It's not just the US. Best case for Apple from the DOJ case, status quo. Compromise case, they have to open up their walled garden: messaging, 3rd party access to NFC, gimping other apps at the benefit of Apple apps and services, etc. Worst case, they get broken up. Other countries are and will continue to do their own cases. Apple is going to spend the next few years battling in many different countries courts. If they are pissing off this many countries regulators, clearly they are doing something anticompetitive.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/technology/apple-doj-lawsuit-antitrust.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
The lawsuits reflect a push by the regulators to apply greater scrutiny to the companies’ roles as gatekeepers to commerce and communications. In 2019, under President Donald J. Trump, the agencies opened antitrust inquiries into Google, Meta, Amazon and Apple. The Biden administration has put even more energy behind the effort, appointing critics of the tech giants to lead both the F.T.C. and the antitrust division of the Department of Justice.
In Europe, regulators recently punished Apple for preventing music streaming competitors from communicating with users about promotions and options to upgrade their subscriptions, levying a 1.8 billion-euro fine. App makers have also appealed to the European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, to investigate claims that Apple is violating a new law requiring it to open iPhones to third-party app stores.
In South Korea and the Netherlands, the company is facing potential fines over the fees it charges app developers to use alternative payment processors. Other countries, including Britain, Australia and Japan, are considering rules that would undercut Apple’s grip on the app economy.