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Posted
32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

You have to believe that the Ukrainians are monitoring every negative thing said about Trump and America - and immediately passing the quotes onto the White House (like they did on a visit a couple months ago).   I truly hope they are continuing to do that, as I think it is one of their more effective arguments to get mote kit and intelligence from the US.   

They need to get some secret poll of world leaders to view Trump as weak, unlike Putin.  You have to believe that Russian state TV will pounce on that and reinforce it.  While Trump will be pissed, he’ll probably start dumping stuff into Ukraine.

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Posted

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

They planted explosives by hand on pipelines on the other side of Moscow, so we know they have operatives deep inside of Russia .plus, even though the head of Ukrainian intelligence is young, he made his reputation operating behind Russian lines after 2014.

I feel like they have a lot of intelligence on Russian AD deployments.  Russia may not even be moving stuff around, they maybe pretty tapped out.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Shadow fleet tankers actually being destroyed is new.  At some point, you have to think that the owners don’t want to risk losing the ships (since the ships are probably uninsurable), rather than take Putin‘s generous payments for running that risk.   

Black market entrepreneurs are greedy, but I’d imagine that they aren’t so greedy that they will risk losing their main assets once that situation turns from a possible to a probable scenario.

They probably have their transponders turned off, but would be interesting to see if tankers are leaving the Black Sea through the Straits riding high

Posted

Sorry to continue the derail regarding B-24s, Ploesti, etc. I thought some might find it interesting that the 376th bomb group donated all of their records to the Briscoe Center at UT. 

I learned this researching my great-great uncle's plane. He was a tail gunner and was KIA over Budapest on July 2, 1944.

https://briscoecenter.org/support/endowments/376th-endowed-internship/

image.png.756b5a44fd138171d973c128b0c7c210.png

Story from survivor of his plane: https://www.armyaircorps-376bg.com/kesler_earl_440702.html

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I'm beginning to think that Ukraine is getting reliable intelligence on when Air Defense Systems are being moved. The attacks seem random in location, but overall strategic. Like they have a list of 10 of targets each day, and know which ones have air defense and which ones have a Toyota with a machine gun in the back. 

Might be causing some of those defense system to be in constant movement rather than actually defending anything. 

They're definitely getting the good stuff from us now.

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Posted
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They planted explosives by hand on pipelines on the other side of Moscow, so we know they have operatives deep inside of Russia .plus, even though the head of Ukrainian intelligence is young, he made his reputation operating behind Russian lines after 2014.

I feel like they have a lot of intelligence on Russian AD deployments.  Russia may not even be moving stuff around, they maybe pretty tapped out.

I have very little specific knowledge of some of my posts, but I can drive Google Earth & search pretty good.  I am able to match up information from the posts here and related rabbit holes and provide what you read here.

If one had Process Flow Diagrams and Plot Plans of facilities, it would be very easy to dial in GPS coordinates, and hit the critical pieces of equipment.

Some of the videos of the hits on Refinery Towers tells me the camera guys knew exactly when and where to start the video.  Nobody takes a video of a refinery for shits and giggles, unless they have a reason to do it.

You all know better than I, but I think a lot of the USSR technology came from Ukraine. The Antonov 225 (Mira) and her two MIG escorts that came to Oklahoma City in '90-91, that Russia destroyed the first week of the war, were painted in Ukraine colors. Somebody went through the basements and archives and mined the data Ukraine needed to improve their targeting of strategic facilities.

I could go back to my posts from the past 3 years (I am not doing it) and get a general idea when Ukraine got better at hitting targets. It is a combination of two different things, better targeting information and better weapons systems.
 

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russias rubber supply impacted  paging @PTINS this seems huge.

and another refinery

 

This is the third time in 2 months Ukraine has hit the Sterlitamak Industrial complex; The Power Plant, the Avangard Chemical Plant in October and the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant this week. It could be 3 different companies are all the same, but they are all next to each other, with a combined footprint of 4-5 Sq miles.

Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant General Information

Manufacturer of petrochemicals products based in Bashkortostan, Russia. The company manufactures styrene-butadiene rubbers, aviation and sports gasoline, multi-product low-tonnage chemicals, high-octane fuel additives and other petrochemical products, thereby helping companies in the production of phenolic antioxidants, used for the production of synthetic rubbers, plastics, fibers, lubricating and transformer oils, as well as for the feed, food and cosmetics industries.

image.thumb.png.a37e95f16ac5dff021623cc7c463b16b.png

They make a lot of weapons related products. If they make the rubber products, given the size of the complex, that probably also make tires. 

The recent video was shot from the lower LH corner of my screenshot, with the orange rectangle deemed to be the probable location of the explosion and fire,

The red polygon in the NE corner is an ''ammunition storage" area, which could be either ammunition, or propelants, or rocket fuels, etc. That is also within the scope of the video, and they do make nice fireballs.

From earlier in the war, 

image.png.b3e5d9031e0097078f423929ebb947b4.png

 

1506537373-blawn.gif

 

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Posted

Kstovo — a little tour of the Lukoil refinery. The video shows repairs being carried out on a distillation column responsible for primary oil processing, which was damaged after previous attacks. They say that everything was "shot down" last night — it’s just that "debris was falling."

