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2023-24 Houston Rockets Thread - Climbing out of the Gutter?


BigOrange1

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26 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So best case scenario, Rockets will have two Top 4 picks? 

There’s a 1.44% chance of that, so light your candles!

Most likely scenario is they only get the Nets pick, and it will be #9 (or #8 if ATL or Chicago advance).

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in case you missed it, or better yet if Boban missed it -- 

nice gesture from a very nice guy BUT clock had 4:44 left in game and we only up 105-97 on the road. Could have cost the game and a chance at 0.500.  Not sure if the wisest decision but still won. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/look-rockets-boban-marjanovic-purposefully-misses-free-throw-to-earn-fans-free-chicken-sandwiches/?fbclid=IwAR3lXWq5mYFkdFpLN95ZkS9w1Np_FmtqhR2kDw4DNJmGV1hSloOqlPXpKrE

The Clippers have a promotion in which all fans receive a free Chick-fil-A sandwich if an opposing player misses two consecutive free throws in the fourth quarter. After missing his first free throw, Marjanovic obliged by missing the second throw after clearly being aware of the promotion.

Marjanovic even pointed to the crowd in celebration after bricking the second free throw.

Marjanovic, who played for the Clippers from 2018 to 2019, clearly had a soft spot for the crowd. He acknowledged that he was aware of the promotion, and was happy to award the crowd some free chicken sandwiches.

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3 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I’m pulling numbers off Tankathon, which is usually pretty accurate. NBA assigns teams a number of different number combinations based on how many losses they have. Houston owns the number combinations for their pick (until that combo is not in the top 4) and the number combinations for the Nets. So yes, the odds of #1 or a top 4 pick between the two are additive. If you want to get into the odds which one is top 4 and which one isn’t, you need to do some factorials. 

They are additive for each drawing between the Rockets/Nets picks, so 6% chance of getting pick #1 in this chart. Then you have 6.5% for #2, 7.1% for #3 and 7.8% for #4. If you want to add all those together, then you have to divide it by 400, not 100, because it's 4 drawings. Nets have a 5.05% chance of top 4, Rockets pick is 1.8%, and you can add those together for a 6.85% chance of a top 4 pick between the two.

The AVG column on the right is the average draft position for that pick based on the odds. 

image.thumb.png.b6042995fbbdc32696443321b45e28b6.png

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3 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

in case you missed it, or better yet if Boban missed it -- 

nice gesture from a very nice guy BUT clock had 4:44 left in game and we only up 105-97 on the road. Could have cost the game and a chance at 0.500.  Not sure if the wisest decision but still won. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/look-rockets-boban-marjanovic-purposefully-misses-free-throw-to-earn-fans-free-chicken-sandwiches/?fbclid=IwAR3lXWq5mYFkdFpLN95ZkS9w1Np_FmtqhR2kDw4DNJmGV1hSloOqlPXpKrE

The Clippers have a promotion in which all fans receive a free Chick-fil-A sandwich if an opposing player misses two consecutive free throws in the fourth quarter. After missing his first free throw, Marjanovic obliged by missing the second throw after clearly being aware of the promotion.

Marjanovic even pointed to the crowd in celebration after bricking the second free throw.

Marjanovic, who played for the Clippers from 2018 to 2019, clearly had a soft spot for the crowd. He acknowledged that he was aware of the promotion, and was happy to award the crowd some free chicken sandwiches.

I mean who really cares about the .500 mark?  We were 5 games back of the Warriors was the only thing that really mattered and we were so far ahead of the rest of the lottery teams it was a no-op even if we lost.

Here is the inline footage..... 

 

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Not sure if this guy's math is right but it seems plausible just we won't know officially till the play in games are done....

Basically 93% chance OKC gets our pick unless Chicago or Atlanta advance then it drops to a 90.6% chance OKC gets our pick.

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On 11/9/2023 at 4:57 AM, Pimphand said:

Man y'all want to overreact both ways LOL.

This team is who we thought they were which is young, talented, and poorly coached (by the previous regime). Ime will make some big strides in fixing the latter deficiency but they still have a ways to go.

