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GDP growth per state


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1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

Haven’t read it but do they normalize GDP for the states? Otherwise, one company in Montana can swing that state’s GDP dramatically while it’d take 500 companies in Texas to have the same influence.

it's annual (and quarterly) real gdp growth. it's a unit-less percentage.  so if montana went from 100 to 106.7 it ends up at 6.7% on the map, while if california went from 1000 to 1078 it ends up at 7.8% on the map. 

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4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

it's annual (and quarterly) real gdp growth. it's a unit-less percentage.  so if montana went from 100 to 106.7 it ends up at 6.7% on the map, while if california went from 1000 to 1078 it ends up at 7.8% on the map. 

Yeah and to follow-up on that point, it's going to be more difficult for a state (like Montana) with less industry and less population to move the needle at all on GDP growth; so if they do have a big movement, something significant has happened to move the needle.

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3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I would have expected this to align more with migration trends more than it does. Probably some impact of remote work there.

It’s GDP growth by the quarter, right?  A lot

of those states that are shedding people are shedding people because they’ve been pretty shut down during the pandemic. The 4th q growth could be compared to 3rd Q being much lower due to pandemic restrictions. 
That’s a guess as to lack of alignment. 
What I’d really like to see is a comparison of 21 4th Q growth to 19 4th Q GDP by state as the last quarter before shit got unprecedentedly weird up in here. 

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s GDP growth by the quarter, right?  A lot

of those states that are shedding people are shedding people because they’ve been pretty shut down during the pandemic. The 4th q growth could be compared to 3rd Q being much lower due to pandemic restrictions. 
That’s a guess as to lack of alignment. 
What I’d really like to see is a comparison of 21 4th Q growth to 19 4th Q GDP by state as the last quarter before shit got unprecedentedly weird up in here. 

How much of the "shedding people" is a handful of mouthy people on Twitter or other social media vs. a real, measurable and material number of people leaving?  Seems like mostly the former, tbh.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

How much of the "shedding people" is a handful of mouthy people on Twitter or other social media vs. a real, measurable and material number of people leaving?  Seems like mostly the former, tbh.

No. The numbers are the numbers. Go look at UHaul data and all sorts of other metrics where you check on people actually moving and not popping off on Twitter. It’s a real thing this re-sorting. 

I personally as a mortgage guy deal with it monthly. Both my cousins have moved from Washington to Texas in the last 6 months. I’ve got another cousin moving out of California shortly. I only have 7 cousins and three of them have moved. I know that’s anecdotal but it fits with people who measure actual data. 
Hell, California lost electoral votes for the first time ever in the last census. 
 

https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/U-Haul-Growth-Index-Texas-Is-The-No-1-Growth-State-Of-2021-26380/

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

it's not exactly hard to find

 

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2019:Q3-2019:Q4

Dude- thanks for posting a graphic that I didn’t ask for. I said comparison of 2021 4Q to 2019 4th Q. At least I thought I did. Maybe I made that up in my mind. 
I looked it up and wrote it as I suspected I did. 2021 4th Q growth to 2019 4th W growth. 
my OU posted 4th Q quarter growth for 2019 which wasn’t relevant to what we were talking about. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Dude- thanks for posting a graphic that I didn’t ask for. I said comparison of 2021 4Q to 2019 4th Q. At least I thought I did. Maybe I made that up in my mind. 

2021 4Q is in the OP.  i gave you the 2019 4Q.  now you have both and can compare.  is that not what you wanted?

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13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. The numbers are the numbers. Go look at UHaul data and all sorts of other metrics where you check on people actually moving and not popping off on Twitter. It’s a real thing this re-sorting. 

I personally as a mortgage guy deal with it monthly. Both my cousins have moved from Washington to Texas in the last 6 months. I’ve got another cousin moving out of California shortly. I only have 7 cousins and three of them have moved. I know that’s anecdotal but it fits with people who measure actual data. 
Hell, California lost electoral votes for the first time ever in the last census. 

Yeah I've been very interested in how the pandemic/work-from-anywhere thing would re-shape the workforce (and possibly the country) in the coming years.

I'm especially interested living in a mid-sized city like Tulsa that has lost tons of great workers to Houston over the years because that's where most of the great energy jobs were.

