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Posted
5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Dudes. Texas is out. Accept it. They are one of the best 12 teams in the country, and probably one of the top 5, but it doesn’t matter. The cosmic tumblers of the universe didnt align. 

Yep. We gave ourselves a chance beating aggy, but there wasn’t enough chaos elsewhere for us. Oh well. Go win the bowl game and finish 10-3 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Dudes. Texas is out. Accept it. They are one of the best 12 teams in the country, and probably one of the top 5, but it doesn’t matter. The cosmic tumblers of the universe didnt align. 

NYT model has us at 5%. That strikes me as about right. It’s a super unlikely outcome but what else do I have better to do right this minute?  Tomorrow will be work and shit. Today can discuss and dream. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep. We gave ourselves a chance beating aggy, but there wasn’t enough chaos elsewhere for us. Oh well. Go win the bowl game and finish 10-3 

There wasn’t any. It’s been a truly bizarre year in that sense. During the OU v LSU game Texas got all the way up to +138 to make the playoffs. Thats like a 40% chance?  33%?  Something like that. 

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Posted
47 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Vandy actually dropped a spot after crushing #19 Tennessee in Neyland, their fans are furious too.

The real crime is BYU and Miami shoehorned in ahead both of us.

Maybe we should have never scheduled Texas Tech and then we would be undefeated...

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Posted

i think you're just upset that i didn't mention the 1887 Edmunds-Tucker Act disenfranchised the First Presidency of all assets valued over $50000 which makes the cold start from that day forward even more impressive when considering #teamkolob has $293 Billion under management by ensign peak advisors

Posted
1 hour ago, cafe society said:

The committee says a lot of shit that they go back on.  That's a constant.

This is the reality. There is no consistent framework. It's whatever each year's random selection of biased humans decide to weigh. It comes down to simple mental biases: Texas has 3 losses compared to 2. Nevermind they played 5 current top-15 teams and one of those was a 7-point road loss to the defending champ who hasn't had another single-digit game all year. Vandy is named Vandy instead of Notre Dame or Oklahoma. They must suck! Utah's AD is the chairman of the committee.

The sad part is the message it sends about OOC games. Teams are way better off playing a middling ACC or Big 12 program than someone like OSU or Notre Dame. People will counter with examples of playoff teams that had tough OOC games (ND, A&M, tOSU), to which I say - where would that team be ranked if they didn't play that game and got an easy win instead? A&M would still be in the playoffs easily even with a weak-ass SEC schedule. ND would be top 5. OSU would still be #1. Basically, it wouldn't make a difference at all, especially if you have a tough SEC schedule on top like Texas/Bama.

Basically, if Texas had played Tartleton State instead of Ohio St, they would probably be ranked 8 or 9. If they had beat OSU, they would probably be ranked 6-8 (maybe pass ATM and/or OM). The risk/reward of playing that game is nowhere close to worth it. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There wasn’t any. It’s been a truly bizarre year in that sense. During the OU v LSU game Texas got all the way up to +138 to make the playoffs. Thats like a 40% chance?  33%?  Something like that. 

Really?  1/2.38 is right at a 42% chance

Posted
4 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think we needed both which is why I'm surprised the odds went that low.

The odds went that low because I think the SEC is a 5 bid league and we were always gonna get that 5th spot if it opened up. But if it doesnt (and it didnt), the committee will disrespect us because the pressure campaign wont be used anymore. 

Posted

MSM has this article headline: Texas climbs the AP Poll after exposing a fraudulent Texas A&M team in DKR

It mentions our three top ten wins and says better quality wins than 90% of the country. (Prob s/b 100%) It castigates selection process if we don't make it.

It also has a link to last second commitment who was headed to Baylor, Jamarion Carlton, who, at 6'5" 260lbs could start as a freshman. https://hookemheadlines.com/texas-steals-coveted-blue-chip-recruit-from-baylor-after-lone-star-showdown-jamarion-carlton-upset-01kb8r6jdw5y

Texas climbs the AP Poll after exposing a fraudulent Texas A&M team in DKR

Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, WBT said:

Really?  1/2.38 is right at a 42% chance

Dude- they don’t give fair odds in gambling. The house has a rake. And I have no idea how big or small it is during in game betting like that. Thus the question mark.  I’m guessing if they are giving +138 they don’t think it’s a 42% chance but rather less than that. Do you think they’d give even odds if they thought it was 50/50?  Absolutely not. That’s why when they price with a point spread it’s -110. 
The more you know. 
 

from chat gpt:

 

Yep — you’re right on the instincts. Short answer: convert the +138 to an implied probability (≈ 42.02%) and then remember that number almost certainly overstates Texas’s “true” probability because futures markets carry an overround (vig) and extra margin for long-term liability.