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Posted

 

"In essence, the ‘special military operation’ is genocide against our own people". - Mikhail Spiridonov, a participant in the "special operation" and a resident of the village of Yadrikhino in the Transbaikal region. Upon returning home, he discovered that almost no one remained in his village. Of the three mobilized fellow villagers, one was killed, and another returned with severe injuries.

 

"Understand, I’m a soldier. I don’t decide anything." — this guy is signing a contract for the second time already — it’s still not enough for him. And what does he want? Money? No. He just wants to kill — he enjoys it. But the second time, it turned out he had to fight drones, and that he doesn’t want to do: he says he likes to see his enemy.

 

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Posted
51 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

As somebody who spent a long time in networking/IT, this is wish fulfillment for me.

And I thought hot-wiring something was so 80's.

49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kstovo — a little tour of the Lukoil refinery. The video shows repairs being carried out on a distillation column responsible for primary oil processing, which was damaged after previous attacks. They say that everything was "shot down" last night — it’s just that "debris was falling."

It looks like they are either routine repairs or just fixing some minor collateral damage.

There are no scorch marks, and the piping doesn't look like a bowl of black spaghetti.

I'd like to see some photo's and video's of the aftermath of the explosions in the attack videos.

 image.png.3ac21f1bad451a7bc5e4cd40aeddc84a.png

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Posted
1 hour ago, choripan said:

@atomheartbevo, just a quick thanks to you and others generally for so many good updates, and also specifically for copying the text into the message board here so we don't have to click through to Twitter.

I'm going to try and avoid twitter, but the video still plays on the page instead of being taken off somewhere else with Bluesky. Unfortunately a lot of the sources referenced are using twitter.  I'll try to screenshot.

It's fascinating as hell to me.

I took a long break from following it closely because I was busy with other stuff, but watching Red Dawn with my kid recently (and Rocky IV and World War III with Rock Hudson)  got me back into, as he was dumbfounded over how they went from their portrayals in the 1980s to now.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm going to try and avoid twitter, but the video still plays on the page instead of being taken off somewhere else with Bluesky. Unfortunately a lot of the sources referenced are using twitter.  I'll try to screenshot.

It's fascinating as hell to me.

I took a long break from following it closely because I was busy with other stuff, but watching Red Dawn with my kid recently (and Rocky IV and World War III with Rock Hudson)  got me back into, as he was dumbfounded over how they went from their portrayals in the 1980s to now.

You do a damn fine job Sir. If I get the chance, first drink is on me. You can buy the second. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I have no clue what is going on there, but is this another battle where Ukraine is going to make Russia pay a massive price? It's costing Ukraine a lot, but we've seen it in the past where they decide the cost to Russia is far higher.

G47QFfxbsAA5ioA?format=jpg&name=4096x409

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted
17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

OK, this is bad ass. Hunting in tandems. 

 

And following a trail through the leaves with the camera on the drone and not wrecking the props on any of the bushes.

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Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kyiv: used to blackouts, equipped for blackouts

Moscow: ghostbusters GIF

 

 

lmao what a great example of "every accusation is a confession" with the russian state media accusing the US of stoking divisions in russia

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

lmao what a great example of "every accusation is a confession" with the russian state media accusing the US of stoking divisions in russia

There's going to be some pretty serious divisions in Russia this winter when the rich are getting fuel for their generators and the poor are being told to burn their furniture to stay warm. 

Russia generally doesn't do so well when the poor are constantly getting turbo-fucked, and while Putin has done a good job of removing anybody the peasants can rally around, there comes a point where they won't need a central figure to spur them on, since they can spur each other on through social media.

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Posted
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I have no clue what is going on there, but is this another battle where Ukraine is going to make Russia pay a massive price? It's costing Ukraine a lot, but we've seen it in the past where they decide the cost to Russia is far higher.

G47QFfxbsAA5ioA?format=jpg&name=4096x409

It looks like Bakhmut 2.0.

Honestly, for the 1st half of the war, I was immersed in the day-day battles up and down the line. Over time it got very depressing, given the overwhelming superiority Russia had in numbers they could throw at the wall. For Ukraine, I never viewed them as just numbers, but as people. 

With Ukraine receiving longer range strike weapons, and DEVELOPING their own weapons systems, including drones, and given "permission" to strike Russia and defend themselves, my focus shifted to Ukraine's prosecution of the war in Russia, because it was strategic, and was an arms length war with minimal Ukraine casualties.

Pokrovsk has been sobering. The cumulative effect of Ukraine targeting critical Russian infrastructure is going to catch up with Russia at some point, but Ukraine is still losing people every day. It reminds me of how naive I was when I thought we were winning in Vietnam, until I grew up and realized people I knew from Bergstrom didn't come home. 

But I see how effective Ukraine has been in their targeting deep inside of Russia, and believe they will have similar success along the front lines.

"Slava Ukraini!"

