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Texas Rangers 2023 - They're Still Shitty?


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Newberg with trade scenarios in The Athletic.

Spoiler
The baton has been passed again. Chris Young and the Rangers’ front office exploded off the blocks this winter, revamping the starting rotation and hiring Bruce Bochy to manage the club. The players took it from there and have led the division from the jump. Now Young and his group are taking their turn again, as the frenzy of trade season launches. They helped usher in the festivities with a deal to improve the bullpen on Friday, sending left-hander Cole Ragans and 17-year-old Dominican Summer League outfielder Roni Cabrera to the Royals for veteran power reliever Aroldis Chapman. But the Rangers are not done.
Clubs tend to put self-assessment off until close to the All-Star Break; late enough to trust the standings, early enough to work through the process before the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Since 2021, the amateur draft has also been conducted over the break. When the draft ends, front offices can fully turn their attention to the trade market.
For the first time in seven years, the Rangers are sending their pro scouts to other major-league ballparks rather than farm affiliates. After years of trying to get buyers interested in the veteran players who didn’t fit squarely into their long-term plans, they are now the buyers, with two positives working in their favor: they have a deep farm system to tempt sellers with, and they have clearly defined needs heading into the second half and what they hope is more baseball after that.
That’s assuming there are no further major injuries like the one that shut Jacob deGrom down for the year. Still, if a need were to arise in the lineup, finding short-term fixes in July is generally affordable; the Braves made deals for Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall at the deadline in 2021 without giving up anything of note.
But that’s not where the Rangers’ focus will be. Though as Jim Bowden noted a few weeks ago, the team’s most glaring need has been to add stability to the back of their bullpen and they’ll be looking into opportunities beyond the Chapman addition, though the rotation has shown some vulnerability as well. Nathan Eovaldi’s velocity is slightly down (an issue he also had midway through 2022), Jon Gray missed a June turn with a blister, and both Andrew Heaney and Martín Pérez have had stretches in which their command has wobbled.
The profile for the pitching targets could differ, however. Paying a premium for a controllable starter would do more than just fortify the 2023 run. DeGrom will miss most if not all of 2024. Pérez will be a free agent this winter, and Heaney might, too, if he opts out of the second year of his two-year deal (though his 2024 salary would jump from $13 million to $20 million if he reaches 150 innings this year – he’s on pace now to beat it by 10 innings). The chance to add a pitcher who would fit in the rotation past 2023 would be enticing. As mercurial as relief pitchers are, on the other hand, Texas might find rentals who would be back on the market after the season to be worth the smaller cost in prospects.
Let’s give this a shot. We’ll spitball two different trades for bullpen help, one bigger than the other. Then two other deals (again, one big, one less so) that would each bring the Rangers both a starting pitcher and a couple relievers. And finally, a proposed blockbuster – a trade so mind-blowing that both teams would surely have to talk themselves into it … and ultimately would probably both walk away.

Bullpen deals

Texas acquires RHP David Bednar and RHP Dauri Moreta from the Pirates for RHP Grant Anderson, RHP Tekoah Roby and OF-1B Marcos Torres
Just a few weeks ago, this one would have never generated a phone call. The Pirates were leading the mediocre NL Central on June 12, heading into a pair of series against the disappointing Cubs sandwiched around a trip to Milwaukee. Pittsburgh proceeded to lose all nine games, plus the next one in Miami to run its losing streak to 10. The Pirates are probably preparing to sell.
Bednar, Pittsburgh’s closer the last two years, has been spectacular in 2023, holding opponents to a .207 batting average and .514 OPS and 37 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings. He’s allowed only one home run (courtesy of Josh Jung), saved 16 games in 17 chances, and would allow the Rangers to move Will Smith into a left-right set-up tandem with Josh Sborz. Bednar, 28, is under team control through 2026 – fewer years than Moreta, a slider machine who can’t take free agency until after 2028. The 27-year-old, working mostly in the sixth and seventh innings for the Pirates, has struck out 46 in 35 innings. Batters are hitting .183 against him.
The Pirates, if they make Bednar available, will be able to stage a bidding war. Relievers have relatively dampened value – at the 2022 deadline, a year and a half of Josh Hader, the game’s best reliever, fetched the Brewers struggling relievers Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet plus prospects ranked at the time as San Diego’s eighth and ninth best – but there’s not a contending team that couldn’t use Bednar. Anderson’s emergence in June has quickly earned him a feature role in the Texas bullpen and the Rangers are not exactly in a position to reduce the winning pieces of their relief corps, but with six years of control after 2023, the Pirates would be attracted and the Rangers probably wouldn’t let that be a deal-breaker. Adding a frontline starting pitcher prospect like Roby might at least make Texas a finalist in the Bednar sweepstakes.
There are rumors that the Rangers are also interested in adding 36-year-old Andrew McCutchen, who is having a resurgent season in his return to the Pirates as a DH – an apparent upgrade over Robbie Grossman in that role. Expanding the above deal to include McCutchen could conceivably cost Texas a prospect like infielder Thomas Saggese, though the Rangers might prefer to include first baseman Blaine Crim.
Texas acquires RHP Scott Barlow from the Royals for RHP Alex Speas and RHP Aidan Curry
Before Texas made the move for Chapman, I’d actually cooked up a deal that would have netted the Rangers three Royals relievers: Chapman, Barlow and Josh Staumont. But the Rangers aren’t done adding to the bullpen – and there’s no reason they need to be done with the Royals, who surely discussed other Rangers prospects before settling on Ragans and Cabrera for Chapman. Kansas City likely plans to take its time exploring the market for Barlow, an established closer with an added year of control past this season, but the Rangers could have enough interest to offer a stronger package than it took to get Chapman.
Speas is a fascinating case. Just promoted to Triple-A after dominating Double-A hitters (.133 opponents’ batting average, 47 strikeouts and 13 walks in 28 1/3 innings) with triple-digit velocity and a wipeout slider, the 25-year-old can be a minor-league free agent this winter if not on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that he will get a major-league look this summer for both reasons, and Kansas City might view him as an upside play worth converting their short-term relievers into.
The 20-year-old Curry has elevated his prospect status as much as any pitcher in the Rangers system this year. A free agent who signed out of high school following the five-round draft in 2020, he was fairly well off the radar coming into the season (I had him ranked No. 68 in the Rangers system this winter), but after two months of Low-A domination, he has rocketed to No. 21 on Baseball America’s midseason team ranking. The Rangers will be reluctant to move Curry but it will take a prospect of his caliber to separate from the pack. Barlow is going to be a popular target this month.
Other options: (1) Texas acquires RHP Alex Lange and RHP Jason Foley from the Tigers for C Sam Huff, RHP Marc Church and RHP Jose Corniell; or (2) Texas acquires RHP Hunter Harvey and RHP Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals for RHP Dane Acker, OF Tommy Specht and RHP Yerry Rodríguez

