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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
in Business and Markets

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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Esque

Esque 135

Posted
Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Can someone explain to me like I'm pre-K why rising home prices would drive rates higher?  I can see how rates could affect pricing, but the reverse seems odd to me.

  • Higher home prices = higher monthly mortgage payment, property insurance, and property tax or total monthly housing payment.
  • Higher total monthly housing payment = higher Owner's Equivalent Rent ("OER").
  • OER is the measure of how much an owner would pay in rent to equal their total monthly housing costs.
  • OER is a main input and driver into CPI.
  • Therefore by definition higher home prices result in higher CPI in a stabilized borrowing costs environment.

There's also secondary knock on effects that tend to be inflationary.  For example, the higher the total monthly housing payment, the more rent can be pushed at for-rent properties because the relative attractiveness to ownership increases.  Likewise, this all tends to bleed into the labor market as higher monthly housing costs (either ownership or rent) means higher demand for wages.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can someone explain to me like I'm pre-K why rising home prices would drive rates higher?  I can see how rates could affect pricing, but the reverse seems odd to me.

The rates went up today because hourly wages went from 0.9% to 1.2% (expectation was 1.0%). That’s driving inflation which is driving rates higher today.  
interestingly enough tax receipts are lower, consumer expectations are at a 2 year low right now and one real life number has jobs down 100k over the same time period BLS has them up 500k. So- there’s some disconnect between what is actually happening and being observed vs what’s being reported which relies heavily on modeling. 
inflation is actually the opposite right now- the government number is coming in significantly higher than what’s being seen by the dudes looking at 10M factors v 780k factors. Thats to say that maybe the government is simply getting it wrong and not intentionally. 
none of this is original thoughts be me, passing along what the market tea leaf reader I pay says. Is he right? Dunno. It sounds plausible. 
rates will improve Wednesday if fed slows down balance sheet reduction and starts buying treasuries and MBS. The thought is that will definitely happen, but when?  Habib seems to think that could be at tomorrows Fed meeting announcement. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2570

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Esque said:
  • Higher home prices = higher monthly mortgage payment, property insurance, and property tax or total monthly housing payment.
  • Higher total monthly housing payment = higher Owner's Equivalent Rent ("OER").
  • OER is the measure of how much an owner would pay in rent to equal their total monthly housing costs.
  • OER is a main input and driver into CPI.
  • Therefore by definition higher home prices result in higher CPI in a stabilized borrowing costs environment.

There's also secondary knock on effects that tend to be inflationary.  For example, the higher the total monthly housing payment, the more rent can be pushed at for-rent properties because the relative attractiveness to ownership increases.  Likewise, this all tends to bleed into the labor market as higher monthly housing costs (either ownership or rent) means higher demand for wages.

Hey dude, kudos for all that.  I could have described it but never so concisely.  It almost makes up for you being a Rangers fan. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25843

Posted
Posted

The rates went up today because hourly wages went from 0.9% to 1.2% (expectation was 1.0%). That’s driving inflation which is driving rates higher today.  

 

 

Corporate greed is driving inflation.  Publix profits are up 50%.  They didn't get more efficient.  They raised their fucking prices. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Publix profits are up 50%.  They didn't get more efficient.  They raised their fucking prices. 

Yeah…but their bakery is legit. I’m just saying 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25843

Posted
Posted (edited)

Kate from the B-52s is selling a VERY cool property.  I'd buy it myself but I've already got a desert place...but this one is better. 

https://www.ocregister.com/2024/05/01/b-52s-kate-pierson-lists-her-airstream-retreat-in-mojave-desert-for-452k/

 

Kate Pierson of The B-52s has listed her kitschy Airstream “glampground” in the Mojave Desert for $452,000.

Sited in unincorporated Landers with mountain views, Kate’s Lazy Desert comprises two parcels for a total of 10 acres. It comes with six fully hooked up and equipped vintage trailers, including one filled with B-52s memorabilia, a 400-square-foot “homestead cabin” dating to 1955 and a 225-square-foot storage shed.

Records show Pierson and her wife,  the artist and designer Monica Coleman, paid $18,000 for the initial 5-acre property in November 2011. A year later, Kate’s Lazy Desert opened for business with nightly rates from $200-plus, Yelp.com reviews show. In June 2017, the couple expanded the grounds through the purchase of a neighboring 5-acre vacant lot for $20,000.

Since it hit the market in early April, the listing agent Niko Esposito of Paul Kaplan Group/Bennion Deville Homes has heard from “starry-eyed super creatives,” adventure groups and investors hoping to take advantage of the conditional use permit included in the asking price.

The CUP allows the next owner to operate the property as a motel, trailer park or campground.

Given the area’s history as a gathering place for spiritualists and UFO enthusiasts, it’s also ideal for “cosmic vibing” and “extraterrestrial communicating,” the listing reads.

The property is near Joshua Tree National Park, The Integratron and Giant Rock Boulder, a seven-story monolith. There are also popular restaurants in the area, including Pappy and Harriet’s and La Copine.

Pierson, 76, is a founding member and vocalist of The B-52s. Formed in Athens, Georgia, in 1976, the band — including Fred Schneider, Keith Strickland and Cindy Wilson — has produced hits such as “Rock Lobster,” “Love Shack,” “Roam” and many others over the years and continues to perform.

n addition to The B-52s, Pierson has appeared as a guest vocalist on Iggy Pop’s “Candy” and R.E.M.’s “Shiny Happy People.” She released her debut solo album, “Guitars and Microphones,” in 2015.

