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Wally Fairway

Surly #Stonks

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Super Tuesday interference by the Fed is killing my options.....I'll wait a couple of days to see if this is a real bounce or a dead cat bounce. 
My gut says that this virus economic impact hasn't been fully valued yet, but then my gut isn't a great way to make investment decisions.

I've actually started to think about consolidating my investments, getting more heavily into SPY and then sell calls and make theta my bitch and try to earn a few point better than the SPY return.

Wally's aggy investing motto - "What could possibly go wrong?"

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20 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

God help me for going short $IWM right before the close.  No fucking way this market is done going down and I'm of the belief this is your dead cat bounce.  It might last another day or two but overall it has more room on the downside than upside.

So the question is, when do you cover?
Also, what is the cost to borrow IWM to short it? 

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36 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Just bought some TPOR. 

I'm practically rooting for the Coronavirus at this point.

Isn't that a bet ON the travel industry, not a short 3x ETF?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Isn't that a bet ON the travel industry, not a short 3x ETF?

Yeah, I'm a complete idiot -- I read it wrong. 

Fortunately, in the 20 minutes it took me to figure out, the price went up:

Capture.jpg

Buy low, Sell high is how you do it!

So why is there not an Inverse ETF on the Transportation Sector???

Edited by Beau Vine

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8 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Yeah, I'm a complete idiot -- I read it wrong. 

Fortunately, in the 20 minutes it took me to figure out, the price went up:

Capture.jpg

Buy low, Sell high is how you do it!

So why is there not an Inverse ETF on the Transportation Sector???

I know I've done it - bought calls when I meant to buy puts, sold puts when I meant to buy puts....and in most of those cases I've been able to close out the position at a slight gain. But I've felt lucky and stupid each and every time....but then again I haven't done that since last Friday!

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11 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Yeah, I'm a complete idiot -- I read it wrong. 

Fortunately, in the 20 minutes it took me to figure out, the price went up:

Capture.jpg

Buy low, Sell high is how you do it!

So why is there not an Inverse ETF on the Transportation Sector???

r/wallstreetbets worthy

nice south park GIF

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So is this bump and opportunity to buy puts, or a reversion to the mean (general stock index growth trendline)?

I'm thinking about selling some calls, to invest in some puts....or should I sell some puts to invest in calls?
The aggy investor inside me can't make up his mind.

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Looks like biotech gonna move with Bern no longer being felt. $xbi

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I have plenty to do at work today, so of course I'm trying to figure the market projection.

I've pondered some 20% out of the money options, and here is what I've found and it is fascinating

With SPY at $306 - I looked at $366 calls (20% above the current price) and $245 puts (20% below the current price)

- 6/30 calls are $0.30 and puts are $3.50
 - 9/30 calls are $0.53 and puts are $5.47
- 12/31 calls are $1.15 and puts are $7.29

so that tells me the market is perceived to be more likely to go down, and it also give me an idea about the price of time (theta), and volatility

I'll post more later, but I'm thinking I might cash out my remaining March expiry puts and get off that daily rollercoaster and keep the longer terms as continued hedges.

 

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34 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So is this bump and opportunity to buy puts, or a reversion to the mean (general stock index growth trendline)?

I'm thinking about selling some calls, to invest in some puts....or should I sell some puts to invest in calls?
The aggy investor inside me can't make up his mind.

I am buying small put positions across a few different health insurers but primarily UNH.  They are feeling their oats today with Bernie cleared out, but still have significant short term risks imo. #stonks. 

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To the ignorant stock newb me... options trading seems like trying to win a parlay ... most likely to lose all of your money. 

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4 hours ago, dad said:

To the ignorant stock newb me... options trading seems like trying to win a parlay ... most likely to lose all of your money. 

I mean, it can be - for example if you are selling naked options you could lose many many many times your initial investment. However, if you use them intelligently and responsibly, they can often act as a hedge to protect yourself from wild market swings and capture a defined return during those swings.

