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16 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If Iranian military begins killing civilians, I think we should consider many options from arming civilians to eliminating military targets to trying to distract the Iranian military with joint operations with other countries.

Elon probably gutted the part of the government that could have flooded that place with weapons, radios, whatever.

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38 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If Iranian military begins killing civilians, I think we should consider many options from arming civilians to eliminating military targets to trying to distract the Iranian military with joint operations with other countries.

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Yeah, well I remember celebrating the end of the Rick Perry governorship. “Thank God we’re rid of that Aggie and his cronyism and attacks on The University. Finally a by God Longhorn and a return to normalcy.”

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Regardless, thanks for the updates @Macklemore. I’m certainly supportive of anything that gives moves us closer to a normal relationship so my kids can see the home of their grandparents.

One of the tweets @Macklemore posted had this bit:

When you talk to people, the majority say that this time there's really no room to retreat because if the regime survives this stage, they'll commit a massacre beyond anything ever seen before. Gen Z and Gen Alpha have raised hell on the regime. They're so brave it's unbelievable. Field leadership is practically in their hands, but there are plenty of middle-aged and elderly people seen in the crowd. All kinds of people are on the streets. Employees, merchants, factory owners, workers, students, retirees, everyone."

Agreed that if they retreat, the regime will hunt down anybody and everybody and kill them rather than risking this again.

Also " Gen Z and Gen Alpha have raised hell on the regime.....Field leadership is practically in their hands, but there are plenty of middle-aged and elderly people seen in the crowd. "

Does this mean Gen Xers are the middle-aged and elderly?

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30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Does this mean Gen Xers are the middle-aged and elderly?

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If the sound my knees make every morning is an indication...

from the Telegraph

More than 500 dead as bodies pile up in Iran’s protest crackdown

Death toll surges signals escalation in regime’s violence towards civilian protests

Iran protests

The scene outside the coroner’s office in Tehran, where relatives were being asked to identify bodies laid on the roadside Credit: Vahid Online

Henry Bodkin in Jerusalem

11 January 2026 6:49pm GMT

More than 500 people have been killed in Iran, a rights group said on Sunday, signalling a dramatic escalation in regime violence against the growing protest movement.

The surging death toll follows a significant crackdown over the past three days, with reports of soldiers shutting down entire towns and a new close-range shoot-to-kill policy.

Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA), a US-based group, said it had verified the deaths of 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, with more than 10,600 people arrested. The Telegraph was unable to verify the figures independently.

It puts the series of protests, now entering their third week, on course to be the bloodiest since 2019.

Because of suppression of the media and Iran’s internet blackout, the figure is likely to be an underestimate, as anecdotal reports come in of hospitals overwhelmed with seriously wounded protesters shot by regime forces.

Footage emerged on Sunday showing dozens of body bags dumped on the roads outside the coroner’s office in Tehran. People were forced to identify their relatives outside, while others crowded around government screens showing the bloodied faces of those killed.

The video was allegedly taken on Thursday, before the regime ordered a harsher crackdown on demonstrators, indicating the death toll was already significant.

Doctors reported an increasing trend of protesters being shot in the head and neck, often at close range.

The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights said on Sunday that unverified reports suggested more than 2,000 people may have been killed.

It denounced the regime’s sweeping crackdown as a “mass killing” and a “major international crime against the people of Iran”.

Donald Trump has threatened to “get involved” in the unrest, warning that he would hit Iran “very, very hard, where it hurts” if the regime’s forces continued killing protesters.

The US president is said to be contemplating military action and has been presented with a range of targets, including elements of Iran’s security apparatus responsible for the bloody crackdown.

However, US commanders in the region have told officials that they need to “consolidate US military positions and prepare defences” before carrying out any strikes that could trigger retaliation.

The protests, initially triggered by rampant inflation, are thought to have spread to more than 100 cities and towns across all of Iran’s provinces. Protesters are now openly calling for an end to the clerical rule of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

The uprising is more intense and widespread than the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” protests, when at least 551 people were killed, according to HRANA.

In November 2019, between 1,000 and 1,500 protesters were killed in widespread demonstrations that were triggered by a sudden increase in the fuel price.

The group’s updated death toll, published on Sunday afternoon, was more than double its previous figure issued on Saturday.

Footage emerged on Sunday morning purporting to show live ammunition being used against protesters in the town of Abyek, north-west of Tehran.

Iran protests

Distraught Iranians outside the medical centre in Iran. Such images have emerged from the country despite the regime’s near-blackout of the internet  Credit: Vahid Online

BBC Persia reported that large numbers of heavily armed soldiers had flooded towns such as Lushan and Chalus, smothering the ability to protest.

Senior regime officials have now suggested that protesters should face the death penalty.

Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, distinguished between protests over economic hardship – which he called “completely understandable” – and “riots”, accusing the latter of using methods “very similar to terrorist groups”.

On Saturday night, thousands of people took to the streets despite the threat of security forces opening fire.

