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2020 House election thread

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Have enough Democrats suddenly moved in that district in the last 8 months to usurp Chip Roy?  No.  Will enough move in between now and November of 2020?  Probably not.  

It's not 2.1% differential for Davis.  It was 2.8% for Kopser, it'll be wider for Davis.  She's not as attractive in that district as Kopser is/was.  

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Honestly, it probably mostly comes down to district demographics.  Have enough D's moved into the hill country and enough olds died to find the 2.1 points she needs?

It's not the Hill Country where the Ds move.  That's where the olds die (I'm looking at you, Kerrville).  It's South Austin where the Ds are moving into.

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not the Hill Country where the Ds move.  That's where the olds die (I'm looking at you, Kerrville).  It's South Austin where the Ds are moving into.

That's right. Those Austin and San Antonio suburbs that looked red and juicy in 2011 redraw don't look so spicy any more. 

My point is that demographics are driving this districts swing left.  I'm inclined to believe that it won't be enough to turn it blue, either.  But I also wouldn't be shocked if she pulls of an upset due to the changes.  

Edited by Bateshorn

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8 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Related to my post: we will see a D+ something wave in 2020  (I think the presidential year will tamp down the size of that wave).  Plus his district is changing.  Any generic D could beat him with those factors.  The one person that isn't a generic D is running.  She will be the one exception to the new truth that to does not matter who the individual candidate is.

Presidential turn out levels should hurt Will Hurd I’m hoping.

 

the guy is like a cat who has 9 lives, but when I look at the map and where his district is, I’m always amazed that seat isn’t blue. Democrats should be able to beat him.

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12 hours ago, Lobo said:

Have enough Democrats suddenly moved in that district in the last 8 months to usurp Chip Roy?  No.  Will enough move in between now and November of 2020?  Probably not.  

It's not 2.1% differential for Davis.  It was 2.8% for Kopser, it'll be wider for Davis.  She's not as attractive in that district as Kopser is/was.  

350,000 voted in that district in 2016 and 2018. It will be 400,000 in 2020. At least 10,000 died and 10,000 moved so there will be 70,000 new voters in a district that is over 30% Latino. 

Almost all of those new 70,000 voters will come from Comal, Bexar, Travis, and Kyle counties. The Democratic percentage in those counties is going up over 3% every two years. Except Comal which has been flat due to non participation of Latino voters.

Edited by RayDog

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Where are you getting the 70,000 new voters (not residents, voters) between 2018 and 2020?  And how many of those are Latinx in your projection?  And this magically changes the advantage of incumbency how?  I don't like Chip Roy, he played dirty with my friend and business associate.  But I fail to see how Wendy is just gonna flip a switch and do better there because of a tiny, tiny uptick in demographics in her favor while not having nearly the compelling story that Kopser has, and with Chip having 2 years of incumbency at his back. 

Like it or not, short of a retirement or redistricting...House incumbencies especially one like 21 (which is not heavily red, but certainly a solid lean red)...carry a 95% re-election rate, if not higher.  Now, it's a POTUS year and we're dealing with a real shitheap in the Oval, so I'll tick back down to 90% for Chip.  Wendy has great name recognition, so maybe down to 85%.  But she's no Kopser, so I put Chip back up at 90%.  But hey, that's why they play the games and we've got 15 months and Chip continues to look more and more like the guy in your freshman year dormitory that constantly told the R.A. what you and your friends were up to down the hall.  

Edited by Lobo

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21 hours ago, Lobo said:

Where are you getting the 70,000 new voters (not residents, voters) between 2018 and 2020?  And how many of those are Latinx in your projection?  And this magically changes the advantage of incumbency how?  I don't like Chip Roy, he played dirty with my friend and business associate.  But I fail to see how Wendy is just gonna flip a switch and do better there because of a tiny, tiny uptick in demographics in her favor while not having nearly the compelling story that Kopser has, and with Chip having 2 years of incumbency at his back. 