I remain optimistic that they can get to .500 or really close this year. Don't expect to learn much with NO in town but the next two games (three if AD can come back) should tell us a lot more between facing the defending champs and then hopefully the healthy veteran laden LA squads on the road.

Was an interesting year for sure had streaks both good and bad.  Couldn't buy a game on the road for the first month and a half till they beat the defending champs in Denver which was wild.  The 2.5 month stretch from Mid-Dec through Feb was brutal going 12-25 but somehow they pulled out of that tailspin and went 13-1 in the next 14 games to get back above .500 and add some excitement to the end of the season.  Definitely have plenty to work on this offseason and plenty to build on.

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1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

 

They earned it for sure.  I still would like to see them hire a President of Basketball Operations to run the front office and keep dipshit Fertita at bay just signing checks and keeping the trains running.

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Vecenie just updated his big board, and to underscore how fluid the lotto is, Risacher dropped from #1 to #8. Earlier in the cycle Collier dropped from #1 to the teens. 

 

Here's his writeup and his lotto

 

Because of how fluid and more or less even the top ~10 are, this is an oddly interesting draft despite how weak it is at the top 

 

The NCAA season is over, and pre-draft workout season has begun, which means it’s time to update the 2024 NBA Draft Big Board.
 
To be frank, I’ve been a bit gun-shy this year on releasing my board. Not because I’m worried about my opinions or reaction, but rather because trying to parse through this class has been dreadfully difficult at the top. As I’ve written throughout the year, I do not have a Tier One or Tier Two player in this class. I’m not even sure how many Tier Three players I will have by the end of the process.
 
At this juncture, I’m open to all possibilities about what the top of this class looks like on draft night. I would say, in some capacity, all of the players ranked in my top 10 have a non-zero chance to go No. 1 overall if things break right in terms of the draft lottery and they have a strong pre-draft process. There are players there who have a much better chance to go No. 1 than others, to be sure, but NBA teams are all over the map in this class. It does not have a sure-fire guy, so teams are doing their due diligence across the spectrum. I cannot remember a class in which the lottery will have such a significant impact on how the top will be selected.
 
Some like the positional certainty and defensive acumen Donovan Clingan will bring compared to Alex Sarr. Others like Sarr’s upside athletically and potential to shoot the ball. Some evaluators like Zaccharie Risacher’s two-way game as a shooter and sharp team defender. Others worry about his athletic upside and prefer a player like Matas Buzelis more, even though the evaluators who like the relative certainty regarding Risacher question Buzelis as a shooter and on-ball defender. Even playing for the same team, some high-ranking evaluators prefer Reed Sheppard’s basketball IQ to Rob Dillingham’s explosive handle and quickness. We’ll talk about Stephon Castle in-depth, but he’s a great example of there being no consensus on prospects this year.
 
Because there’s no sure-fire All-Star, decision-makers have many questions to ponder: What do you value in prospects? What skill sets are most important to you? What translates best in your mind? Or in many cases, what are the skill deficiencies players in this class have that are most fixable to you?
 
By the law of averages, multiple players will be All-Stars from this draft, even with it being a below-average one, and it’ll be because they improved something in their game substantially. Even the 2013 NBA Draft, a class that was seen as bad at the time and maintains that ignominy within front offices, had three players make the All-Star Game, with one of them becoming arguably the best player in the world for a time in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
 
Having said that, the track record on that draft did prove to be, by and large, bad. Only seven of the lottery picks went on to be above-average rotation players, with only one All-Star in the group. After Rudy Gobert was picked at No. 27, only one player — Allen Crabbe — went on to become even an average rotation player for multiple years.

 

1) Sarr

2) Topic

3) Castle

4) Sheppard

5) Clingan

6) Buzelis

7) Holland

😎 Risacher

9) Williams

10) Dillingham

11) Knecht

12) McCain

13) Filipowski

14) Collier

 

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Am I crazy for preferring Reed Sheppard to anyone else slotted 5-10?  Seems like stud shooting Anglo pgs always disappoint the team that drafts them but the Rockets could really use someone who can spread the floor and possibly groom behind Van Fleet.

