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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. The weaker economies reliant on energy imports going to stay fucked for a while. Some because they fucked themselves (Germany) some because they just are in the crossfire.
  2. He read in his whataburger employee guide. Before it was stolen from his Brodozer. I really think this is going to go similar to ShaggyBevo and the asshole Eskimo man, but it will take time. Popcorn gif time.
  3. In. First off, it’s Haydn. No E. Yes, 94 is fantastic. My tastes are a little eclectic and I’m biased because my son is a decent cellist, but here’s a few of my favorites: Du Pre’s recording of Elgar Cello Concerto. Rostropovich recording of Dvorak Cello Concerto And I never miss watching the Vienna philharmonic play Strauss. The TV version has gotten kind of dumb for new years but it’s still fantastic watching the Radetzky March with everyone stomping their feet and clapping to it. I am a huge Wagner overture fan. His operas are over long and get exhausting but his music for the overtures is first class. Lastly, I really enjoy Bach in all forms but especially string ensemble. He is possibly the most mathematical of the composers.
  4. My thoughts: right now is a shitty time to buy because sellers are still feeling their value is high. Buyers are paying way more to borrow, but it doesn’t look like rates will come down for at least a year. I think aggressive negotiation is the best you can do and be flexible on location. If you’re not, you’re handicapped because there may not be much you can do other than hope someone has to sell. Specifically in Austin there is still catching up to do on demand and too little inventory that is market priced. I sold right at the peak, so I got incredibly lucky, but I bought almost as fast as I could because a) rates were climbing fast and b) the market I’m in (California coast) has no new inventory, ever. I suspect it will be three years out longer before I see rates below 5 percent again.
  5. Lol. Not luring me back in to that pile of shit. No sir. No way. Well maybe…
  6. Getting the flu shot today. Everyone except our 16 yo has gotten the new booster. We’re still all free from covid. Funny thing I’ve noticed is a big increase in masking at places like Trader Joe’s. About 50 percent now, and especially among the olds. It’s probably because there is very little stupidity about masking here. No one cares if you are wearing one or not.
  7. My post got deleted in the war thread since it had some political implications, even though I used the magic “No CR” air quotes. Sorry not sorry. This move by the idiot wing of the Democratic Party is why I am just anti Republican. It is infuriating when the executive has been handling it so well, with guys like Kinzinger backing them up. So now we have doofus McCarthy and a few dozen democrats free lancing foreign policy again? Fuck that.
  8. We’re doing our forecasting right now in business and it’s going to be a flat year, maybe even down slightly - single digits. That is after ten percent plus growth since 2010. So yeah it’s a full on recession and it’s going to last a year. 2023 will probably still suck. But I think 3q or 4q will start to accelerate. I do think interest rates are going to be the lagging indicator for recovery so the Fed is going to be chasing them down too far just like they chased them up too slowly.
  9. Wordle 490 5/6 🟩⬛⬛⬛🟨 🟩🟩🟨⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 One of the more irritating puzzles in a while.
  10. What IBRX doing? I have added more shares as it dives below 5 today. Also bought some more AMYZF. I’m living like it’s 2020 again. Maybe I’ll go scrape some HMBL off the pavement and mix it in with ALPP. The best I did on any of those crazy ones was XMET and FPVD. Lunacy.
  11. Scheiss bringing his a game. A class operator, that is. And 0.145 MGD won’t move the needle. It’s a tiny discharge. Unless it’s got some kind of unusual component in the raw waste, that could be done with a small membrane system and cost a couple of million to buy. Not much of a story and lots of more important stuff to worry about.
  12. Personally I think the covid supply shock showed everyone how dependent we’ve become on external manufacturers. It’s an annoyance for consumers but a National security issue for a lot of industries. Basically a giant wake up call to the US. And there were voices ahead of this, but mainly focused on trade, not supply chains.
  13. New analysis that’s seemed to fly under the radar about serious FAFO for the semiconductor and chip industries. Going to be very interesting to watch this unfold.
  14. His crash site and memorial plaque is about a half mile from me. my daughter loved that country road song when she was about 3 so I still have a soft spot for it. That’s all I have.
  15. That’s the size of it. I think in a grotesque way he can’t help himself with Twitter posts. But deep down he’s afraid he’s losing the Chinese market and that would be deadly to Tesla. Starlink will not be distributed in China. But Tesla doesn’t want to lose that market and in fact just got some preferential treatment. I can’t see this ending well for him. He’s too addicted to the feedback loop.
  16. Interesting thesis. I’m probably as conservatively positioned as I’ve been in a while outside of my stonk play account. I don’t like the macro feel at all right now. But I’m usually over pessimistic.
  17. Yeah. Speaking for all engineers, we’re surly assholes but not generally megalomaniacs. Sometimes.
  18. Apparently there’s a reason none of us are highly compensated market analysts. Fucking insanity.
  19. I entered that symbol and my computer caught fire. Thanks
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