Videos show large crowds in several cities, including Tehran and Mashhad in the east, where vehicles were set ablaze. The footage emerged despite a near-total internet shutdown, which has rendered communication with the outside world largely impossible.

The blackout “is now past the 60-hour mark... The censorship measure presents a direct threat to the safety and wellbeing of Iranians at a key moment for the country’s future”, the monitoring group NetBlocks said early on Sunday.

Ahmad-Reza Radan, the national police chief, said authorities made “significant” arrests on Saturday night, without giving details.

On Sunday, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, warned the White House against a “miscalculation”.

If Iran is attacked, he said Israel and all US bases and ships “will be our legitimate targets”.

Two American C-17A military transport planes departed Germany and appeared to be heading for the Middle East on Saturday evening, as speculation mounted about a potential strike.

The New York Times quoted US officials as saying that any military action would need to be carefully weighed to avoid galvanising public support for the regime. Israel’s military is reportedly on high alert in the event of a US strike.

Kemi Badenoch suggested on Sunday that she could support Western military intervention to help the protesters against Iran’s leaders.

In an interview with the BBC, the Tory leader said: “Iran would very happily wipe out the UK if it thought it could get away with it. It’s tried to kill people on our soil, it is an enemy … I don’t have an issue with removing a regime that is trying to harm us.”

Asked about the possibility of a Western intervention, she said the situation was hypothetical but “the calculation always has to be about our national interest”.

Sure donald, that's the solution. Send in the troops, kill half the population, then brag about how the violence is down by 50%. It works in the U.S.

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump says Iran “wants to negotiate”.

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Iran wants to do the same Rope-A-Dope that Putin does with Trump to delay any possible US military action.

This is amazing watching the possibility of Iran's regime toppling. There's a good chance they can survive this, but it's also a puncher's chance of happening and that would be amazing for everyone.

Everyone keeps saying we need to "help" the Iranian people, but how exactly?

Yes, land-based flights in the region could be used to put pressure on the Iranian regime, but it isn't without severe risk to US interests and assets. The problem right now it is our inability for force projection with 3 carrier groups tied up in the Pacific (Taiwan/South China Sea) and the Ford covering the Atlantic/Caribbean. That means there is no CSG in the Persian Gulf at the time. The 3 others are in port for refit/restock/shore rotation. Part of this is due to the final deployment for decommissioning by the Nimitz and the delayed deployment of the newest Carrier till supposedly Oct(?).

It would take a week to 10 days to get a carrier group close enough to be a legitimate counterthreat.

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Don't forget that even though Iran is in a weakened state, they could decide to go all out and swamp the patriot systems with their Ballistic missiles. I doubt they would go after CENTCOM in Al Udeid in Qatar, but Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq would all be vulnerable to being hammered by overwhelming ICBM attacks.

5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone keeps saying we need to "help" the Iranian people, but how exactly?

Yes, land-based flights in the region could be used to put pressure on the Iranian regime, but it isn't without severe risk to US interests and assets. The problem right now it is our inability for force projection with 3 carrier groups tied up in the Pacific (Taiwan/South China Sea) and the Ford covering the Atlantic/Caribbean. That means there is no CSG in the Persian Gulf at the time. The 3 others are in port for refit/restock/shore rotation. Part of this is due to the final deployment for decommissioning by the Nimitz and the delayed deployment of the newest Carrier till supposedly Oct(?).

It would take a week to 10 days to get a carrier group close enough to be a legitimate counterthreat.

FT_1_5_25-720x480.jpg

Don't forget that even though Iran is in a weakened state, they could decide to go all out and swamp the patriot systems with their Ballistic missiles. I doubt they would go after CENTCOM in Al Udeid in Qatar, but Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq would all be vulnerable to being hammered by overwhelming ICBM attacks.

Aircraft carriers are really only for flight ops. You can do plenty of other stuff without them.

Edited by Schulz2.0

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7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone keeps saying we need to "help" the Iranian people, but how exactly?

Yes, land-based flights in the region could be used to put pressure on the Iranian regime, but it isn't without severe risk to US interests and assets. The problem right now it is our inability for force projection with 3 carrier groups tied up in the Pacific (Taiwan/South China Sea) and the Ford covering the Atlantic/Caribbean. That means there is no CSG in the Persian Gulf at the time. The 3 others are in port for refit/restock/shore rotation. Part of this is due to the final deployment for decommissioning by the Nimitz and the delayed deployment of the newest Carrier till supposedly Oct(?).

It would take a week to 10 days to get a carrier group close enough to be a legitimate counterthreat.

FT_1_5_25-720x480.jpg

Don't forget that even though Iran is in a weakened state, they could decide to go all out and swamp the patriot systems with their Ballistic missiles. I doubt they would go after CENTCOM in Al Udeid in Qatar, but Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq would all be vulnerable to being hammered by overwhelming ICBM attacks.

We don't need the ME's oil. Heck with them. If they wanna blow it all up, we won't stop them.