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39 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Am I crazy for preferring Reed Sheppard to anyone else slotted 5-10?  Seems like stud shooting Anglo pgs always disappoint the team that drafts them but the Rockets could really use someone who can spread the floor and possibly groom behind Van Fleet.

Risacher also makes sense

But yeah spacing while being able to defend should be the priority, at any position. That or drafting for pure upside, but I'm not sure if that exists in this draft

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8 minutes ago, Fud said:

Risacher also makes sense

But yeah spacing while being able to defend should be the priority, at any position. That or drafting for pure upside, but I'm not sure if that exists in this draft

Risacher is going to take minutes Thompson and Eason.  While the scouting report suggests he'll shoot better than both (both now and going forward), they need developmental time and both appear to have superior attributes in other areas (to Risacher).  Smith can also play the three in big line-ups (and if he's not going to grow into a 4/5, this might be his best position even if he's mostly a 4 on the Rockets), so while you may prefer to draft for best player available, I'd have to really a player to want to add bodies at the position with the most depth already. 

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3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Risacher is going to take minutes Thompson and Eason.  While the scouting report suggests he'll shoot better than both (both now and going forward), they need developmental time and both appear to have superior attributes in other areas (to Risacher).  Smith can also play the three in big line-ups (and if he's not going to grow into a 4/5, this might be his best position even if he's mostly a 4 on the Rockets), so while you may prefer to draft for best player available, I'd have to really a player to want to add bodies at the position with the most depth already. 

He's a big wing. You can play 3-4 of those types at the same time, especially if they can shoot. Big wings also maintain value, so he'd be instantly tradable 

When in doubt, draft a 3&D wing

Also, this team needs spacing more than anything

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15 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

PG makes sense. If they can get that position locked, FVV would be an enticing trade piece for contenders with only 2 yrs remaining (midseason trade). 

You could probably get Jordan Poole for him. 

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13 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

PG makes sense. If they can get that position locked, FVV would be an enticing trade piece for contenders with only 2 yrs remaining (midseason trade). 

I had the same thought but I think it's a rare point that doesn't need a few years of grooming and that's perhaps misaligned with our window (particularly if the selection is a miss).  I'd rather trade for a Kyle Lowry type once Van Fleet is a FA. 

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FVV is making 42.8 million next year, no contender is trading for that. His club option in year 3 is not getting picked up by anyone. He is, at best, a salary dump option for a team looking to avoid some taxes and shed future salary on a bad contract. Guys that might fit the bill (but probably not happening) would be KAT, Beal, Trae Young or a Murray/Bogdan package, Lavine, Ayton, Middleton, etc.

They might be able to work their way in as the third team in a big trade and get a pick or two for their troubles.  I think Atlanta will make a big move this off-season, and that might be their best option to help facilitate a deal involving FVV. Take back some salary, but not too much, because they need to extend Sengun next year, and probably Green too.

I think the real question is, do we need FVV with Amen entering his second year? Is it time to hand over the reigns and see what can happen? 

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2 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Ha I just looked they have the lottery on Sunday this year?  WTF?  It's always been on a Tuesday well except for the COVID year when it was bumped out 3 months and held on a Thursday.

wow i didn't know that either.  i also just discovered that the draft is going to be split into two nights this year - one for the first round and the other for the second.  will be interesting to see how well the secod round rates as a stand alone event.

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7 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

wow i didn't know that either.  i also just discovered that the draft is going to be split into two nights this year - one for the first round and the other for the second.  will be interesting to see how well the secod round rates as a stand alone event.

I would guess very low. The second round brings very little interest. Most players drafted are end of bench players and international stashes.

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24 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

wow i didn't know that either.  i also just discovered that the draft is going to be split into two nights this year - one for the first round and the other for the second.  will be interesting to see how well the secod round rates as a stand alone event.

Holy shit that's dumb..... My guess is they will do this one time.

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54 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

I would guess very low. The second round brings very little interest. Most players drafted are end of bench players and international stashes.

 

37 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Holy shit that's dumb..... My guess is they will do this one time.

my thoughts as well.

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