Jump to content

2018 Poker run good or die


bigup2dahorns

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, Modessit said:

You mean like everyone limping to you in the BB so you get a free flop with 64o and the flop is 664 and you're trying to figure out how to pull the most chips when the SB shoves and has you covered so you call to see he has 83 off and the turn is an 8 and the river is an 8? Yeah, that happened.

 

 

Yeah I think it was something similar. Pretty sure the hand I was talking about I lost to a 27 off suit and he picked up a straight on the river (he was all in and I had called him). I had pocket face cards or a 3ok or some such. 

He was also some douchebag wearing a pokerstars jacket at a freeroll at a shitty bar I was at with some buddies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like talking through my hands, things just add up better.


I strongly suggest you NOT do this! I LOVE when guys tell me how much they know (or don’t) about odds, board texture and recognize deviations from standard play.

In my room, I know 80% of the players at this point. Every one of us is spending most of our effort trying to decode you, the other 20%. Don’t help us!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 


I strongly suggest you NOT do this! I LOVE when guys tell me how much they know (or don’t) about odds, board texture and recognize deviations from standard play.

In my room, I know 80% of the players at this point. Every one of us is spending most of our effort trying to decode you, the other 20%. Don’t help us!

 

I meant through my opponents hands....like "did you catch a flush?  That didn't make sense, etc." 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I meant through my opponents hands....like "did you catch a flush?  That didn't make sense, etc." 


Cool. Even then, “that didn’t make sense” has TWO problems:
1) you’re telling me as a 3rd party not in the hand, that you recognize incongruent stories, an advanced skill.
2) you’re telling the guy who is running a bad bluff that we’re on to him. Never tell them! We don’t want them improving their play!

In short, talk less. Like showing cards, it’s simply not going to be in your favor long term
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 


Cool. Even then, “that didn’t make sense” has TWO problems:
1) you’re telling me as a 3rd party not in the hand, that you recognize incongruent stories, an advanced skill.
2) you’re telling the guy who is running a bad bluff that we’re on to him. Never tell them! We don’t want them improving their play!

In short, talk less. Like showing cards, it’s simply not going to be in your favor long term

 

I think I see where you're coming from.  Thanks, I'll take that into consideration.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There’s a 30 dollar tournament at my country club every Thursday. Usually 30-50 guys. Most of them really bad. I’ve played 8 times. 7 final tables before i busted out early last week.

There is a notoriously bad player. Legitimately plays any queen. Will call any bet if he has a queen. I have Aces in the Big bland. There were 4 callers, including Mr. Queen. I make a pot size raise. Two callers including Mr. Queen. Flop comes J, 4, 9. Queen shoves. I call. Third folds. Turn is a Q. River is a 4. 

Mr. Queen flops over Q4 off. I become ragey. I can’t laydown, can I? I mean, I know he probably has a queen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When would you lay down even if his cards were face up, you dominated him on flop when he shoved.

Also, when you raise a limped pot, think (5+# of additional limpers) * BB. In this case, (5+3) x BB. 8 BB rather than the 4BB you raised (I think, based off details provided). You generally don’t want a multi way flop, particularly out of position and such a small raise isn’t likely to get anyone out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lurch said:

When would you lay down even if his cards were face up, you dominated him on flop when he shoved.

Also, when you raise a limped pot, think (5+# of additional limpers) * BB. In this case, (5+3) x BB. 8 BB rather than the 4BB you raised (I think, based off details provided). You generally don’t want a multi way flop, particularly out of position and such a small raise isn’t likely to get anyone out.

Ya. Hindsight the raise probably wasn’t enough. I’m pretty sure Mr. Queen would have called regardless. It’s just infuriating. He busted a couple lands later with Q7 raising a bigger stack when AQ2 flopped. I know he’s a fish and he’ll be my ATM for the long run but god that pissed me off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, ocugolf said:

Ya. Hindsight the raise probably wasn’t enough. I’m pretty sure Mr. Queen would have called regardless. It’s just infuriating. He busted a couple lands later with Q7 raising a bigger stack when AQ2 flopped. I know he’s a fish and he’ll be my ATM for the long run but god that pissed me off.

Nvm

Edited by ztejas
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whoops. 

So folding after he shoved would have been the only play, I guess. But he probably had a 10% or less chance at the pot after that flop. Shitty. 

37 minutes ago, ocugolf said:

I’m pretty sure Mr. Queen would have called regardless.

You're probably right. The fact that he shoved after picking up a pair of 4s tells me he's an idiot that got lucky. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whoops. 