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Posted (edited)

Airlines are scaling back flights (united by 10- 20%), most corporations are restricting non essential travel, major trade shows/events are getting cancelled and we haven't even seen the explosion of cases in the US that will come. Best case, the economy takes a shit for one quarter, worst case.....is much worse. Consider all of the low income hourly workers that live paycheck to paycheck. If they miss work because of illness or reduced hours ( people not eating out etc...), they start defaulting on bills etc.... We don't have the manufacturing that China does, but look at their recent numbers after they were forced to implement some pretty draconian measures

Quote

A Chinese government index that tracks sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturers fell to its lowest level on record in February, dropping deep into territory that indicates a contraction. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday that its 15-year-old index tumbled to 35.7 from 50.0 in January—below even the lowest level recorded during the global financial crisis.

A related index that tracks purchasing plans in services industries plunged to a record low of 29.6—deep below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction—suggesting weakness in construction, transportation, restaurants and tourism.

This market is deranged. It made no fucking sense when the market was all time highs and China (manufacturing capital of the world) was shut down, so I bought a lot of puts. In a stroke of luck, I unloaded 90% of those positions last Friday in the AM and made enough profits that my trading portfolio increased 30% even though every stock that I owned in that account went down. Now the S&P already made back half the losses  because Joe f'n Biden did well on Super Tuesday??? We have a lot of shit  to navigate as a country between now and November.

I was planning on just banking my profits and moving on, but now I am strongly considering dumping all of those profits back into more SPY puts. Have to give some thought to the time frame and strike price, but the current price levels again make no fucking sense. The market is higher now than it was 6 months ago when nobody had heard of Covid19 and we were at all time highs. Yeah its straight gambling, but its also house money. I didnt think I would get the same chance twice in one month. Already started with some Monday puts at 300.

And as I type this, just received an email that our annual sales/user conference in April has been cancelled and is going "virtual". That's another few million dollars that won't make it into the economy. 

 

Edited by Blotto

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Interested to hear what strikes and contracts you end up with after screening.  Does anybody have a good tool for screening sets of options against various strategies. I usually just donkey my way around it, but there has to be some sites that will run some simple screens as a starting point.  Or any tools anybody has been for the schwab ss platform?

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On 3/4/2020 at 10:12 AM, Anastasis said:

I am buying small put positions across a few different health insurers but primarily UNH.  They are feeling their oats today with Bernie cleared out, but still have significant short term risks imo. #stonks. 

Closed out half of my positions to take some money off the table. Gonna hold the rest a bit longer to see if we can find a hot shooter. #NobodyGoesBrokeSellingWhileItsGreen

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27 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

It will find its way elsewhere.

Eventually, I guess you can make the argument that all money changes hands but that's approx 1000 people not travelling from all over the world to Orlando (cant say I'm bummed). Instead we'll all be watching zoom feeds. It's not getting rescheduled, its cancelled. Replicate that countless times as many companies make the same decision and it will definately have an impact this quarter and next (at a minimum).

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Closed out half of my positions to take some money off the table. Gonna hold the rest a bit longer to see if we can find a hot shooter. #NobodyGoesBrokeSellingWhileItsGreen

I unloaded my 3-6 and reloaded with some 3-16 puts, and put my toe into the selling covered calls with a 3-31 SPY 304.
I got burned with Monday expiry, though they are cheaper you have to be luckier to win; I'll pay more for 10 day expiry and then a 1 day change in market trajectory doesn't wipe out value.
Time to buckle my seatbelt, its gonna be a bumpy ride. 

options-3-05-2020-EOD

 

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Interested to hear what strikes and contracts you end up with after screening.  Does anybody have a good tool for screening sets of options against various strategies. I usually just donkey my way around it, but there has to be some sites that will run some simple screens as a starting point.  Or any tools anybody has been for the schwab ss platform?

like a stock simulator?

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5 hours ago, Hmmm said:

like a stock simulator?

Thats a great link.  But not exactly what I was thinking. Seems like there should be a tool where you can enter certain parameters.  Your sentiment on the underlying, timeframe, risk tolerability, with drop down for different option strategies, and something that could output the optimal contracts and strikes for that combination.  

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Posted (edited)

Is SPY headed to 250?