Starter and reliever deals

Texas acquires RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Kendall Graveman and RHP Joe Kelly from the White Sox for RHP Owen White, RHP Glenn Otto, IF Justin Foscue and OF Bubba Thompson
The White Sox are expected to push trades featuring starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn, both of whom will be free agents this winter (once Lynn’s $18 million club option is bought out for $1 million), but adding Cease — who is under team control through 2025 — would interest the Rangers far more. And it will cost exponentially more to get a Cease deal done. The Rangers would have to be willing to trade White, their top pitching prospect, to stay in the discussion, and that would just be a start.
The White Sox are an aging team with a weak farm system. Trading Giolito will bring something in return but it will take flipping Cease or Michael Kopech (or, far less likely, outfielder Luis Robert Jr.) to jumpstart a rebuild. The Rangers could conceivably offer to supplement White with High-A lefty Mitch Bratt and Triple-A infielder Davis Wendzel, but Chicago would want more certainty and upside.
Rather than Bratt, the White Sox might ask for a more immediate asset in Otto, who has rejoined the Rangers after three Triple-A rehab outings. Losing him would cut into the Rangers’ short-term depth more than they’d like, especially after parting with Ragans in the Chapman trade. But bringing Cease aboard would also allow them to move either Dunning or Heaney to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. And in place of Wendzel, the White Sox would probably want shortstop (and center fielder?) Luisangel Acuña. Texas could counter with Foscue, whose plate approach has improved significantly without compromising his power profile.
But even if the Rangers were able to convince Chicago to take Foscue rather than Acuña, they likely wouldn’t be comfortable parting with three of their top prospects for Cease alone. They would want more. And the White Sox are in a position to accommodate that. They have three free-agents-to-be pitching reasonably well in relief — Kelly, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton — and they could conceivably offer the Rangers their choice of two of them without much heartburn. But Texas would prefer Graveman, who is under contract through 2024. That’s something Chicago could be open to, given the rebuild plan it is entering, but would likely want an upside play like 18-year-old outfielder Anthony Gutierrez tacked on — and perhaps would offer to pay down some of the $8 million Graveman is set to earn in 2024. The Rangers won’t want to part with Gutierrez and could offer to include Thompson as a sweetener without any cash coming back from Chicago.
With the deal, the Rangers rotation would be headed by Eovaldi, Gray and Cease — all three controllable through 2025 (when Eovaldi has a vesting option), when deGrom should be back for a full season — with one of Heaney, Pérez and Dunning joining Graveman and Kelly as additions to the bullpen in the meantime.
But unless Texas were willing to insert Acuña in place of Foscue, the White Sox might be inclined to turn elsewhere.
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Kyle Hendricks. (Jeff Chiu / AP Photo)
Texas acquires RHP Kyle Hendricks, RHP Adbert Alzolay and RHP Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs for LHP Brock Burke, OF-1B Dustin Harris, RHP Winston Santos and SS Maximo Acosta
Bowden suggests the Cubs are looking for a left-handed bat and relief help, and the Rangers approach them with both: Dustin Harris, a .292 career hitter who was promoted to Triple-A in late June, and big-league lefty Brock Burke, who has fallen out of regular use for some reason and has three-plus years of control left. Chicago isn’t interested in discussing Marcus Stroman — and neither is Texas at the price it would take, since Stroman will surely opt out of his contract after this season — but dangles veteran starters Hendricks (who has a $16 million club option for 2024) and Drew Smyly (who can opt out after this season), each a former Ranger.
The Rangers could be interested in Hendricks, whom they once traded away in a deal that haunted them for years, but to part with Harris in particular, they won’t be interested in a starter who wouldn’t project to fit the playoff rotation and would likely be cut loose after the season. Chicago has several controllable relievers who would deepen the Texas bullpen, headed by Alzolay, who has settled into the closer’s role in the midst of an exceptional season.
Given the state of their season and the cycle the franchise is in, the Cubs would likely be open to adding to Hendricks to get Harris and Burke. But it’s doubtful they were planning to listen on Alzolay, preferring to shop Leiter — cousin to Texas’ Jack Leiter — and Julian Merryweather, veteran middle relievers who are controllable through 2026. With trades for Cease, or even Bednar or Scott Barlow, the frontline Texas target would be under contract past 2023. Not the case with Hendricks or Smyly, and so Young likely feels he has the leverage to hold firm on Alzolay. The White Sox could take the Rangers’ stance as an opportunity to further stock their thin farm system and ask the Rangers for two High-A prospects, Santos and Acosta.
The Rangers value the pitcher and shortstop but both will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter and unlikely to claim roster spots. Burke is obviously already on the roster, and for that matter, Harris is as well. Moving all four would clear up some potential roster issues, but to add both Santos and Acosta to the trade, the Rangers could insist on Leiter as a bullpen tack-on to Alzolay.
Other options: (1) Texas acquires LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Giovanny Gallegos and RHP Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals for LHP Mitch Bratt, RHP Cole Winn, 3B Gleider Figuereo and IF Cam Cauley; or (2) Texas acquires LHP J.P. Sears, RHP Trevor May and LHP Sam Moll from the A’s for LHP Cody Bradford, IF-OF Jonathan Ornelas, IF Davis Wendzel and OF-1B Trevor Hauver