I work for a large Fortune 500 energy company that is based here, but we have a huge office in Houston also, and the past 6 months have been pretty interesting, in terms of how they are filling jobs. Nothing is formalized yet, but almost every job posted now is flexible on location.  And we just announced that our flexible work policy, where you can basically work from home 3 days/week is permanent.

Also, a good friend of mine who left Tulsa for St. Louis several years ago for a big-time PR job is now moving back because her firm is letting her work from home 100% of the time.

These are also anecdotal examples, but it seems like this whole thing could be good for a place like Tulsa, with a good workforce and a relatively low cost of living, not crowded, no traffic, etc.

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18 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

How much of the "shedding people" is a handful of mouthy people on Twitter or other social media vs. a real, measurable and material number of people leaving?  Seems like mostly the former, tbh.

It's definitely real. It's all laid out in the 2021 ACS data from the Census Bureau. Now, this data is for July 2021, so next year's release will be more telling as to whether something like, say CA losing population outright, is a trend vs. a COVID-induced

 

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s GDP growth by the quarter, right?  A lot

of those states that are shedding people are shedding people because they’ve been pretty shut down during the pandemic. The 4th q growth could be compared to 3rd Q being much lower due to pandemic restrictions. 
That’s a guess as to lack of alignment. 
What I’d really like to see is a comparison of 21 4th Q growth to 19 4th Q GDP by state as the last quarter before shit got unprecedentedly weird up in here. 

I should've clarified that I was referring to the annual data, the quarter data is even more weird. But I agree that huge growth numbers could be due to shedding of stricter or more long term pandemic restrictions in certain states.

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16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. The numbers are the numbers. Go look at UHaul data and all sorts of other metrics where you check on people actually moving and not popping off on Twitter. It’s a real thing this re-sorting. 

I personally as a mortgage guy deal with it monthly. Both my cousins have moved from Washington to Texas in the last 6 months. I’ve got another cousin moving out of California shortly. I only have 7 cousins and three of them have moved. I know that’s anecdotal but it fits with people who measure actual data. 
Hell, California lost electoral votes for the first time ever in the last census. 
 

https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/U-Haul-Growth-Index-Texas-Is-The-No-1-Growth-State-Of-2021-26380/

That data doesn't mean much because CA has always led the country in both out-migration and in-migration.  It's population and economy dwarfs all other states. #2 Texas isn't even close...$2.6T vs $1.6T.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, elfenix said:

2021 4Q is in the OP.  i gave you the 2019 4Q.  now you have both and can compare.  is that not what you wanted?

No. I meant compare the growth (or reduction) of gdp on the 4th quarter of 2021 to that of Q 4 2019. 
So, if surlystan had an economy of 1 billion Amero’s in Q 4 2019 and 1.2 billion Amero’s in q4 2021, it’s growth rate from the original quarter measured to the next quarter measured would be 20%. 
This would capture the picture of where we are in the first quarter out of the pandemic compared to the last quarter going into it. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. I meant compare the growth (or reduction) of gdp on the 4th quarter of 2021 to that of Q 4 2019. 
so, is surlystan had an economy of 1 billion Amero’s in Q 4 2019 and 1.2 billion Amero’s in q4 2021, it’s growth rate from the 1 quarter to the next would be 20%. 
This would capture the picture of where we are in the first quarter out of the pandemic compared to the last quarter going into it. 

2019 figures:

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/qgdpstate0420.pdf

 

2021 figures:

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/qgdpstate0322.pdf

 

keep in mind that the % on the maps are in real (constant) dollars, while the figures in the table are in nominal (current) dollars. 

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1 minute ago, elfenix said:

california's population clock is not ticking backward. 

I tend to agree. It shrunk slightly in 2021 vs 2020, but my bet is that is ultimately a hiccup. I expect it to be a relatively slow growth state, but it isn't going the way of the rust belt. It will be decades before Texas catches it, and that's assuming Texas continues to grow like wildfire as it transitions into a true HCOL population center, which is not a given.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, elfenix said:

2019 figures:

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/qgdpstate0420.pdf

 

2021 figures:

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/qgdpstate0322.pdf

 

keep in mind that the % on the maps are in real (constant) dollars, while the figures in the table are in nominal (current) dollars. 