Like it or not, short of a retirement or redistricting...House incumbencies especially one like 21 (which is not heavily red, but certainly a solid lean red)...carry a 95% re-election rate, if not higher.  Now, it's a POTUS year and we're dealing with a real shitheap in the Oval, so I'll tick back down to 90% for Chip.  Wendy has great name recognition, so maybe down to 85%.  But she's no Kopser, so I put Chip back up at 90%.  But hey, that's why they play the games and we've got 15 months and Chip continues to look more and more like the guy in your freshman year dormitory that constantly told the R.A. what you and your friends were up to down the hall.  

This is the best I could come up with on District 21 by spending a few minutes looking at data from the American Community Survey from 2016 and 2017 and then extrapolating that one-year change to make a projections for 2018, 2019, and 2020. Glean from it whatever you will.

Population 18+      
  Total NonHispanic Hispanic Hispanic Share
2016 601,888 426,965 174,923   29.1%
2017 615,993 435,860 180,133   29.2%
2018 630,429 444,930 185,498   29.4%
2019 645,202 454,179 191,023   29.6%
2020 660,322 463,610 196,713   29.8%
         
'18-'20        
% chg. 4.7% 4.2% 6.0%  
# chg. 29,894 18,679 11,215  37.5%

 

Basically, among the 18+ population in the district, ~38% of projected growth will have been attributable to the Hispanic/Latino cohort -- or about 11,000 new eligible voters out of a total 30,000. As a result, the total share of the Hispanic/Latino population among adults is expected to rise from 29.4 percent to 29.8 percent. I would surmise that this rising share (relative to other parts of the state) is largely attributable the suburban nature of the district where the NonHispanic population is also rising at a really fast rate. Therefore, we shouldn't expect Hispanics to provide a push for going over the "tipping point" in District 21 within the next couple years.

This would suggest that whoever is the candidate that can beat Chips Aroy will have to appeal to the overall growing suburban vote.

Here were the results from 2018:

Candidate Votes %
Roy-R 176,913 50.30%
Kopser-D 167,020 47.50%
Santos-L 7,497 2.10%

The total cast ballots were 351,430 or 55.7 percent of the 18+ population.

Let's assume that the previous projections were correct and that the share of the 18+ population that votes rises by 10 percentage points to 65.7%, then we can expect 82,696 more ballots to be cast in 2020 than 2018. Using these calculations, we can say that it's still within reach:

  Roy Dem Lib
2018 base 176,913 167,020 7,497
share of new 41.0% 54.0% 5.0%
total new 33,906 44,656 4,135
       
2020 projection 210,819 211,676 11,632

Basically, the trick will be ensuring that the new Dem candidate will need to attract 54-56 percent of all new voters (depending on the pull of the Libertarian candidate) while still retaining the base from 2018. Honestly, that doesn't seem too far-fetched.

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My extrapolation was simpler. 8 million votes in Texas in 2012, 9 million in 2016, and 8.3 million in 2018.  A minimum of 10 million is expected to vote in 2020. 

District 21s share if that increase is 35,000 to 70,000, but could be more if 11 million vote statewide. Then you add the 20,000+ new voters who replace old voters that died or moved.

I consider 60,000 new voters in district 21 to be the minimum, with 70,000 being likely and 80,000 or more being possible.

Roy won by 10,000.

 

Edited by RayDog

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Pete Olsen is retiring.  R+4 district. 

Edited by Js1

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On 7/22/2019 at 12:53 PM, Ghost of LL said:

It's not the Hill Country where the Ds move.  That's where the olds die (I'm looking at you, Kerrville).  It's South Austin where the Ds are moving into.

And of course we’re moving out of 21 soon because of husband’s grad school and won’t be able to vote for the D. At least we’re moving to Tarrant count where we can hopefully keep the D’s momentum there from 2018

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42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pete Olsen is retiring.  R+4 district. 

That's interesting.  Most of that district is Fort Bend County, which is now pretty solidly Democratic.