Or am I wrong?

23 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone keeps saying we need to "help" the Iranian people, but how exactly?

I would have truckloads of cheap, satellite capable cell phone at least available across the border with Iraq.

The next part is trickier because the mullah's suck at making friends abroad, but maybe there's a way to have the Azerbaijanis approach them diplomatically with a promise of safe harbor for anyone senior in the Islamic Republic that wants to leave, an apartment for their family. The top level has so much money they are mostly immune to this (they all have apartments in London/Paris/Moscow to escape to as needed), but we want to hollow out the level below, the bureaucracy, moreover let's move them where we can monitor them easily and bring them back to help restore basic governance functions under new management.

Something else we could be doing is to have back channel communications with the Artesh that we'll support them (moreover, that they'll have jobs and money IMMEDIATELY) if they with withhold support for the Islamist revolutionary forces/government.

Finally, I'd ask the Israelis if it's possible (if we don't possess the know-how) to disrupt the Islamic Republic's own communication infrastructure (you'll note that communication is a huge part of this).

I'm picking on @Macklemore a little bit here, but a lot of American-Persians seem to overlook the fact that 40% of the country isn't Persian, isn't looking at the Shah's return as a return to greatness, lives fairly remotely and doesn't have a high level of education. As the Persians have soured on the regime over the last 20 years, these have sort of become the backbone of the Islamist support and contribute a lot of the recruits (note these people might self-identify as Persian, but truly that's probably third of fourth down the list of their identity characteristics, with tribe #1 or #2). These are the true believers, not necessarily in the religious message of the revolution, but certainly in the evolving shadow state elements that the IRGC has taken on with their commercial activities. In other words, they've made a lot of money in the last 20 years, are utterly beholden to the status quo for that continuing, aren't as cheap to buy off as the military (too big, too dispersed, and our intelligence on specific elements is shitty*), and it's in the US interest in making sure they can't talk to each other easily.

*fwiw, I listened to the "FDD's Foreign Policy" podcast yesterday while on the hunt for any useful commentary on what's going on over there, and the guest was former CIA deputy director for Iran Norman Roule, It was an hour with some small, somewhat useful insights on the overall state (recorded in December and clearly didn't predict the current protests), and it might have been that Roule was reluctant to be overly detailed out of habit, but my main takeaway is that our intel in Iran is pretty crappy. This dude, by resume, should be one of the foremost US subject matter experts on Iran and he didn't appear to have any deeper knowledge than a 10,000 foot view of the world.

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Aircraft carriers are really only for flight ops. You can fo plenty of other stuff without them.

Iran is in the "worst" spot geographically from a risk assessment standpoint, as we are heavily built up on the western edge of the Persian Gulf and within spitting distance of Iran. Any "support" from Israel would be coming a long way from the west. Unless they are planning to fight Iran in a rehash of the last conflict, where Israel spent days hunting ICBM launchers to minimize their own damage, the bases on the coast are going to be overwhelmed. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states will protect their own airspace (and might eventually be retaliatory), but this would be more of Iran lashing out to inflict the most possible damage to the US in revenge, knowing that their regime is dying anyway. The much shorter flight time combined with easier targeting and those bases will be reduced to rubble, and the loss of life will be extreme.

At least with a CSG in the Gulf, you could have enough Tomahawk deterrents to threaten the leadership with destruction if they became too trigger-happy with an over the top reaction, but our land-based aircraft are not a sufficient deterrent to really publicly tip the scales without accepting the fact that it will cost many American and our allies' lives.

INTERACTIVE-US Military presence in the Middle East June 2025 poster-1749733449

There are things we could do in theater, but it won't be as loud or public as many want. The only way that happens in the short term is if the Gulf nations all decide to be involved and overwhelm Iran for the stability of the region. There is always the covert or cyber options, but my guess it will be weeks to see anything substantive from the US.


Let's make no mistakes about it, I am all for the fall of the Iranian regime, but I don't see how we can become directly involved militarily right now with how the pieces are on the chessboard.

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We don't need the ME's oil. Heck with them. If they wanna blow it all up, we won't stop them.

Or am I wrong?

Toppling the Iranian regime would do wonders globally. They sponsor more radicals and terrorists than anywhere else in the globe by a wide margin. Toppling Khomeini and having a government that is pro-democracy would instantly make the region more stable. Lots of regional "headaches" would stop in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza as not only the funding disappears, but so does the access to Russian-made or cloned weapons via Iran. With no money to pay the revolutionaries and no weapons to fight with, these warring tribes will fade into the background.

As far as oil diplomacy goes, this would open up Iranian oil exports as "legitimate, with the US helping guide where those exports go. That would undoubtedly hurt both China and India (as they cannot buy black market Iranian crude for cheap), all the while providing another counter to Russia's oil exports in the region. China would be in a real crunch as it imports most of its oil from Russia (at a discount), then Saudi Arabia (at market rate), and then Venezuela/Iran (at an extreme discount).

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