So page 8 is what I want. The actual figures, but for 2019 Q4 and 2021 Q4. I was probably explaining it shitily but that would take out the noise of how much current growth is being gained merely by comparing it to unrealistic lows created by the pandemic. What @gmr548was alluding to, basically. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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10 minutes ago, elfenix said:

california's population clock is not ticking backward. 

It has during the pandemic. It has also been going backwards in a relative sense for the first time ever even before the pandemic, as evidenced by dropping an EC vote. 
What I’ve read in analysis pieces but not seen actual data on is that if you compare net internal migration it’s going backwards, but being propped up in absolute sense where numbers go up slightly (but not as fast as other places in the country) by growth in birth/death and international migration. Which we see in basically every state in the country. 

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It has during the pandemic. It has also been going backwards in a relative sense for the first time ever even before the pandemic, as evidenced by dropping an EC vote. 
What I’ve read in analysis pieces but not seen actual data on is that if you compare net internal migration it’s going backwards, but being propped up in absolute sense where numbers go up slightly (but not as fast as other places in the country) by growth in birth/death and international migration. Which we see in basically every state in the country. 

Eh, to say it's going backwards relatively is a bit misleading. It lost the EC vote, but it's population growth rate was firmly middle of the pack and it is still the third highest population per EC vote. Only two states, TX and FL, added more people, and FL only outpaced it by 500k or so. FL just achieved the milestone of being half the size of CA and even if California remained totally stagnant, Florida would not catch it at its current 14.6% growth rate until 2065 or so. Those three states blew every other state out of the water (and TX significantly outpaced the other two) in terms of population growth 2010-2020, CA just doesn't have the gaudy headline percentage because it's already so much bigger than every other state.

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7 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

How much of the "shedding people" is a handful of mouthy people on Twitter or other social media vs. a real, measurable and material number of people leaving?  Seems like mostly the former, tbh.

California is definitely shedding people...unfortunately it's mainly the poors and middle class who head south and east to buy a home.

 

I think Texas did beat California in Q4 21

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6 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah I've been very interested in how the pandemic/work-from-anywhere thing would re-shape the workforce (and possibly the country) in the coming years.

I'm especially interested living in a mid-sized city like Tulsa that has lost tons of great workers to Houston over the years because that's where most of the great energy jobs were.

I work for a large Fortune 500 energy company that is based here, but we have a huge office in Houston also, and the past 6 months have been pretty interesting, in terms of how they are filling jobs. Nothing is formalized yet, but almost every job posted now is flexible on location.  And we just announced that our flexible work policy, where you can basically work from home 3 days/week is permanent.

Also, a good friend of mine who left Tulsa for St. Louis several years ago for a big-time PR job is now moving back because her firm is letting her work from home 100% of the time.

These are also anecdotal examples, but it seems like this whole thing could be good for a place like Tulsa, with a good workforce and a relatively low cost of living, not crowded, no traffic, etc.

Last I checked Tulsa was trying to pay people to move there.  

 

 

Oh and Utah is on fire.  It is stealing a lot of tech business from Denver.

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6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I tend to agree. It shrunk slightly in 2021 vs 2020, but my bet is that is ultimately a hiccup. I expect it to be a relatively slow growth state, but it isn't going the way of the rust belt. It will be decades before Texas catches it, and that's assuming Texas continues to grow like wildfire as it transitions into a true HCOL population center, which is not a given.

Maybe not in most of our lifetimes.  And, if people leave, maybe the COL will drop and people will move to CA?  Right now, the population is dropping but it's still expensive.

 

I was shocked that it's GDP showed any growth.  I think if CA was a stand alone nation it would be 5th in world GDP. 

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17 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So page 8 is what I want. The actual figures, but for 2019 Q4 and 2021 Q4. I was probably explaining it shitily but that would take out the noise of how much current growth is being gained merely by comparing it to unrealistic lows created by the pandemic. What @gmr548was alluding to, basically. 