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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

And of course we’re moving out of 21 soon because of husband’s grad school and won’t be able to vote for the D. At least we’re moving to Tarrant count where we can hopefully keep the D’s momentum there from 2018

Remember to register. 

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's interesting.  Most of that district is Fort Bend County, which is now pretty solidly Democratic.

Yeaaaah....somebodies internals came back really bad.

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Pete Olsen is retiring.  R+4 district. 

Hearing this on my drive home from work this afternoon was music to my ears.

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's interesting.  Most of that district is Fort Bend County, which is now pretty solidly Democratic.

True, but the 22nd has been gerrymandered to exclude the northern deep blue portions of Sugar Land and Missouri City. It runs east into Pearland as far as Webster and south as far as Alvin. That's a lot of red ground.

It's not a R +4. It was drawn up to be more like an R +10 or so, which is what it was prior to 2018. It is eminently flippable as an open seat, like TX-7 2018 flippable. The 2018 Dem, Sri Kulkarni, is running again and has almost $400,000 cash-on-hand as of right now.

It's probable that the R who will try to keep the seat red will be none other than Troy Nehls, who is not seeking reelection as county sheriff. Some folks down here have strong opinions of him.

Spoiler

spacer.png

Edited by berlinerbaer
Pic spoilered

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The House members always see the writing on the wall first. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The House members always see the writing on the wall first. 

 

More GOP retirements please.  Lots more!

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21 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

And of course we’re moving out of 21 soon because of husband’s grad school and won’t be able to vote for the D. At least we’re moving to Tarrant count where we can hopefully keep the D’s momentum there from 2018

Welcome aboard. I’ve been voting blue every election up here for the last 10 years.

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Only 13/197 Republicans are women. 2 are retiring already. 

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44 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

i don't believe there is any writing on any wall in alabama.

Or they know they’ll more than likely be in the minority again after 2020

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3 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Or they know they’ll more than likely be in the minority again after 2020

Someone did speculate her seat may be gone if/when Alabama loses a congressional seat.  But that wouldn't be until 2022 at the earliest. 

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1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Or they know they’ll more than likely be in the minority again after 2020

That does seem to be extremely likely. I can’t imagine the repubs having much stronger turnout than the Dems next year.

the house usually doesn’t sway majorly one way or the other in presidential years. It’s usually a single digit seat gain for either party. That margin wouldn’t flip the house this time.

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If you want to ask Burgess about whether or not those kids can walk out of the cage he's having a town hall on Tuesday night at 730. A Baptist church in Lewisville is hosting. 

Wait. That's the same time as the Democratic debate Rd. 2.

I wonder how that happened. 

Mat Pruneda was at an earlier one. He's going again. I sent him some dollars. He might lose by 20, but there's some fight in him and I reward that.

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There’s going to be way more announcements after recess. Always are. 

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be way more announcements after recess. Always are. 

Please be overwhelmingly republican retirements.

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2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

If you want to ask Burgess about whether or not those kids can walk out of the cage he's having a town hall on Tuesday night at 730. A Baptist church in Lewisville is hosting. 

Wait. That's the same time as the Democratic debate Rd. 2.

I wonder how that happened. 

Mat Pruneda was at an earlier one. He's going again. I sent him some dollars. He might lose by 20, but there's some fight in him and I reward that.

Thanks for sharing. I'm from Lewisville originally and just donated.

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Image result for and another one gif

UT-01 (R) Rob Bishop will not seek re-election

He won his seat in 2018 by 37 points.  Not a competitive seat, but very obvious even safe Republicans like Robey and Bishop know they will just be in the minority again and don't want it. 

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On 7/26/2019 at 7:17 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Please be overwhelmingly republican retirements.

Since the GOP lost many of the close districts in 2018, I would be surprised if we see the large wave of retirements like we did in 2017/18.   Most of the current House GOP are in fairly solid red disticts. 

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Since the GOP lost many of the close districts in 2018, I would be surprised if we see the large wave of retirements like we did in 2017/18.   Most of the current House GOP are in fairly solid red disticts. 