 

 

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Posted
13 hours ago, choripan said:

@atomheartbevo, just a quick thanks to you and others generally for so many good updates, and also specifically for copying the text into the message board here so we don't have to click through to Twitter.

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

You do a damn fine job Sir. If I get the chance, first drink is on me. You can buy the second. 

If you are reading this, I have more in common with you than most people I know.

I came here long ago to talk about Texas football; now I spend 3/4's of my time on Surly on this thread, and very little on the football boards. The insight and opinions you share with us are so much more grounded in facts and reality than anything I read elsewhere.  Thank you all.

Put me down for a round.  Not sure where or when, but I'd welcome a meet and greet.

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Posted

image.thumb.png.f8b072acd822758b32fb308aeb1805c4.png

Aleksandr heard the whine of an approaching Russian drone. A Ukrainian infantryman on a four-soldier foot patrol, he was picking his way at 2 a.m. through the waist-high vegetation of an August meadow. A high-pitched whir rose in the moonless quiet. An armed multicopter had detected them and was maneuvering to attack.

Now luck would influence fates. The soldiers were on a mission to string wire across the forlorn emptiness between opposing trench lines, creating obstacles to entangle Russian infantry and strip invaders on motocross bikes from their seats. Weighed down by equipment, they were caught in the open and exposed. The nearest hint of protection — the woodlot they stepped out from minutes before — was about 300 yards back.

Both Russia and Ukraine operate remotely piloted mini-aircraft that watch over the battlefield with cameras and pursue targets on sight. Some drop bomblets. Others sweep low with explosive charges to strike quarry kamikaze-style. All fly more than twice the speed that even a fit soldier can sprint, a disparity ensuring that many engagements end in one-sided agonies and video-recorded gore. In this new form of warfare, chance still plays a role. When multiple soldiers appear together, most drones cannot strike them all. A pilot must decide: This man? That one? The fleeing soldier who tripped, becoming an easy kill? Or the pair running together who might be felled two at once?

The pilot chose Aleksandr, a silhouette holding a rifle in tall grass.

The drone stopped above him and released a small explosive munition. After a brief free fall, it landed beside him on dirt.

Light flashed in Aleksandr’s eyes, accompanied by a blast that threw him down. His luck was bad: Shrapnel tore through him; pain flared in his left leg. His luck was good: The drone did not linger for the finish. It darted away, chasing his peers as they bounded for trees. Bleeding, pressed to soil, he heard more explosions, off in the direction from where he had come.

Quiet settled over the field.

Gift link. Long read (28 minutes) but well worth it: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/magazine/ukraine-russia-war-drones.html?unlocked_article_code=1.y08.O2KZ.yGOvMOdt95zB&smid=url-share 

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Posted (edited)

The latest reports from Pokrovsk are that the Ukrainian units aren't encircled, but the situation isn't great. The decision has apparently been made to hold out as long as possible to inflict maximum damage, and because Pokrovsk holds a lot of strategic value.

 

Edited by Schulz2.0
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Posted
51 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Pokrovsk has been sobering. The cumulative effect of Ukraine targeting critical Russian infrastructure is going to catch up with Russia at some point, but Ukraine is still losing people every day. It reminds me of how naive I was when I thought we were winning in Vietnam, until I grew up and realized people I knew from Bergstrom didn't come home. 

But I see how effective Ukraine has been in their targeting deep inside of Russia, and believe they will have similar success along the front lines.

5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The latest reports from Pokrovsk are that the Ukrainian units aren't encircled, but the situation isn't great. The decision has apparently been made to hold out as long as possible to inflict maximum damage, and because Pokrovsk holds a lot of strategic value.

It's crazy that they've spent over 100,000 dead and wounded trying to get Pokrovsk, a city of 50-60,000, but as Schulz mentioned, it holds some strategic value, and Putin needs a psychological win. I'm wondering if Ukraine is looking at the impact of their eroding the transportation infrastructure and think if they hold out a little longer, it'll pay off.

 

Posted

Belgium plans to invoke NATO’s Article 4 following recent drone incidents

Repeated drone overflights have raised serious concerns in Brussels, according to local media reports.

Article 4 of the NATO Treaty provides for consultations among member states whenever a country feels its territorial integrity or security is threatened.

Earlier, during a massive Russian drone attack on Ukraine on September 10, a Polish request to activate Article 4 followed after a “Shahed” drone entered its airspace.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's crazy that they've spent over 100,000 dead and wounded trying to get Pokrovsk, a city of 50-60,000, but as Schulz mentioned, it holds some strategic value, and Putin needs a psychological win. I'm wondering if Ukraine is looking at the impact of their eroding the transportation infrastructure and think if they hold out a little longer, it'll pay off.

 

There's been criticism of the decision. Some are arguing they're making the same mistakes made in Bakhmut, Kursk, and Vuhledar where they hold out past the point that it's advantageous for the defenders and take excessive casualties.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

There's been criticism of the decision. Some are arguing they're making the same mistakes made in Bakhmut, Kursk, and Vuhledar where they hold out past the point that it's advantageous for the defenders and take excessive casualties.

There's always that criticism.  I think it must be very difficult to determine when you've got your best return on your strategy.  

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