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Posted
37 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I think the disconnect within Dem electorate is between (at least) two factions. One believes in the "just win, baby" mantra when it comes to upcoming elections, that regaining "power" in 2026 or 2028 is enough. The other believes there needs to be a complete repudiation of Trump/MAGA in order for the country to survive. 

Of course it’s not enough. But you can’t have one without the other. 

34 minutes ago, softlynow said:

But the douchiness of posting the above while having 15913 posts on a message board, as of this writing, just needs to be noted at least one time.

Lol touchè. 
But here’s the thing- all this whining doesn’t seem grounded in fact. I’ll ask you the same two questions I’ve asked others:

1) what did the GOP gain?

2) what did it cost them?

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

yes, because in chaos the Republicans fracture and don't even get to 50 votes to reopen the government even with the fillibuster gone. Also with the fillibuster gone they would be completely and utterly fucked. There would be so much shit passed or undone at midterms it would be the end of the GOP. It's the end of MAGA. People would have remembered the thanksgiving that they couldn't eat and that they couldn't travel to see their family for DECADES. 

They would have not only held on long enough, they would have done it in such embarrassing and completely incompetent and public fashion that the majority of those elected wouldn't be able to seek re-election because of the stink on them.

You are severely understating what the eventuality was. That eventuality involved a lot of pain from tens, if not hundreds of millions of Americans. 

I like how people think if the Rs ended the filibuster tomorrow, they wouldn't turn around and put it back in place the day before a Dem majority took over.  Then said Dem majority would stand around with their thumbs up their asses and do nothing because sanctity, decorum and reasons.

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Posted (edited)

Bozo's not wrong, he's just an asshole.  By most measures, the Dems still "won" the shutdown. But they won this like Auburn beat Mississippi State 3-2 in 2008, when they had the chance to run up the score.

Most of the people who will be marginal voters in 2026 in potential swing districts/states will have completely forgotten about this within a month, probably sooner. The undecided American voter has the memory of a goldfish and the tidal wave of shit Trump and the GOP have been and will keep dumping on everyone will overwhelm everything else. Dems should absolutely be better at messaging, but the GOP is about to make things so bad that dysfunctional Dem messaging likely won't even matter.

My preference would've been for them to stick it out another week or two after which time I think Trump would've gotten the Senate GOP to cave and abolish the filibuster, because that needs to happen and this set of Dems won't do it if they manage to take both houses and the presidency in 2028. That would've also made it easier to pin the entire thing on Trump and the GOP, which would've been a nice bonus and probably would've shifted the odds in 2026 further in our favor, but the gains would've been marginal. 

What's frustrating is that there's still somewhere between 8 and probably 20ish Senate Dems that for various reasons just can't really adequately fight GOP fascism.  We all want those fuckers to wake up and understand that the Republicans who are smiling to their faces are killing their friends and family and that they need to stop pretending that it can still be politics as usual, but it's pretty clear that's asking a leopard to change its spots. So the debacle in March and this cave are at least useful in illustrating who need to catch some primary challenges. 

Edited by wildcat09
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Posted
8 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The democrats are the drunk dude at last call settling for the fatty instead of maintaining his dignity and snapping one off at home.

So… had sex?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The democrats are the drunk dude at last call settling for the fatty instead of maintaining his dignity and snapping one off at home.

2a77c81bdb353712f6c5fc0551b7503c8542b905

Getting a little fucking judgey, aren't we?

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Posted
32 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

My preference would've been for them to stick it out another week or two after which time I think Trump would've gotten the Senate GOP to cave and abolish the filibuster, because that needs to happen and this set of Dems won't do it if they manage to take both houses and the presidency in 2028. That would've also made it easier to pin the entire thing on Trump and the GOP, which would've been a nice bonus and probably would've shifted the odds in 2026 further in our favor, but the gains would've been marginal. 

I would have liked to see another week, but just so Trump could continue to try to cut off SNAP benefits at the detriment of many Republican and non-voters. 

All philosophical arguments for or against the filibuster aside, I would really rather have Trump not have a filibusterless Senate for the next 3+ years.  The short term sucks right now and that would make it worse.  I have no idea what is going to happen in 2028, but I want the Senate Republicans to have an excuse for not passing whatever crazy shit Trump reads on Twitter. Granted, in order for it to matter, Democrats need to use it, which will piss off Trump, and thus endangers it.  So it's a game of chicken.  

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I would have liked to see another week, but just so Trump could continue to try to cut off SNAP benefits at the detriment of many Republican and non-voters. 

All philosophical arguments for or against the filibuster aside, I would really rather have Trump not have a filibusterless Senate for the next 3+ years.  The short term sucks right now and that would make it worse.  I have no idea what is going to happen in 2028, but I want the Senate Republicans to have an excuse for not passing whatever crazy shit Trump reads on Twitter. Granted, in order for it to matter, Democrats need to use it, which will piss off Trump, and thus endangers it.  So it's a game of chicken.  