Here’s a clean way to think about it and a quick cheat-sheet you can use without the whole 24-team board.

1) Break-even implied probability

+138 →

Implied=100138+100=100238≈42.02%Implied=138+100100=23810042.02%

That’s the percentage you’d need to be correct long-term to break even at +138.

2) Futures vig / overround — how to remove it

The bookmaker’s overround (sum of implied probs − 100%) tells you how much juice is baked in. If you don’t have the full market, use a plausible overround estimate for futures. Futures markets typically carry substantially higheroverrounds than simple spread markets — commonly ~5% to 15%, sometimes even 15–25% on messy, auto-bid/auto-qualify markets.

To estimate the fair probability, divide the implied probability by (1 + overround). Example formula:

pfair≈pimplied1+overroundpfair1+overroundpimplied

3) Quick examples using +138 (implied 42.02%):

  • If overround = 5% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.05 = 40.02%

  • If overround = 10% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.10 = 38.20%

  • If overround = 15% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.15 = 36.54%

  • If overround = 20% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.20 = 35.02%

So depending on how juicy the futures book is, Vegas’s actual internal estimate for Texas might be anywhere from ~35–40% (or even lower on a heavily-vigged market), not the raw 42%.

4) Why futures carry more juice

  • Long liability horizon: bettors can hedge many ways; book wants protection.

  • Thin markets: fewer bettors → larger margins to manage risk.

  • Complexity (auto bids, tie-ins, auto-qualifying slots): more uncertainty, so bigger cuts.

  • Public money bias: shops shade prices to reduce exposure on popular teams.

5) Practical next steps (if you want to quantify it):

  • If you can paste a subset of the market (even the top 6–8 teams) I’ll sum implied probs and compute overround.

  • Or I can pull current market consensus/aggregate odds and compute the true overround (I’d need to search the boards).

  • If you just want a quick rule: assume ~10% overround on a complicated futures market and treat +138 as closer to ~38% true.

You were right to distrust the raw 42% — treat that as the break-even number, not Vegas’s unbiased belief. Want me to pull some current market numbers and do the math on the whole playoff field?

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There wasn’t any. It’s been a truly bizarre year in that sense. During the OU v LSU game Texas got all the way up to +138 to make the playoffs. Thats like a 40% chance?  33%?  Something like that. 

That was an unlikely and frustrating Turkey Saturday.  OU, Bama, UGA we're all facing virtual elimination on the last drive of the game but the favorites went 3-0.

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

This is the reality. There is no consistent framework. It's whatever each year's random selection of biased humans decide to weigh. It comes down to simple mental biases: Texas has 3 losses compared to 2. Nevermind they played 5 current top-15 teams and one of those was a 7-point road loss to the defending champ who hasn't had another single-digit game all year. Vandy is named Vandy instead of Notre Dame or Oklahoma. They must suck! Utah's AD is the chairman of the committee.

The sad part is the message it sends about OOC games. Teams are way better off playing a middling ACC or Big 12 program than someone like OSU or Notre Dame. People will counter with examples of playoff teams that had tough OOC games (ND, A&M, tOSU), to which I say - where would that team be ranked if they didn't play that game and got an easy win instead? A&M would still be in the playoffs easily even with a weak-ass SEC schedule. ND would be top 5. OSU would still be #1. Basically, it wouldn't make a difference at all, especially if you have a tough SEC schedule on top like Texas/Bama.

Basically, if Texas had played Tartleton State instead of Ohio St, they would probably be ranked 8 or 9. If they had beat OSU, they would probably be ranked 6-8 (maybe pass ATM and/or OM). The risk/reward of playing that game is nowhere close to worth it. 

