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Posted
32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

You have to believe that the Ukrainians are monitoring every negative thing said about Trump and America - and immediately passing the quotes onto the White House (like they did on a visit a couple months ago).   I truly hope they are continuing to do that, as I think it is one of their more effective arguments to get mote kit and intelligence from the US.   

They need to get some secret poll of world leaders to view Trump as weak, unlike Putin.  You have to believe that Russian state TV will pounce on that and reinforce it.  While Trump will be pissed, he’ll probably start dumping stuff into Ukraine.

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Posted

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

They planted explosives by hand on pipelines on the other side of Moscow, so we know they have operatives deep inside of Russia .plus, even though the head of Ukrainian intelligence is young, he made his reputation operating behind Russian lines after 2014.

I feel like they have a lot of intelligence on Russian AD deployments.  Russia may not even be moving stuff around, they maybe pretty tapped out.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Shadow fleet tankers actually being destroyed is new.  At some point, you have to think that the owners don’t want to risk losing the ships (since the ships are probably uninsurable), rather than take Putin‘s generous payments for running that risk.   

Black market entrepreneurs are greedy, but I’d imagine that they aren’t so greedy that they will risk losing their main assets once that situation turns from a possible to a probable scenario.

They probably have their transponders turned off, but would be interesting to see if tankers are leaving the Black Sea through the Straits riding high

Posted

Sorry to continue the derail regarding B-24s, Ploesti, etc. I thought some might find it interesting that the 376th bomb group donated all of their records to the Briscoe Center at UT. 

I learned this researching my great-great uncle's plane. He was a tail gunner and was KIA over Budapest on July 2, 1944.

https://briscoecenter.org/support/endowments/376th-endowed-internship/

image.png.756b5a44fd138171d973c128b0c7c210.png

Story from survivor of his plane: https://www.armyaircorps-376bg.com/kesler_earl_440702.html

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

They're definitely getting the good stuff from us now.

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Posted
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They planted explosives by hand on pipelines on the other side of Moscow, so we know they have operatives deep inside of Russia .plus, even though the head of Ukrainian intelligence is young, he made his reputation operating behind Russian lines after 2014.

I feel like they have a lot of intelligence on Russian AD deployments.  Russia may not even be moving stuff around, they maybe pretty tapped out.

I have very little specific knowledge of some of my posts, but I can drive Google Earth & search pretty good.  I am able to match up information from the posts here and related rabbit holes and provide what you read here.

If one had Process Flow Diagrams and Plot Plans of facilities, it would be very easy to dial in GPS coordinates, and hit the critical pieces of equipment.

Some of the videos of the hits on Refinery Towers tells me the camera guys knew exactly when and where to start the video.  Nobody takes a video of a refinery for shits and giggles, unless they have a reason to do it.

You all know better than I, but I think a lot of the USSR technology came from Ukraine. The Antonov 225 (Mira) and her two MIG escorts that came to Oklahoma City in '90-91, that Russia destroyed the first week of the war, were painted in Ukraine colors. Somebody went through the basements and archives and mined the data Ukraine needed to improve their targeting of strategic facilities.

I could go back to my posts from the past 3 years (I am not doing it) and get a general idea when Ukraine got better at hitting targets. It is a combination of two different things, better targeting information and better weapons systems.
 

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russias rubber supply impacted  paging @PTINS this seems huge.

and another refinery

 

This is the third time in 2 months Ukraine has hit the Sterlitamak Industrial complex; The Power Plant, the Avangard Chemical Plant in October and the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant this week. It could be 3 different companies are all the same, but they are all next to each other, with a combined footprint of 4-5 Sq miles.

Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant General Information

Manufacturer of petrochemicals products based in Bashkortostan, Russia. The company manufactures styrene-butadiene rubbers, aviation and sports gasoline, multi-product low-tonnage chemicals, high-octane fuel additives and other petrochemical products, thereby helping companies in the production of phenolic antioxidants, used for the production of synthetic rubbers, plastics, fibers, lubricating and transformer oils, as well as for the feed, food and cosmetics industries.

image.thumb.png.a37e95f16ac5dff021623cc7c463b16b.png

They make a lot of weapons related products. If they make the rubber products, given the size of the complex, that probably also make tires. 

The recent video was shot from the lower LH corner of my screenshot, with the orange rectangle deemed to be the probable location of the explosion and fire,

The red polygon in the NE corner is an ''ammunition storage" area, which could be either ammunition, or propelants, or rocket fuels, etc. That is also within the scope of the video, and they do make nice fireballs.

From earlier in the war, 

image.png.b3e5d9031e0097078f423929ebb947b4.png

 

1506537373-blawn.gif

 

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