No evidence of ‘Rainey Street Ripper,’ Texas State study finds
The “Rainy Street Ripper” — the rumored serial killer allegedly pushing people into Lady Bird Lake — is nothing but an urban myth, according to a new study by Texas State University criminologists and the Austin Police Department.
The report, released Tuesday by Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025 and found they mirror historical patterns and the average risk of drowning in a growing Texas city. Researchers said the data revealed no time-and-place clusters or other indications of a serial killer, concluding there is “neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer” — reiterating what police have said for years.
"The number of drownings in Austin is a function of population, Lady Bird Lake visitation, and the proliferation of nearby bars and nightclubs," the report said. "While the shores of the Colorado River are not being stalked by a serial killer, the hazards of drowning in Texas remain a concern."
The shore of Lady Bird Lake is less than 100 feet from the end of Rainey Street, which hosts a thriving bar scene.
At least 21 bodies have been recovered from the lake since 2018, when three deaths in downtown waterways within three months sparked the first wave of serial-killer speculation. Police denied the rumors then, just as they do now.
The theory resurfaced with greater reach in 2023, when social media users tied it to Lady Bird Lake and the Rainey Street district, fueling viral TikTok videos and true crime chatter as more bodies were discovered. A Facebook group named “Lady Bird Lake Serial Killer -True Crime” was started that year, now boasting more than 92,500 followers.
Of the 189 drownings researchers examined, 58 fell within the estimated victim profile range of the rumored serial killer. According to the study, the rate of drownings within that range was higher for multiple years before 2023. The years 2015, 2018 and 2020 all had higher drowning rates, when adjusted for population, than 2023.
And the Rainey Street District is far from the city’s drowning epicenter, the report found. Between 2004 and 2025, just eight bodies fitting the target profile were recovered from Lady Bird Lake between Congress Avenue and Interstate 35, roughly one every 32 months.
The most recent body was found in late March.
The report notes that "murder is uncommon," elaborating that only 0.2% of all murders are homicidal drownings. Across the world, other rumored serial killers have also been declared myths, the authors explained, including the Smiley Face murderer, the Manchester Pusher and the New England serial killer.
Sensationalism across both traditional and social media is the true culprit, the study suggests. It concludes that such narratives thrive on drama and fear rather than facts, a dynamic that's spilled into the national media cycle. The authors pointed to coverage by Fox News, the Daily Mail and social media influencers. Last year, TV personality Nancy Gracy dedicated a 42-minute episode of her show “Crime Stories” to these fatalities.
"Look, you don't have to go to law school to figure out there's something very, very wrong at Lady Bird Lake," Grace said at the start of the episode.
Austin police have remained firm in their stance that there is no killer. They have repeatedly said that the only common factor between some of the deaths is the combination of alcohol and proximity to the lake, which the study confirms.
Only one of the 21 deaths has been ruled a homicide: Police said Josue Moreno, 45, was shot while driving his truck, which then crashed into the water. Joel Santiago Gonzalez-Paron, 18, later pleaded guilty to Moreno's murder.
The authors argue that lasting progress will come not from chasing lurid narratives, but from problem-oriented policing and evidence-based prevention. They point to Austin’s own efforts — nearly $1 million in safety upgrades on the Rainey Street Trailhead — as an example of how targeted measures can reduce drownings.
In 2023, the city began installing safety measures after emotional pleas from the families of two who died in the lake, Jason John and Martin Gutierrez. The improvements were finished last summer, including new lighting, fencing, sidewalk extensions and a camera. Since then, the number of drownings has decreased, according to the study.
D. Kim Rossmo and Zena Rossouw of Texas State University’s School of Criminal Justice and Criminology, along with Edward R. Anderson of the Austin Police Department, authored the paper.