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Surly 2024 March Madness Bracket Contest


BigOrange1

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Posted (edited)

I’ve been out of the running since last Friday basically, but according to the TC app “forecast”, it gives Dendox by far the best chance the win the group at 34%. But maybe that’s not a paid entry.

Top chance for a listed-as-paid entry is Durdy at 3.7%. But I’m assuming there are some that didn’t update their bracket name with the $30.

Edited by LonghornSean
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So I now have a 0% chance of winning - but that's because if every game goes right for me then Doomlet wins. Now I have to root for UConn to make the FF and then lose to ALA/Clem... crazier shit has happened I guess. 

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I've has a severe setback with NC State FATWA against my bracket, and UH bitch-itude, but I've still got a 3% chance of winning.

I feel like my ship is about to come in. Seriously, this is going to turn things around. 

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10 hours ago, Welshy said:

I've has a severe setback with NC State FATWA against my bracket, and UH bitch-itude, but I've still got a 3% chance of winning.

I feel like my ship is about to come in. Seriously, this is going to turn things around. 

Our picks are the same going forward , but I trail you by 10 pts.  If it breaks our way, you’ll finish first and I’ll finish second.  

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Tight:

 

Group Forecast

 
3RANK
760PTS
1400MAX
40.2%TO WIN
 
 
Hide My Path To Win
Best Path to Win

These outcomes are key for my bracket to win the group.

 

PUR to reach the National Championship

Group Standings Projection

The overall likelihood of my finishing position within the group.

 
 
 
 
40.2%

TO WIN

 
47.9%

TOP 3

 
49.9%

TOP 5

 
12RANK
730PTS
1370MAX
29.7%TO WIN
 
 
Hide Best Path To Win
Best Path to Win

These outcomes are key for this bracket to win the group.

 

PUR to win it all

 

CONN to reach the National Championship

Group Standings Projection

The overall likelihood of this bracket's finishing position within the group.

 
 
 
 
29.7%

TO WIN

 
29.7%

TOP 3

 
50.1%

TOP 5

 
5RANK
750PTS
1230MAX
20.4%TO WIN
 
 
Hide Best Path To Win
Best Path to Win

These outcomes are key for this bracket to win the group.

 

PUR to win it all

 

ALA to reach the National Championship

Group Standings Projection

The overall likelihood of this bracket's finishing position within the group.

 
 
 
 
20.4%

TO WIN

 
31.2%

TOP 3

 
61.7%

TOP 5

 
2RANK
770PTS
1250MAX
5.7%TO WIN
 
 
Hide Best Path To Win
Best Path to Win

These outcomes are key for this bracket to win the group.

 

CONN to win it all

 

NCSU to reach the National Championship

Group Standings Projection

The overall likelihood of this bracket's finishing position within the group.

 
 
 
 
5.7%

TO WIN

 
9.7%

TOP 3

 
9.7%

TOP 5

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2 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Hey @BigOrange1, do we know what the payouts are going to be? I'm gonna go ahead and start spending my winnings now since we know Purdue will beat UConn in the final. 

whoops - thought i posted this the other day but i guess i didn't.

i show 57 paid entries.  payouts to the top 3 finishers should be:

1st - $855

2nd - $513

3rd - $342

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5 minutes ago, Welshy said:

If Purdue wins, HotB wins, TexArch is 2, you're three, but only if Uconn loses in final 4. If UConn wins and Purdue wins, You're out of the mix. 

Ok that's how I had it figured as well. Roll Tide then! 

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15 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

whoops - thought i posted this the other day but i guess i didn't.

i show 57 paid entries.  payouts to the top 3 finishers should be:

1st - $855

2nd - $513

3rd - $342

Is there any payout for dead last? Like getting their money back? Somehow, with my second bracket, I did the exact opposite of winning. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Is there any payout for dead last? Like getting their money back? Somehow, with my second bracket, I did the exact opposite of winning. 

that's not a bad idea since people can't update their picks once the contest begins.  i think we should implement a refund for the last place finisher next year.

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1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

that's not a bad idea since people can't update their picks once the contest begins.  i think we should implement a refund for the last place finisher next year.


I like it. This year's 2025 loser of "The closetojumping Honorary Last Place Finish Award" is again ... closetojumping.

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On 4/6/2024 at 10:15 PM, Welshy said:

image.thumb.png.c4b58b9e83313f147e6cd67fa8cfeba2.png

So Uconn wins:

1. Welshy's Pics 1

2. Harrison Stafford

3. King Koopa

 

If Purdue wins:

1. HornontheBayou

2. Welshy's Pics 2

3. Carl Spackler

 

 

lol @ my dad. he’s in the top 5, he nailed the title game participants, and even if he picks the winner he’s already eliminated from cashing out. that’s march madness.

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just want to give all of the soon to be winners a heads up that i have started the process of transfering all of the entry fees over from the various places they were sent.  i will be in new orleans for work today - thursday (heading to the airport in a matter of minutes) so i am planning on sending payouts on friday of this week.

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3 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

just want to give all of the soon to be winners a heads up that i have started the process of transfering all of the entry fees over from the various places they were sent.  i will be in new orleans for work today - thursday (heading to the airport in a matter of minutes) so i am planning on sending payouts on friday of this week.

In all seriousness, much appreciated. No rush on my end. 

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