Here, I did the math for you.

image.thumb.png.396b38baa5df9299e5e8f69117f63728.png

image.thumb.png.581e3ca9c8a209ee305736def65ce212.png

The above shows a comparison in the percentage change of the total GDP in today's dollars for all industry sectors in California and Texas from q4-2019 tp q4-2021. This includes the entirety of the pandemic.

https://apps.bea.gov/itable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&acrdn=1

Data notes:

  1. This does not indicate GDP per capita nor components of population change, which is composed of migration (net international + domestic migration) plus natural change (births - deaths). It is simply an indicator of the size of the overall economy, regardless of how many people live in each state.
  2. From what I recall (please don't make me look it up), California has experienced stagnant population growth during the same period due to having a net negative domestic migration rate. This would indicate that their GDP per capita has increased at an even greater rate than Texas.
  3. Theoretically, this would mean that Californians are becoming richer faster than Texans, but the data do not account for the distribution of new wealth.
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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Here, I did the math for you.

image.thumb.png.396b38baa5df9299e5e8f69117f63728.png

image.thumb.png.581e3ca9c8a209ee305736def65ce212.png

The above shows a comparison in the percentage change of the total GDP in today's dollars for all industry sectors in California and Texas from q4-2019 tp q4-2021. This includes the entirety of the pandemic.

https://apps.bea.gov/itable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&acrdn=1

Data notes:

  1. This does not indicate GDP per capita nor components of population change, which is composed of migration (net international + domestic migration) plus natural change (births - deaths). It is simply an indicator of the size of the overall economy, regardless of how many people live in each state.
  2. From what I recall (please don't make me look it up), California has experienced stagnant population growth during the same period due to having a net negative domestic migration rate. This would indicate that their GDP per capita has increased at an even greater rate than Texas.
  3. Theoretically, this would mean that Californians are becoming richer faster than Texans, but the data do not account for the distribution of new wealth.

Not my work, but it would look like this:

 

Spoiler

$233,500 - District of Columbia

$96,502 - New York
$95,029 - Massachusetts
$90,034 - Washington
$89,540 - California
$85,647 - North Dakota
$85,609 - Connecticut
$83,922 - Delaware
$79,139 - Alaska
$78,500 - Nebraska
$76,825 - Illinois

$76,577 - Wyoming
$75,860 - Colorado
$75,549 - New Jersey
$75,234 - Minnesota
$73,751 - New Hampshire
$73,313 - Maryland
$71,274 - Texas
$71,133 - Virginia
$70,683 - Iowa
$70,148 - South Dakota

$69,007 - Utah
$67,570 - Kansas
$67,485 - Pennsylvania
$66,109 - Georgia
$65,806 - Oregon
$65,857 - Hawaii
$64,983 - Nevada
$64,941 - Ohio
$64,885 - North Carolina
$64,436 - Wisconsin

$64,357 - Indiana
$62,944 - Tennessee
$62,817 - Rhode Island
$60,489 - Missouri
$59,071 - Arizona
$59,046 - Florida
$58,935 - Michigan
$58,311 - Vermont
$57,769 - Louisiana
$57,699 - Maine

$56,130 - Montana
$54,824 - Oklahoma
$54,280 - South Carolina
$54,216 - Kentucky
$54,200 - New Mexico
$51,793 - Idaho
$51,573 - West Virginia
$51,086 - Alabama
$49,732 - Arkansas
$44,060 - Mississippi

Looks like California would be in top 5 of per capita at 89,540.  Texas is 71,274.  Top 1/3.

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16 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Last I checked Tulsa was trying to pay people to move there.  

Yeah that was one limited program from a philanthropic program designed to bring specific workers here.  It didn't have any material impact and I don't even think it's a thing any more. 

The Tulsa MSA exceeded 1 million in the 2020 census for an 8%+ population growth from 2010.  No, that's not explosive population growth compared with booming Texas cities, but it's good for a mid-sized market like Tulsa that isn't a state capitol (no gov't business) and also doesn't have any kind of military industrial complex cushion to provide a backstop like OKC does. It's purely organic growth of business and industry here.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/14/2022 at 3:56 PM, elfenix said:

2021 4Q is in the OP.  i gave you the 2019 4Q.  now you have both and can compare.  is that not what you wanted?

EDIT:  Bolverk took care of the question that was actually being asked  

Edited by Trey3216
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