Beer virus pushing it that way with national event cancellations....prove me wrong aggy idiotic investors

Edited by Wally Fairway
I'm an idiot

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On 2/28/2020 at 12:42 PM, Anastasis said:

How stupid of an idea is it to start selling SPY puts at these levels?  I am thinking like Apr 17 @275. I mean, we can't drop 3% every day right?

LULZ.

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On 3/5/2020 at 12:22 PM, Anastasis said:

Closed out half of my positions to take some money off the table. Gonna hold the rest a bit longer to see if we can find a hot shooter. #NobodyGoesBrokeSellingWhileItsGreen

Closed out the rest of that put position after the market reopened. All cash now, and picking off a few very small things to hold as long or not long as needed.  

 

Need some stonkee sweat to keep the dopamine flowing, though. 

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making leveraged bets in a volatile market, how can it go wrong

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The Apr 17 110 Disney puts I bought last week briefly spiked to $19 this morning but unfortunately I was unable to get a trade to execute at that price.  

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1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

The Apr 17 110 Disney puts I bought last week briefly spiked to $19 this morning but unfortunately I was unable to get a trade to execute at that price.  

I feel your pain, I'm trying to decide when to close out some puts

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Yeah.. I am not used to this.  99.9999999% of what I do with my f around stuff outside of my 401k/Roth I have set exit points for.  

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Opening bounce send like an opportunity to buy some puts at a more attractive price point, except volatility has increased prices across the board.

Don't look, just jump back into the fray. YOLO

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2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Opening bounce send like an opportunity to buy some puts at a more attractive price point, except volatility has increased prices across the board.

Don't look, just jump back into the fray. YOLO

Bought 10 SPY puts each for 3-20 $260 and 4-17 $250 .... thinking that toay's open is a dead elephant bounce, dead from beer virus and Bernie winning states today is just dancing on his grave.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

4-17 $250

Bought some of those a week ago on the rally to 310-ish. And they are currently the batch with my lowest strike price. Doesnt really seem that far-fetched now. 

 

Edited by Blotto

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2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Bought 10 SPY puts each for 3-20 $260 and 4-17 $250 .... thinking that toay's open is a dead elephant bounce, dead from beer virus and Bernie winning states today is just dancing on his grave.

 

50 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Bought some of those a week ago on the rally to 310-ish. And they are currently the batch with my lowest strike price. Doesnt really seem that far-fetched now. 

 

This is why #stonks are so addictive - and that you need to pace yourself, and also take a little off the table as you go.
3-20 $260 is up 50%
4-17 $250 is up 30%
since opening that position this morning

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Question: 
How much does the public panic (and the market react) if/when major sporting events are cancelled, or held without spectators?
for clarity sake - major sporting events meaning NCAA Div-1 tournament games, NBA/NHL/MLB games, and The Masters.

I'm thinking that close today is a good time to buy more puts, well almost any day as I've yet to see much of what I'd call good news or even a slow down in bad news.

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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Question: 
How much does the public panic (and the market react) if/when major sporting events are cancelled, or held without spectators?
for clarity sake - major sporting events meaning NCAA Div-1 tournament games, NBA/NHL/MLB games, and The Masters.

I'm thinking that close today is a good time to buy more puts, well almost any day as I've yet to see much of what I'd call good news or even a slow down in bad news.

My strategy has been to sell my closest expiring SPY puts after every big fall,and then replace when the market corrects. Sold all of my puts expiring this week yesterday morning pretty  much after the market opened. Still hold SPY Puts at 300, 275 and 250 expiring between 3/20 and 4/17. If the SPY sniffs 290 today, I'm likely to jump back in with a mix of Friday puts and more puts. Shit, I'm tempted right now at 285. 

To your point above, we are just experiencing the beginnings of the cancellations, shutdowns here in the US, and I think we have one more round of panic selling once that reality hits hard. While there is no real technical analysis behind the number, I kind of planned on SPY 250-260 being the number where I would adjust to a neutral position and take a breather to evaluate whether the hysteria will pan out. Just really mashing buttons at this point, but its worked out pretty damn well so far. 