It will probably be 10-15 only because there's 5 (6 if you include Amash) that's a GOP-held tossup. 

 

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All demographic trends -- less white, less rural, less uneducated electorate -- means D improves.  But because it seems like every race that was decided late broke D in 2018, I bet the final tally doesn't look like a D wave.  Some of those may even flip back to R.  You could basically have a virtual repeat of 2018 and have a net loss of D seats.

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2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

All demographic trends -- less white, less rural, less uneducated electorate -- means D improves.  But because it seems like every race that was decided late broke D in 2018, I bet the final tally doesn't look like a D wave.  Some of those may even flip back to R.  You could basically have a virtual repeat of 2018 and have a net loss of D seats.

Yes they may lose a couple of those seats but there's about a 0.0% chance of the House flipping.  

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19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would be surprised if we see the large wave of retirements like we did in 2017/18.   Most of the current House GOP are in fairly solid red disticts. 

I don’t know.  If you’re a House R running for re-election in 2020, the campaign is going to be more brutal than 2018.   Unless he drops dead, there is no way around the election being about Trump and your campaign will have to carry his water no matter how revolting and morally compromising Trump makes it.  I’d be tempted to jump out just to avoid the headache and inevitable stigma of having to wash off Trump’s stink.  

Obviously many Rs will have no problem toeing the Trump line in 2020 but I imagine there are plenty saying to themselves, “Is this shit really worth it?  Even if I’m all but certain to win?”  

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
Not towing derp

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I don't think "is this shit worth it?" has anything to do with sharing a ticket with Trump.

I think it's more "do I want to be in the minority for 2 more years (if a Democrat wins) or potentially in the minority for another 4 years (if Trump wins)?" 

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7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think "is this shit worth it?" has anything to do with sharing a ticket with Trump.

I think it's more "do I want to be in the minority for 2 more years (if a Democrat wins) or potentially in the minority for another 4 years (if Trump wins)?" 

Yeah, either way I’d say there’s a no-win calculation being made...even if they could “win”. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Since the GOP lost many of the close districts in 2018, I would be surprised if we see the large wave of retirements like we did in 2017/18.   Most of the current House GOP are in fairly solid red disticts. 

I just want to get the nasty crusty old farts from the gop out of there. 

 

They’re not my party, but at least young republicans should be supportive ( or indifferent) to weed reform, gay rights, and other stuff that should be a no brainer in the year 2020. The more retirements from them, the better.

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In fact, it went for Donald Trump by a 53-43 margin, and the closest statewide performance by Democrats in 2018 was a 53-47 loss by Nikki Fried, the lone Democrat to prevail in a race for state office last year. But Democrats nevertheless have reason for optimism.

For starters, almost all of the 59th House District is located within the 15th Congressional District. That gives Hattersley a base of support that's already familiar with him since he currently represents about 21% of the district he's now seeking.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/7/29/1875269/-Florida-Republican-embroiled-in-loan-scandal-picks-up-top-tier-Democratic-foe

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Slightly off topic here, but

 

do you guys think the Texas Democrats have a decent chance of winning the house this year?  It would actually give them a seat at he table for redistricting.

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Slightly off topic here, but

 

do you guys think the Texas Democrats have a decent chance of winning the house this year?  It would actually give them a seat at he table for redistricting.

TBH, I think a fair amount depends on who the Dems put up for POTUS. If they put up Biden, some right-leaning Texans might stay home because they don't like Trump or Biden but figure they can live with either.  If it's Harris, Warren or Bernie, then they will camp out overnight to vote GOP.

A major change will be that straight ticket voting goes away for Texas starting with the 2020 election. I know the GOP calculated this was better for them while I think it's an unknown on how it will change the results. One impact is that lines could be longer as some people will take the time to manually vote straight ticket.  Will that discourage voters when they see longer lines?

