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Everything posted by Brisketexan
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Yes....and no. Are people planning? Of course. Are they in any position to actually make a positive difference? Now, more than ever, FUCK NO they aren't. Here is the fucking brain trust in our government doing the planning that will ACTUALLY be implemented (don't tell me about the planning being conducted by the people who actually have intelligence and competence behind the scenes -- they are not only going to be completely ignored, the last ones remaining will be drummed out of the government entirely before the year is out): [in fairness, Sara Rue looks like she has a couple of good ideas, and I would like the chance to visit with her] The only "planning" that matters here is 1) the planning that Bibi is doing to keep manipulating Trump into doing whatever he wants, 2) the "planning" happening among the utter fucking clownshow pictured above, and 3) the planning that Trumpco and Kushner etc. are doing to figure out how to personally profit from all of this shit. Everything else -- you know, the stuff that professionals think of and that might make sense -- is utterly irrelevant. They might as well be a group of posters on Surly, we have about the same weight when it comes to actually influencing policy these days.
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He long ago backed himself into a corner. Donald Trump is terrible....yet everything he has done since January 20th is somehow always better than any other possible alternative. And attacking Iran is wrong and war is bad, yet his support for the regime is rapidly doing more to destabilize the world, participate in and foment more violent conflict than we've seen in decades, is unwavering. Neocons bad! Project 2025 and functionally declaring war on the entire planet good! Explaining the lack of difference between shitty outcomes is unnecessary!
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A whole bunch of this. For us, blowing shit up is super-duper-easy. It's impressive, no doubt -- watching Russia have a hard time of it emphasizes how good we are at it. It's the "literally every single thing that comes AFTER you blow some shit up" part that gives us fits. The Chinese try to plan decades, even a century ahead (and even they fuck it up hard on a regular basis). We have a hard time planning for anything farther away than....say it with me....two weeks.
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The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
Brisketexan replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
So, you HAVEN'T heard the good news about our lord and savior, Vic Mackey? -
The Ten Commandments - coming to a Texas classroom near you!
Brisketexan replied to Captainant's topic in Daily Texan
Infrastructure and basic government functionality is woke. -
Look, TACO tits' plans for Gumming Up America's Chances to Make Iran Great Again are proceeding as scheduled, even us Morons On the LEdge can see that.
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Do they matter? They're just ragheads! I'd fly 1,000 miles to smoke a camel! Rah rah jingoism!
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Also a bingo (not to diminish the risk created by the COMPLETE lesson being offered by adding Iran to the mix). The US becoming an unreliable (and even hostile) "ally" is the much greater risk point. The most effective strategy to limit nuclear proliferation was an approach of "you don't need a nuke; we'll protect you under the umbrella of OUR [America's] nuclear deterrent." Now that has gone in the shitter - our guarantee isn't worth a tinker's dam. So, you can't trust the US to protect you, and if you are on the verge of getting a nuke, the US is actually a great threat to attack you. Sounds to me like you oughta get a nuke quickly, and then reveal you have nukes before anyone can do anything about it.
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Based on the pieces left on the chess board, yes, that would be the smartest play. BUT... Based on the situation as it stands, and as we should expect from Israel and its lap dog (the United States), I don't think they'll be satisfied with anything LESS than regime change. Which means that the Iranian regime is backed into a corner, and Bobby's option listed above (the most rational one) is off the table. The Iranian regime faces an existential challenge, period. A cornered dog will bite. Really, it's the only option the dog has. That's why a SMART play is to always leave your opponent a way out. We (Israel and it's 100% controlled proxy) have no intention of doing that. I'm not saying it's a WINNING play for the Iranian regime. I'm saying it's likely their ONLY play, based on my admittedly non-expert view of the dynamic. Other expert-types share that view, though (see the piece in Foreign Affairs). Yes, it is, but, to temper that a bit....it's also textbook Medvedev. He is the world's designated nuclear saber-rattler. Seriously, he's mentioned using nukes five thousand eleventy times re the Ukraine war, for example. No, I don't think that any country is ready to "directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads," because doing so means taking full ownership of how Iran eventually uses that warhead. A nuke that says "made in Pakistan" goes off in Tel Aviv, Israel 100% launches a reprisal strike against 1) Iran and 2) Pakistan. Pakistan knows that, and isn't going to stick its neck out on this. Russia knows that, and while it might otherwise stick out its neck, it has bigger problems right now. China isn't going to allow itself to get roped into Iran's dumbfuckery. Neither is North Korea, for all of L'il Kim's idiocy, turning over his fate to the whim of mullahs isn't something he'll do. And, we're pretty much out of any reasonably likely suppliers. So, this is just Dimitri being Dimitri, and mostly, him giving Tucker Carlson talking points directly from their mutual boss. You and I attend the same denomination. The people of Iran, along with the people of Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, and Russia all got specific prayer mentions this morning. Because, you know....human beings, children of God, all that Jesus-y stuff.