Pierson also ventured into vacation rentals. Before Kate’s Lazy Desert, she launched Kate’s Lazy Meadow, a Catskills motel, in 2003. After selling that property in August 2021 for $2.3 million, Pierson and Coleman opened Kate’s Lazy Cape, a beach house in Truro, Massachusetts. The property is advertised on Airbnb at $850 nightly.

For those not familiar, Pappy and Harriet's is a very cool place that's had major acts.  Paul played there before Coachella a few years back. 

Edited by Gil Bang
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted

And it's back

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Fucking Ishbia. Reprice for the better asshole. We are up 27 bips and the entire rest of the market already has. 

We got one 30 minutes ago 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

And it's back

We got one 30 minutes ago 

Yep. He was the last one to do it. Got 3 people I’m pounding on the desk to lock right now. Maybe 4. I want zero may exposure to this jobs report. If you get burned and lose 1/4 of a point tomorrow because you didn’t listen you are an asshole and get what you had coming. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2570

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Fucking Habib. "Lock before tomorrow's job's report"

 

Haha, I had someone apply at 5 pm yesterday and I was desperately tempted to try to rush in a lock in but held off (I figured we gained 30 bps yesterday, surely we wouldn't lose it today).

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3785

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

He was right on Fed speech, so I bought into lock advice. 

I mean last night vs this AM isn’t a monster drop but still noticeable so better safe than sorry isn’t necessarily the wrong move in this market 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I mean last night vs this AM isn’t a monster drop but still noticeable so better safe than sorry isn’t necessarily the wrong move in this market 

All gains today are now gone. lol

Edit: they're back

Way too volatile

Edited by Neonmoon
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted

I locked 5 people yesterday. Told them to take the win for earlier in the week and lock because jobs report has not been our friend for about 18 months. So, of course the jobs report was a big miss. 
because, of course. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Apparently getting IRS installment agreement plans are the hardest thing to obtain in history 

thank you government 

Or W 2 transcripts. Or zero paid balance or some such. I don’t know what any of those things are but they’ve both been brought up by my ops manager lately as a reason why UW doesn’t have us clear to close. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25843

Posted
Posted

closed an escrow today.   "Meh" deal, but a check is a check, and this one comes at a good time. 

 

Also, I'm a bit proud.  Our brokerage has a strict policy that all checks are sent to the office, and agents can't pick them up directly from escrow. That's on our commission instructions. 

The escrow is local, so I emailed the office manager telling them my file is complete, and I want to pick up my check from the escrow that's 5 minutes from my house. 

She emailed back that she talked to the broker, and he said my paperwork is so tight I don't have to ask.  They will remove that line from commission instructions on my future deals.   Which has me wondering...how fucking sloppy are the other agents in the office?  I know I have to stay on top of the agents on the other side...I'm always pushing to get shit done on time per the contract.    Looks like there are lazy fucks everywhere.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25843

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

There is a reason “transaction coordinator” is a job. 

I've used one exactly two times.

I need to know what's going on at all times.  Control freak/whatever.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I’ve had multiple clients spend 3 hours on the phone to IRS and get nowhere. The only way to get a copy is to request it on the phone. Takes 2 weeks in mail. Fuck my life. 

Can you not go into the local office and get in person? 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3785

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Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Can you not go into the local office and get in person? 

This is what I presume his fix is. 99/100 that’s what handles it, it’s just the not fun way of fixing it 

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Etexhorn13

Etexhorn13 3019

Posted
Posted

How difficult would it be to remove the escrow payments from my mortgage and instead put that money in say a Merrill Lynch account that I use to pay off my taxes once a year so I can at least get some interest that money. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2570

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Etexhorn13 said:

How difficult would it be to remove the escrow payments from my mortgage and instead put that money in say a Merrill Lynch account that I use to pay off my taxes once a year so I can at least get some interest that money. 

Back when we had a servicing portfolio we’d allow it upon request on a conventional loan as long as you had 20% equity based on sales price or appraised value at the time of loan creation (I.e., you couldn’t use appreciation to get to 20% equity).  

Also, your escrow account is paying you interest, even if it’s not a lot of it.  

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

ResMac?  Been a while since we've done one.

I never have. I sent him to a broker down the street. I don’t need to re-invent the wheel for a 125K loan. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

Posted
Posted

Just got fired twice in the last 2 business days. 
one a guy I’d worked with on a new build (so I was expecting fuckery) for about 9 months- got the credit up- for him qualified when they couldn’t blah blah blah, and he left over $10 a month. 
the other guy that just fired me was turned down a couple different places until I got him approved (had a lender make 2 exceptions about some difficult stuff while we were shopping and that got his debt ratio down to 49.8) because he got offered 1/4 of a point better. Now- his wife was on the job self employed 18 months and they are a super slam dunk easy loan once they file taxes in 25 and I told him I’d pay all his fees and refinance him for free at my cheapest lender at that time. 
$924.00 on his timeline is what it will cost him. 
I never get fired. I was on my way to the biggest month I’d had since early 2022 so it’s not that big a deal (the other 10 people I’ve got locked for May haven’t fired me yet!) I’m sitting here with a bemused smile on my face. 
Question for the board (if this guy who’s been turned down multiple times comes back should I close him?  

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