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Slightly off topic here, but

 

do you guys think the Texas Democrats have a decent chance of winning the house this year?  It would actually give them a seat at he table for redistricting.

Decent? No.  Would it be more likely with a top-tier Senate candidate? Fuck yes it would be.

Need 9 seats. They also have to defend the 12 seats they flipped last year.  

64, 66, 67, 92, 93, 96, 108, 112, 134, 138 are your best pickup opportunities.  8 of those are North Texas. How much longer can Sarah Davis hang on in Harris County?  

Moral of the story: if the Democrat party's gains in the suburban female vote is real and not just a Trump-blip, then yes, they have a chance.  Because all of those seats are fast growing suburban seats in Dallas and Houston. 

Edited by Js1

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Decent? No.  Would it be more likely with a top-tier Senate candidate? Fuck yes it would be.

Need 9 seats. They also have to defend the 12 seats they flipped last year.  

64, 66, 67, 92, 93, 96, 108, 112, 134, 138 are your best pickup opportunities.  8 of those are North Texas. How much longer can Sarah Davis hang on in Harris County?  

Moral of the story: if the Democrat party's gains in the suburban female vote is real and not just a Trump-blip, then yes, they have a chance.  Because all of those seats are fast growing suburban seats in Dallas and Houston. 

I would agree with that.  Right now, I'd give them 1 chance in 4 (maybe 1 chance in 5).  But the reality is that their gerrymander is broken.  It's build on the assumption that that suburban, highly educated whites are going to be Republicans.  That's no longer true.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/455201-house-gop-fears-retirement-wave-will-lead-to-tsunami

 

good news good news.....

 

the more GOP retirements the better regardless of what district they represent.

i’d like to see that nasty little skunk devin Nunes retire or maybe if we’re lucky, California will give him a bad draw in reapportionment.

Edited by Voldemort86

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Slightly off topic here, but
 
do you guys think the Texas Democrats have a decent chance of winning the house this year?  It would actually give them a seat at he table for redistricting.

It'd put it at roughly Beto's chances to beat Cruz: Call it whatever relatively small percentage you want, the fact is everything would have to go exactly right. Most of the low hanging fruit was picked last year.

I'd imagine the 2021 gerrymander and 2022 elections will be the GOP battle of the bulge. The Austin strategy will be employed, grouping largely rural areas with small suburban pockets that vote increasingly Democratic. They will cede the big cities entirely, Austin will get its own district or two ironically.

It won't work forever, but it will keep Texas as red state house beyond the point when it starts voting D for President in the 2024 election.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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53 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/455201-house-gop-fears-retirement-wave-will-lead-to-tsunami

 

good news good news.....

 

the more GOP retirements the better regardless of what district they represent.

i’d like to see that nasty little skunk devin Nunes retire or maybe if we’re lucky, California will give him a bad draw in reapportionment.

 I’m not one to scream fake news but those “anonymous Republican strategist“ quotes seems like they were probably sourced from that guy in season five of the wire. 

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32 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 I’m not one to scream fake news but those “anonymous Republican strategist“ quotes seems like they were probably sourced from that guy in season five of the wire. 

Not so sure they're wrong.

Quote

 

Republican strategists say they are bracing for a new wave of exits after members check in with their families over the August recess. Two dozen Republicans won their reelection bids in 2018 by fewer than 5 percentage points; another 25 won by fewer than 10 points.

“There are going to be a lot more [retirements] to come,” said one consultant who works for House Republicans. “Between people finding themselves having to actually work hard for the first time in their long, lazy careers and members who came in in the majority and now hate life in the minority, it's just getting started.”

 

 

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See Rick Wilson. That is exactly the sort of language he uses to describe them.

'Everything Trump Touches Dies' is only the title of the book, he saves the better stuff for later. 

Here's his most recent tweet.

Remember at the start of the last Pres campaign he was working for Rubio. He's been a GOP operative for years. He's just one. There are quite a few out there willing to call the Freedom Caucus a bunch of lazy good for nothings. 

 

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