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boilerhorn

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by boilerhorn

  1. Holy shit - that was a textbook case of targeting. I guess my textbook had a misprint.
  2. Usiung Sagarin rating as a basis, Purdue-ISU would be a pick-em. Purdue has some decent wins (Illinois and Minnesota) and some bad losses (Syracuse, Iowa). Every other Big12 team - except Kansas and WVU - would be favored over Purdue. TODAY, 4 of the other 6 Big10 West teams would be favored against Purdue. Go Boilers!
  3. 5th in completion %-age (Nix, DTR, Rising, Penix) 2nd in total yards (Penix) 1st in yards per attempt 1st in TD, fewest INT top passer rating. Who is better? Who would you rather have?
  4. Breech or breach? I think either works when Holgo is involved.
  5. Those numbers do include the signing bonuses. There was a major rework of the rookie salary scale a few years back. Numbers are much lower now, but 100% guaranteed. 2022 Top-5 picks got 4 years for $31-$37 - including all bonuses. For reference the top RB in 2021 (Harris) received 4-$12mm. Yes - there is risk if he stays and the numbers are 100% guaranteed. Unless he projects to the 2nd round (he should not), Bijan should go to the NFL.
  6. Not sure what it would cost, but that seems to be at the top end. RBs have much lower value in the modern NFL than in the past. Zero RBs were taken in the first round in 2022, but the top RB was Breece Hall. Bijan is *much* better than Hall. In the past few years, the following RBs were taken in the first round: 2022 - none 2021 - Naje Harris (24), Travis Etienne (25) 2020 - Edwards-Hellaire (32) 2019 - Jacobs (24) Let's assume that Bijan is picked #10 (which is optimistic based on recent draft history). He gets a 4-yr contract in the $22-24 million range. IMO, $6mm should easily keep him...
  7. To pile on the OL comments. It seems crystal clear that Sarkisian/Flood wanted to build and develop the OL their way: try to make chicken salad out of what they had and grow through recruiting. Looking at the 2-deep, Texas has 2 FR, 2 SO, and a RS Senior as starters. The 2nd team has 4 FR and a RS So. The FR will make mistakes. Where it has experience, this OL is bereft of ability. Baylor's OL looked pretty good yesterday against TCU. By comparison, Baylor has RS So, JR, SR, and 2 grad transfers as starters. The 2nd team has 2 FR, RS Sr, Jr, and a grad transfer. Those grad transfers are 5th year seniors. I think this OL will be dangerous in 1-2 years. The unwillingness to bring in OL mercenaries though the portal may have cost us a couple of games over the past couple of years, but I think the build strategy (vs. "buy") is sound.
  8. Predicting 8-4 before the season and being satisfied with 8-4 after the season is silly. Before the season, the only real context we had was that OU, OSU, Baylor, ISU, and KSU were decent in 2021 - and would likely be decent in 2022. Losses to Bama, two of those five and "one we shouldn't" would have Texas at 8-4. Reasonable pre-season prediction with zero in-season context. Having seen this Texas team and the pile of steaming mediocrity that is the Big12, there is no reason this team should have 3 conference losses, especially not to TTU and OSU. However, coaching tactics contributed to those losses and I guess we should be somewhat thankful that the coaches did not choke away a couple more. That said, this team would steamroll what Texas put on the field against LaLa last year. There is marked improvement.
  9. These are two mediocre, flawed, beatable teams. Texas has lost to one and I fear will somehow find a way to lose to the other.
  10. Without context, it was a reasonable call. With context, it was the wrong call. Texas had just completed its first successful drive of the evening, a 77 yard drive resulting in a FG. The defense had just stopped TCU for another 3-and-out. Texas got away with near misses the 2 previous times AND should have noted that the kicker was a flopper. Field the punt and take back control of the game.
  11. Prior to this year, I would say that Dykes has been "OK" after Cal. He continued Chad Morris's upward trend at SMU, so he deserves some credit. But there are very few signature wins. 2018: vs. Major Applewhite's #17 Houston; 2019 at #25 TCU; 2021 at unranked TCU. This is his first year as a coach to ever win more than 1 game against a ranked opponent. This year it is 5: OU, Kansas, OSU, KSU, Texas. And it is entirely possible only 1 is ranked at the end of the year.
  12. Sonny Dykes is a decent enough coach, but his results at Cal were only really so-so - not unlike Sark's at Washington. 1 win, 5 wins, 8 wins, 5 wins. He did lead the Cal team to a win over Texas 45-44 in 2015 and 50-34 in 2016. He was 1-11 against the other California PAC12 teams. While at Cal he had Tony Franklin as OC and (after Franklin quit to spend more time with his family) he brought on Jake Spavital. He was fired. Texas fans would have gone ballistic if Dykes was brought on. Moreover, he'd have brought along his merry group of G5 assistants - resulting in further vitriol. Dykes is a fine enough coach, but TCU is winning in a mediocre Big12. TCU will get steamrolled if they go to the playoffs. Texas just wrote the defensive script on how to stop them. Texas was 1 defensive mistake and refs ignoring Jared Wiley's holding from keeping them to 3 points.
  13. Should have been a DPI. Hyphenated DB clearly grabbed Sanders at the neck of the jersey. Not that anything would have come of it.
  14. Wiley got away with holding 2 plays in a row. College officiating is either incompetent or corrupt. Either way, it makes for a shitty product. Esp. if you care about any of the teams.
  15. We've put up 1.22 Watsons of offense in the first half. I am optimistic for the 2nd half.
  16. As shitty as Charlie was, his teams never lost to OU by more than 5. Sure, they had double-digit deficits in the 4th quarter of both of those losses, but the team never gave up. There were plenty of bed-shitters when he was a coach, but it was not against OU.
  17. With Rutgers, the B1G can make a claim to the NYC market. I suspect the carriage rates are properly adjusted (derated) for the fact that it's, well, Rutgers. Rutgers has the 8th largest number of living alumni (per the report I link below). Rutgers is an AAU member. There may be considerable value to a large alumni base from a reputable R1 university. I am certain the B1G considered all of that before offering Rutgers. I say that and Cal meets the same criteria https://www.universitymagazine.ca/10-biggest-college-alumni-networks-u-s/ The B1G has 7 of the 10 colleges with the largest alumni base. The others: Texas (9), Cal (7), UCLA (5).
  18. Carolina's not even good at tanking.
  19. If this is you emotional hedge, bet the moneyline. It's presently at +225. If TCU wins, you get $1125 (plus your original "deposit"). If Texas wins, you'll be happy.
  20. (10+5) -1 = 14. 14/2 = 7, our margin of victory. Advanced analytics! What do I win? Texas has done less with more for some time, so that stat is unsurprising.
  21. Fans rushing the field after a game should incur an automatic $10mm fine. Once the home team can demonstrate that no visiting player, coach, or staffer was physically or verbally assaulted, the fine is dropped. Texas players were shoved at Tech. The above fool could not just enjoy the win. The fines are presently at the "sure, I'll pay that" or "worth it" levels. Make it painful and the home hosts will make sure there is proper postgame security.
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