The PC almost always follows the computers, it is their justifications in the media that are all over the map.

 

The exception that proved the rule is FSU in 2023.  The computers didn't know the QB was injured.

Posted

The ONLY way Texas sneaks in is if BYU/Bama lose and they drop them both behind texas(and Texas jumps Miami as they should).  That assumes they the committee would not see the “teams can’t drop by playing in the CCG” as a rule and more a guideline like the whole “tough OOC games won’t hurt you”. 
 

but honesty I want to see BYU win.  Just for the chaos it’ll cause.  They’ll have to be in and Tech won’t drop from 5 with 1 loss not to out completely.  
 

So one of OU/ND/Bama would drop to 11 and thus be kicked for the ACC/G5 champ. 
 

imagine the hoops to drop ND(we all know then won’t) or Bama(and throw out the CCG loser being left out) or even a higher ranked OU who did nothing to drop in the polls. 
 

we’d not only get a move to 16, but do away with the CCGs and tough OOC games going away all in one offseason maybe. 😂 

Posted
1 hour ago, Drew said:

The ONLY way Texas sneaks in is if BYU/Bama lose and they drop them both behind texas(and Texas jumps Miami as they should).  That assumes they the committee would not see the “teams can’t drop by playing in the CCG” as a rule and more a guideline like the whole “tough OOC games won’t hurt you”. 
 

but honesty I want to see BYU win.  Just for the chaos it’ll cause.  They’ll have to be in and Tech won’t drop from 5 with 1 loss not to out completely.  
 

So one of OU/ND/Bama would drop to 11 and thus be kicked for the ACC/G5 champ. 
 

imagine the hoops to drop ND(we all know then won’t) or Bama(and throw out the CCG loser being left out) or even a higher ranked OU who did nothing to drop in the polls. 
 

 

I have no doubt Bama will play Georgia close enough that a loss won't be a problem.

The easiest thing to do will be for the committee to say Florida loss kept us out and point out our SOR is not in top 10.  when we all know it is just the loss column number. 

the BYU winning conundrum would be hilarious though.  Going to 16 is problematic because the committee wants byes to keep conf champ games more relevant when both participants are obviously in like Indiana/OSU.  G5 playing #1 team is also a much lower chance of pulling an upset.  now they play #5.

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Posted

The problem is not the playoff format (although I don’t like the concept at all). The problem is these mega-conferences which create scheduling imbalances inherently.  It’s a problem colleges made for themselves. In a pre-2024 world:

- The SEC West has sorted out Ole Miss, ‘Bama, and A&M with one team going to CCG and maybe one an outside shot at an at-large. 

- The PAC-12 is looking to send one of likely Oregon and USC.

- The ACC’s best team in Miami is heading to a CCG and not at home due to scheduling weirdness. Or is just out and two teams that won divisions are in.

- The Big XII has whittled down OU, Texas, Tech, and BYU to two or max three.

But as I’ve said, the playoff was a solution to a problem that only existed in the hot takes of sports talking heads. And at this point we spend all our energy trying to fix the playoff at the expense of all the stuff that made CFB great like regional rivalries, fun OOC games, battles for conference bragging rights, mid-major interest and engagement, etc. Bass-ackwards. 

 

 

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Posted
Just now, DaysOff said:

There's just too many SEC teams in front of us right now. Their not going to put in 6. Hell, last year it was 3.

This is and has always been my point. 

Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

There's just too many SEC teams in front of us right now. Their not going to put in 6. Hell, last year it was 3.

Which is why the only real chance is bama/BYU loss and jumping Texas up.  
 

I still want chaos and BYU winning now. Seeing which team gets screwed and bumped out so 2 big 12 teams get in.  
 

They’re  giving Texas shit for politicking watch what happens when’s ND/Bama/OU is doing it.  

Edited by Drew
Posted
55 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is and has always been my point. 

Agreed.  OU/Bama not losing really was the nail.  I’d love to see a bama loss drop them but they won’t do it most likely. 
 

but bumping them out because BYU won would be hilarious. 
 

Would not surprise me at all to see these rankings have both ND and Bama jump OU so they don’t have to make a decision between ND and a possible SEC loss Bama being edged out for BYU and can drop OU to 11 to put BYU in at 10.  

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