here probably fall somewhere between "well, the politics kinda suck but I can get a room in a 2BD apartment < $1,000 and still live in a major city with jobs and shit to do" and complete political disengagement.
  3. They may be right, but I remember similar concerns about T'vondre Sweat and to a lesser degree, Byron Murphy as well. There's not a T'Vondre Sweat on the roster. That's what it really boils down to. The duo of Sweat and Murphy isn't going to be replaced because that was generational excellence but when you throw that comparison out the window it looks less dire. Collins has quietly been pretty good the past couple years. I imagine he will play well with starter's snaps this year. Sounds like Bledsoe is coming along. Broughton is a serviceable rotation piece - nothing more, but nothing less either. I'm not super worried about the 3-tech spot unless it's a rash of injuries. I imagine Savea gets first crack at nose and he should be serviceable against most of the schedule. Will be a problem against Michigan and Georgia. Big spring/off season for Sydir Mitchell; if Texas is to reach its full potential this year he's going to have to give 15 good snaps a game. This position will be priority one in the summer portal window. It's the biggest flaw on the team both in terms of quality and numbers. Aaron Bryant is out there too. I honestly can't remember if they've worked him more at nose or 3 tech but he's another 300-pound body.
  4. George Santos accusing literally anyone else in the world of lying and swindling their voter base is something. Imagine being dumb enough to buy this.
  5. Fingers crossed. I've mostly lurked on this thread but I know you've been through it. I know it's frustrating but if you can end up with more or less a lateral move after this entire saga, it is a win.
  6. They are both going to be fantastic pros. Marvin Harrison JR, okay, but after that I don't see a huge delta between them and guys like Odunze or the LSU pair that are getting mocked well above them. Someone is going to get a fucking steal with Worthy in the second round if these mocks are right.
  7. Trump got like 75MM votes in 2020 and probably isn't going to shed a ton of support.
  8. Okay but trivia pulls mad hoes tho. Speaking of trivia, Texas State of all places has one of the top applied geography programs in the country. One of my best UT geography professors once told us, regarding graduate school "if you want to toil in academia, UT is good. If you want a job, go to Texas State." Depending on what track you take there are some legit career opportunities out of a geography program. I know folks in environmental/natural resource management, energy, GIS, urban planning/landscape architecture, and commercial real estate. You can of course go teach K-12 social studies too. My early career path looked like Case McCoy at Kyle Field, but I ended up in commercial real estate and ended up on a solid track. Was coming out of a contract GIS gig when I was hired as an entry level analyst and that technical element was a differentiator. Now that I've moved up I rarely use GIS or my geography major in an explicit sense, but I'll say spatial intelligence in general seems pretty rare and the amount of people who struggle to think spatially in an industry where the number one rule is "location, location, location" consistently surprises me. All that said there's definitely a fluffy liberal arts degree element to it though. That's absolutely a track to take too. +1 geography to CRE. We're a minority but anecdotally I'd guess geography or urban planning is the most common non-finance degree in the field. Seems like lots of GIS folks want to stay in that box, and that's how you max out at like $75kyear. But when you branch out into development, database management, etc. you can make some real money on that side of things. And of course there are opportunities in real estate.
  9. It makes sense because of the former point. Biden has such a ridiculous cash advantage that deploying resources in FL/TX/NC (I was big on Democrats in NC in 2020 and I want to be again with migration trends but the polls look terrible for Biden) and making Trump play defense has as much or more utility as swamping the six Biden swing states *that* much more. Diminishing returns and all that. Not to mention he has so much cash that it's not really a trade off. Expanding the map is probably the best way to get to 270 EVs. You make Trump play defense and improve your chances in the swing states you won last time. And if you happen to win TX or FL, election is over. Yeah I'm pretty optimistic on WI. Democratic base has been consistently engaged there over the past four years and now they have an opportunity to reset the landscape in the state legislature. I cannot fathom an enthusiasm gap with the base there, and we know how the suburbs feel about Trump.
  10. Can't actually book through Google Flights, it just shows pricing across all the different platforms.
  11. Prior to Israel I'd have considered him the best POTUS of my lifetime (starting, technically, with Bush 1 but I really don't remember much before Bush 2 second term) without serious competition. That may still be the case but I'd have to think about that now.
  12. Yeah this won't be aimed at business travelers using corporate platforms. It's aimed at individual consumers using third party sites, and at the Chase and Amex travels of the world offering big incentives to book through their portals. I know Expedia handles those on the back end so it will be interesting to see if they qualify.
  13. In general I've found the floor for food quality is higher in Mexico. Obviously there is a lot of fast food in both countries, but beyond that the low end in the USA is so goddamn saturated with chains and over-processed food.
  14. Always wild to me that there are many posters on this board who graduated from UT and do not immediately gut check when they find themselves aligned with texags and Barry Switzer.
  15. Even more ironic, every single person he named with the exception of Abraham Lincoln are in hell for, you know, owning other human beings as slaves.
  16. 1.) Did the RNC seriously just misidentify the most senior Republican in the US Government? 2.) He looks fine and do we all not remember the videos of Trump's fat ass attempting to navigate an incline?
  17. I'd say don't sleep on Santa Maria style BBQ. A good tri tip sandwich, cole slaw, and some cold beer absolutely fucks. CA isn't the BBQ desert that much of the west is. But yeah, Texas BBQ is the undisputed king.