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Fuckin' A, man. Fuckin' A. Right down to the "I really used to love Red Zins, they were my 'cheat code' red wine."
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She is what she’s always been: 100% grifting follower, 0% leader. Tulsi believes in the Tulsi brand, that’s the sum total of her principles.
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Oh…you know they had that intel. Oct 7 is turning out to be the best thing that ever happened to Bibi, and there’s not even a close second.
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What about the realistic plan WE have for their transition and rebuilding? First…you need a tremendous real estate developer, the best in the world, who can develop real estate at levels no one has ever seen before…..Trump Tower Tehran, coming to save the day!
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He is the most easily manipulated POTUS we’ve ever had. It’s breathtaking. He has zero strength of will. He is his psychoses, that’s his entire being.
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Oh, believe me, I know. We ingested the fatal dose a while back. It just takes some time for all the body’s systems to break down and fail leading to inevitable death. Just watching it all happen, because there’s no stopping it any more.
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Maybe…just maybe, you fuckstick, we hate him BECAUSE we love our country so damned much. If you love the body, you hate the thing that is poisoning and destroying it.
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But you also realize that between this, Ukraine, and North Korea, we’ve also made the ironclad case for the proposition of “if you don’t have a nuke, you nest get one pronto,” right? There’s a comprehensive approach that would reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation. We’ve fucked up that approach for 20+ years.
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Yep. It’s not about the effectiveness of the initial/primary military action. It’s about all of the actions, reactions, consequences, and dominoes falling into dominoes that come next. Fortunately, we are led by a cadre that has proven not to be short-term thinkers and are brilliant at 12-D chess….furk.
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Maybe this goes in the unpopular opinions thread, but fuck IPAs. I like beer. I grew up on lagers and Pilsners and kolsch’s and such. Now, I go to a bar, and of their 40 taps, 3 are something OTHER than an IPA, oatmeal stout, or some other shit like that. I just want a goddamned beer. A good one. A cold one. A beer. I have to search the tap menu for five minutes to find their Pacific Crest Trail Summer Smile Happy Time Joy to the World Kumbaya Lager. Fucking hell.
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Within a few days, he’ll find a way to spin this as a brilliant move, and it’s what he’s always wanted to happen, actually. At worst, he’ll say it could have been done better…but the regime still has his unwavering support, as it has all along. Give him some time.
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5 pints in a day is nothing for you. Oh, wait, that’s not beer? Nevermind, carry on.
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The “historic connotation” in which I was using the term was in connection with noted diplomat Darrell K Royal.
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I said there’s no real reason, perhaps a better term would have been “no compelling reason.” It’s just not a particularly necessary economic or geopolitical play, not like it was post-war. The US is doing fine without Iranian oil.
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I love that you seem to agree with my “it’s not just a simplistic ‘one thing’ as motive” observation….then immediately run back to “it’s nothing but a play to take their oil.” That play as the sole or even heavily weighted top motive doesn’t even make sense in the context of the modern/current energy economy. Sure, there’s wealth that can be exploited, and I’m CONFIDENT that the usual suspects will find a way to do so in the event of regime change, but there are multiple other compelling reasons to want regime change in Iran; shit, the other petro-states want it. Because Iran is a fucking cockroach that has destabilized the entire region for decades for no good reason. Chaos is bad for business.
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Yes and no. Oversimplification is your enemy, whether it be “they are bad guys who want a nuke and actively support terrorism” or “this is all about oil.” Both things can be true. Take oil out of the equation, and the world would still be better off if Iran wasn’t a violently hostile chaos agent. There’s no need for Persia to be so bellicose, particularly as to a nation they don’t even share a border with. The ramped-up Shiite hate against Israel and Jews is and always has been a transparent “let’s manufacture a perpetual enemy to keep our authoritarian government in power” move (FFS, we’re running the same play here in the US against Mexicans). It’s fucking pointless and has been almost 50 years of violence and bloodshed and exported terror. The world would indeed be much better off if Iran was governed by a regime that wasn’t singularly focused on authoritarianism and a pointless hatred and warfare against “Israel and the west.” But Iran of course would be much less important, and much less able to foment and support such assholery, if it did not have massive petroleum resources. And the history of western control and scheming for such control over those resources is a real thing. That said, there’s no real reason for “the west” to try to functionally capture Iran’s reserves. It’s a global commodity, China buys a bunch, etc. This isn’t the post WWII, Cold War, scramble for oil that set the table for the precious shenanigans in Iran. I don’t support US involvement in Iran in this conflict. I think this particular conflict is 90% driven by Bibi trying to save his ass and stay out of prison. I also think that Iran way fucking overplayed its hand, and got their ass handed to them in Syria and with Hezzbollah, and I shed no tears for either of those strategic losses. Iran is a bad actor, fucked around and found out, etc. I also think that the current conflict is unnecessary and is being fought for the wrong reasons by a bad actor.
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