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3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

This is why #stonks are so addictive - and that you need to pace yourself, and also take a little off the table as you go.
3-20 $260 is up 50%
4-17 $250 is up 30%
since opening that position this morning

see below

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Question: 
How much does the public panic (and the market react) if/when major sporting events are cancelled, or held without spectators?
for clarity sake - major sporting events meaning NCAA Div-1 tournament games, NBA/NHL/MLB games, and The Masters.

I'm thinking that close today is a good time to buy more puts, well almost any day as I've yet to see much of what I'd call good news or even a slow down in bad news.

should have sold when I posted earlier - LOL 😥😥😥

40 minutes ago, Blotto said:

My strategy has been to sell my closest expiring SPY puts after every big fall,and then replace when the market corrects. Sold all of my puts expiring this week yesterday morning pretty  much after the market opened. Still hold SPY Puts at 300, 275 and 250 expiring between 3/20 and 4/17. If the SPY sniffs 290 today, I'm likely to jump back in with a mix of Friday puts and more puts. Shit, I'm tempted right now at 285. 

To your point above, we are just experiencing the beginnings of the cancellations, shutdowns here in the US, and I think we have one more round of panic selling once that reality hits hard. While there is no real technical analysis behind the number, I kind of planned on SPY 250-260 being the number where I would adjust to a neutral position and take a breather to evaluate whether the hysteria will pan out. Just really mashing buttons at this point, but its worked out pretty damn well so far. 

it sniffed 290 at the close today, I bought earlier (too early {shrug} ) - I will say that there are days that is is tough to get to sleep, like tonight when the market closes (SPY) closes on a 12 point (+4%) rise in the last couple of hours and on increasing volume. 

Image result for coin toss gif

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The Fail-Safe Canecutter method:

1. Buy any widget at price X.

2. When you find somebody who will pay 70% more than X, sell the damn widget. Go buy different widgets.

2B. Possibly hang onto the original widget without selling it as the price rises, because you get greedy.

3. If a widget's price fails to increase, or decreases, don't sell it. Act like you never bought it. Deny knowledge.

4. Don't piss off your wife.

5. Don't tell your kids where you hid the money.

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1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

The Fail-Safe Canecutter method:

1. Buy any widget at price X.

2. When you find somebody who will pay 70% more than X, sell the damn widget. Go buy different widgets.

2B. Possibly hang onto the original widget without selling it as the price rises, because you get greedy.

3. If a widget's price fails to increase, or decreases, don't sell it. Act like you never bought it. Deny knowledge.

4. Don't piss off your wife.

5. Don't tell your kids where you hid the money.

1. okay, but really #stonk mentality is buy 10 widgets
2. start selling widgets at up 50%, hold onto last 2-4 widgets because they are free - only sell once you hit +250%
2b. widgets held can expire because I am greedy, but I'll always have the memory of how much they used to be worth
3. Cry, buy more widgets and chase 
4. I've fucked this up so many times, why change now
5. Buy new golf sticks & bag, hide yo money in there
6. Profit?

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Sold the last of my original SPY 300 puts that I bought when SPY was around 325. Bought in at 2.25, sold at 27.50. Best of luck amigo, I'm trading you in for a younger sexier model.

And banking some profits.

 

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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Buying a couple friday SPY call lotto tickets.

Yeah, holding these options is a hard proposition - good luck, I take you are betting on a dead elephant bounce.
I'm thinking the fed does something, I question how effective it will be; that the President will do something with taxes to provide stimulus; but people only want to spend on toilet paper and purell; or that Saudi says they were only kidding about opening the spigot. Or everything shuts down in the USA for the next 3-4 weeks and the panic continues.

Who the fuck really knows

Image result for animal house gif all is well

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9 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah, holding these options is a hard proposition - good luck, I take you are betting on a dead elephant bounce.

Just rolling dice with a little house money. With the wild alternating swings and the pressure mounting, I woudn't be shocked to see something in the works for later this week whether fed or wrt Saudia or something else.  No fucking clue, just putting a very small amount of house money on the sweat.  

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