  18. You'd be right, but that's because plenty of people feel their state's leadership is horrible everywhere, Texas included. A quick google search indicates CA governor Newsom has historically had a higher approval rating than Abbott - the most popular of Texas's leadership - until very recently, which seems to coincide with Newsom putting more focus on being a surrogate for the Biden campaign and seemingly positioning himself for a future presidential run. AKA a major reason a lot of Texans dislike Ted Cruz. TX legislature lives in the < 50% approval range and was well into the negatives at the end of the 2023 session. Same story in CA. Two sides of the same coin. I'd imagine you'd probably find similar cases in most states. Congress thinks it's a good day when approval goes north of 20%. People don't like politicians, news at 11.
  19. I'm in multifamily, which is a why I mostly lurk in this thread and then pop off in general housing market discussion or when talk veers to commercial. That's the other reason I'd be inclined to find a good buyers agent - I understand the language, but I also understand that there's things I'm not going to know deep in the weeds of a single family deal. I've been advising my mom through selling her home recently and she's been really frustrated with, well, everything that makes this true. All I could muster is "Yeah... in my experience the best and brightest don't dream of working in title."
  20. You type like texags. People, we are dealing with a very intelligent individual here. If Trump wins the election - and make no mistake, despite the optimism on this board he is a slight but distinct favorite at this juncture - he will do so while his record moves to 0-3 in the popular vote. He will end up 10MM-12MM votes in the red over three elections (even more if he loses), not to mention costing the GOP countless downballot races. In no world did the prior or potential future election of the election of Donald Trump symbolize some groundswell of popular support for him or MAGA's platform of victimhood and cultural grievance; or likewise, a popular rebuke of the Democratic policy platform, progressivism, or whatever else you like to yell at clouds about. To even suggest that it does is phenomenally stupid and in no way grounded in reality. Trump ran behind Mitt Romney's 2012 performance both times he has been on the ballot and will again in 2024. The only thing his election represents is a subtle realignment of political coalitions that created a significant advantage in the Electoral College; a quirk in our system, which is designed to empower the minority and make political change hard. lol If it thinks like aggy, sounds like aggy...
  21. Yeah, you have to remember the audience in this thread is people going out of the way to talk about real estate on a college football message board. A lot of us work in the industry. This thread is a very cherry picked sample. I'm not saying RE agents are categorically great and everyone should use one but even a half decent agent offers some value to the median market participant. They're not going away. I'm an underwriter; very comfortable reading market data, purchase agreements, loan docs, etc. and still plan to use a buyer's agent for our first home just to make sure there is another set of eyes. Maybe this thins the herd a bit because the useless ones can't coast to 3% with all buyers, but that's about it.
  22. Your friends take is interesting. Haven't heard someone say "We're generating too much electricity in Texas!"
  23. That's because of the demographic of those leaving; it's been predominantly low/middle income earners for a long time. And also, in the grand scheme of things the number of people leaving the state is a drop in the bucket compared to the size of the population. There's still very much a housing shortage out there. Supply and demand in housing is as much about dollars to go around as it is headcount, and the volume of money in the market has arguably increased. Pre-COVID, CA was a net negative domestic migration state but not by anything approaching the margins of recent years because there was net positive inflow of highly educated/earning subgroup. The population still grew (pretty substantially - only FL and TX added more people between 2010-2020) because international migrations and natural increase was > net out migration. With COVID ushering in remote work more of those households understandably left because they didn't need to physically be in CA anymore and paying CA income taxes. I expect CA's population will more or less stabilize around its current level as the labor market seems to have reached a new equilibrium with hybrid/remote work, and there's employment upside with the tech sector that will probably draw some people out there in its next growth cycle. It's probably still the biggest state in the 2030 Census but Texas seems likely to pass it at some point in the 2030's.
  24. This is pretty simplistic. People walk around feeling fine and then find out they have Stage III or IV cancer. Things aren't always as they seem on the surface. The vast majority of people that make interstate moves do so either because of household economics (job opportunity, housing costs, whatever) or proximity to family. It's not typically some dream of living in Texas - although, like others have mentioned, I do know a few transplants really into the cowboy cosplay bit so it is out there. The segment of the population that actually, consciously votes with their feet is very small because that generally requires a level of financial stability that most of the population doesn't have, and most people aren't willing to up and leave their family/friends, find a new job or close their business, or whatever the case may be to make a political point. The growth machine - which at this point is self sustaining and plays a nontrivial role in the continued economic expansion of the state - will end for Texas at some point, just like it has elsewhere. At that point Texas is going to be left with a lot of very inefficient, expensive to maintain sprawl without the growth to pay for it. At some point, somewhere else is going to be the more cost effective and appealing option for businesses and citizens, and you'll see relocations out of Texas to hotspot X just like people once moved in droves from the east coast to the Rust Belt, and from EST and CST to California. It will be interesting to see where the state goes from there. It has advantages California, the northeast (near endless supply of flat, buildable land across which to continuously sprawl), and the Rust Belt (international migration, diversified economy) didn't have when the growth cycle ended in those places. But it'll also face some unique challenges with climate change/water security (this is an issue for CA too), transition away from oil (no CR, it'll happen at some point even if it is literally pumping it all out of the ground), etc.
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