 

Again, they wouldn’t have had to abolish the filibuster entirely. Just an exception to pass the budget. They’ve done it multiple times for other stuff. 

Posted
6 hours ago, Nivek said:

I appreciate you trying to apply logic and reason.   The failure of the Democratic Party thinking is that they can use the Republican votes against funding the ACA as a wedge issue in the next round of elections, as if people will remember who voted for what.  How many times have we seen Republican politicians take credit for things they voted against, and barely any political pushback is observed or media attention is given?   Too many to count.  

An indefinite shutdown which would harm big business, would create the political pressure that Republicans would not be able to ignore.  They jerked themselves off at the thought of starving families and uneducated children, and climaxed on special education being destroyed.  But they cower in fear of their base losing share value.  

I don't think they think they can use Republican votes for anything.  That would be stupid.  As you rightly say, nobody will remember who voted for what.  You're dead correct that we have waaaay too many examples of Republican officeholders taking credit for shit they flamboyantly opposed (e.g., the Biden Infrastructure Act).

They think that without the ACA subsidies, the cost of healthcare will go up both this year and, importantly, next year.  The premiums for 2027 are going to come out right before the midterms, and they're going to be catastrophically awful.  Trump and the Republicans will be rightly blamed--not because of anything anybody voted for/against, but for the far more basic reason that a Republican is in the White House.

That's why I say it is a cynical play.  And I love a cynical play.  Because those are really the only plays that work.

6 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

My complaint about their behavior in this shut down is almost entirely that they fucked this part of it up. Hell, the easy message right now would be "they threatened to starve people and we weren't willing to let Americans starve" and they can't even consistently say that. Durbin is whining about nobody understands senate procedure, others are talking about how if the GOP doesn't vote for the ACA subsidies at an unspecified later date then people will know the GOP doesn't like the ACA, and King and Fetterman have basically just said "I am personally a pussy." I'd say it's stunning how inept their messaging has been, except it's entirely consistent with what we typically see from elected Democrats over the age of 40.

This is what happens when elected officials try to play pundit.  They just can't help themselves.  They love to tell you how much more they understand about electoral politics than you do.  But playing pundit gets in the way of effective messaging.  

So you're right.  They need to cut that shit out.  The message is the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen.  Period.  Then shut the fuck up.

How's that going to play in the next election, a CNN reporter might ask?  "I don't really know, and it really doesn't matter--the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen."

Are you concerned that your base is going to be angry that you didn't get more, an MSNBC correspondent might enquire?  "I's hope not, but it really doesn't matter--the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen."

But these people are all fucking assholes who are super-eager to let you know that they know more than you do.  Dumb fuckers.

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Posted
48 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The democrats are the drunk dude at last call settling for the fatty instead of maintaining his dignity and snapping one off at home.

What is this…dignity…of which you speak? I am unfamiliar with this.

 

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think they think they can use Republican votes for anything.  That would be stupid.  As you rightly say, nobody will remember who voted for what.  You're dead correct that we have waaaay too many examples of Republican officeholders taking credit for shit they flamboyantly opposed (e.g., the Biden Infrastructure Act).

They think that without the ACA subsidies, the cost of healthcare will go up both this year and, importantly, next year.  The premiums for 2027 are going to come out right before the midterms, and they're going to be catastrophically awful.  Trump and the Republicans will be rightly blamed--not because of anything anybody voted for/against, but for the far more basic reason that a Republican is in the White House.

That's why I say it is a cynical play.  And I love a cynical play.  Because those are really the only plays that work.

This is what happens when elected officials try to play pundit.  They just can't help themselves.  They love to tell you how much more they understand about electoral politics than you do.  But playing pundit gets in the way of effective messaging.  

So you're right.  They need to cut that shit out.  The message is the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen.  Period.  Then shut the fuck up.

How's that going to play in the next election, a CNN reporter might ask?  "I don't really know, and it really doesn't matter--the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen."

Are you concerned that your base is going to be angry that you didn't get more, an MSNBC correspondent might enquire?  "I's hope not, but it really doesn't matter--the Republicans were going to starve people, and we couldn't let that happen."

But these people are all fucking assholes who are super-eager to let you know that they know more than you do.  Dumb fuckers.

I think part of it is that in their minds they're thinking "well we got a vote, and then when the Republicans vote against restoring the ACA subsidies we can send out fundraising emails about how they just voted against healthcare!" It's classic too-clever-by-half Dem nonsense, as if going on tv every day and saying "they wanted to starve 40 million people to death" wouldn't be more effective for fundraising.

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Posted

"They don't care about you.  They want to hurt you to make money for them and their billionaire buddies."

Simple fucking sentences, people.  If you're explaining the details of "how," you're both wasting your time and fucking LOSING.

"They want to fuck you over.  They've already fucked you over and gotten rich doing it.  And they think you're too stupid to know when you're being fucked."  Shit like that.  Constantly.



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