The Blockbuster

Texas acquires RHP-DH Shohei Ohtani from the Angels for OF-IF Ezequiel Durán and RHP Jack Leiter
Several things would have to happen for this conversation to even get started, not the least of which is the Angels going on a skid over the next couple weeks to take them out of the challenging spot they’re now in: Six games back in the AL West but fifth in a group of five teams all within 2.0 games of the three wild-card spots. If they were in the Rangers’ position, the Angels would unquestionably be looking to add to Ohtani in pursuit of their first playoff berth since 2014. If they were well out of the race, the business decision would be clear: see what kind of haul you can get for Ohtani before he leaves you with nothing but a compensatory draft pick in the winter.
But in between, like Los Angeles is now? It would be disastrous for it to even make the Twitter rounds that GM Perry Minasian was shopping Ohtani, an obvious message to the players that the front office didn’t believe in them. So there’s not even traction to the idea that teams can get Minasian to so much as tell them what it would take to pry Ohtani free. The Angels are in a tough spot.
Floating the hypothetical that the Angels spiral out of contention in July – and adding the condition that Ohtani’s representatives won’t discuss a contract extension before he hits free agency – I recently polled the masses on the concept of the Rangers sending Durán and Leiter to the Angels for three months of Ohtani. The results of the poll were remarkably close.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Hypothetical: Angels go on a July skid, trail 5 teams in the wild card. Team takes calls on Shohei. They know they can get the 1st rounder when he leaves but PR-wise, they need to do better. They ask for Duran and Leiter — and (important) CAA won’t talk extension. You in?
 
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I never offered my own take, which is this: Neither team is comfortable with the deal. Los Angeles believes (probably correctly) that it can get more for the once-in-several-generations talent, even as a rental. As much as Ohtani (who has a .929 OPS at Globe Life Field) would help the Rangers on the mound and at the plate, there’s no guarantee that it would result in a championship, and going into 2024 and beyond without Ohtani, Durán and Leiter — with at least the latter two in the division — would be a major setback for the club just as its window is opening.
There’s risk with every one of these mock trades. But nothing like the last one, which I’d expect neither team would have the stomach for. The Rangers are far more likely focused on separating themselves further from the Angels than on trying to work together with their division rivals on a deal. And that focus is about to pick up considerable steam.

 

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Well..... Fuck. Told the wife I was leaving work at three and probably stop at a local bar and watch the end.

Me: I guess I don't need to go and watch the end of the game.

Her : Are you coming straight home?

Me : No, I still want the alcohol, just not the game....

  • Hook 'Em 1
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