So folding after he shoved would have been the only play, I guess. But he probably had a 10% or less chance at the pot after that flop. Shitty. 

You're probably right. The fact that he shoved after picking up a pair of 4s tells me he's an idiot that got lucky. 

 

He was actually 25% to win on flop vs AA. Three queens and two 4s to two pair or trips, plus backdoor straight. If his shove was half pot or less, it’s actually in line, particularly with fold equity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

He was actually 25% to win on flop vs AA. Three queens and two 4s to two pair or trips, plus backdoor straight. If his shove was half pot or less, it’s actually in line, particularly with fold equity.

Do you have those memorized or do you have a site that you can put hands into that will tell you?

I'd love to play around with something like that so I'm not just guessing like I did in my comment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Governor of Poker app is what I use but there are many. Just look for poker calculator

In our heads, we use the rule of “2 and 4”. Count the outs (there were 5, QQQ44) and multiply that by 4 (20%) if there are two streets to come, or multiply by 2 (10%) if you only have the river left. Tack a few points on for additional backdoor straight draws in this situation

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Governor of Poker app is what I use but there are many. Just look for poker calculator

In our heads, we use the rule of “2 and 4”. Count the outs (there were 5, QQQ44) and multiply that by 4 (20%) if there are two streets to come, or multiply by 2 (10%) if you only have the river left. Tack a few points on for additional backdoor straight draws in this situation

Int. I'm pretty good at doing odds in my head when I'm actually there looking at the cards and sitting at the table. 

But I'd like to work on actually memorizing some %s when I forget to account for something or I'm unsure. 

Telling me 21.62% to be exact after that flop, assuming there wasn't a potential flush. I don't think I was considering trip 4s doing it in my head. 

Edited by ztejas
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And now just busted in the first hand tonight. QhJh. Flop Kc10h9h. Had 4 callers preflop. Bet the pot. Get one caller. Turn is. 5c. I bet 400. Get raised. I call. I assumed he’s got Ah and some small heart chasing the nut flush. River Js. I bet. He goes all in. I call. Flips over Ac, Jd for the nut flush. I hate this game sometimes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry. The original was closer to correct. I had QJhs. Flop Kh 10h 9c. I raised after the flop. Got two callers. Turn is a blank. I bet. Get raised. Called. River is Was Js. I assume he’s been raising with Ah and a smaller heart. Goes all in. He flips over Ah Qc for the nut straight. My original post was when I’m full on tilt. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet size matters I suppose, but it’s pretty difficult to lay down a set before river because you’re always drawing to a boat. He had 10 outs to a boat or quads, so 20% to catch up on river and that’s only if he thinks Daniel has a straight. He’s more likely to have two pair or one pair w straight draw
I've been thinking more about this and would love some more insight on when you decide the reward is worth the risk. Bet size by your opponent? Stack sizes?

I've been trying to do some math and figure that playing 9-handed (which is what I think they were at that point) - at that point in the hand there would be 14 mucked cards, 1 burn, 3 flop, 1 burn, 1 turn, and 1 burn to come. 21 cards taken out of play. At this point Daniel has the best probable hand from his point of view with his opponent having about a 13.8% chance of having either end of a straight himself:

(21+ Dan's 2)/52 * 7 possibilities = 3 cards out of play. 4 remaining possibilities/29 remaining cards = 13.79% chance opponent has a straight. The odds of his opponent having the same J10 have to be about what - 3%?

That's from Dan's point of view. He's got to figure only a boat beats him at this point.

His opponent is sitting on a set and has to think that the odds of Dan having a straight are:

23/52 * 8 = 3.5
8-3.5 = 4.5 outs.
Since he has two chances to have one of those cards I'll give it a 50% boost to 6 outs.
6/29= 20.68% that he has a straight.

So he needs a boat to win. He got 10 outs. I'd almost argue that the 9 isn't worth including since the chances against quads are pretty high, but no matter.

23/52 * 10 = 4.42
That gives the odds of 5.58 outs. Round up to 6.
6/29 = 20.68% to get a boat.

So if you're just going on odds, you have the same chance of getting a boat on the river as him having a straight already. That's not counting in that he might get a better straight on the river than you might get if a 5 or 10 comes.

Basically you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Is that considered significant enough to justify calling any bet at the turn? Where do you draw the line?

And feel free to correct my math if I screwed up my analysis. I'm trying to understand from an intellectual level.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To start, there is no need to concern yourself with mucked/burned cards. We know of 6 cards, our two and the four on the board. All of our calculations are against the 46 remaining, unknown, cards.

 

10 of those get us a boat, so 10/46 = 23.8% chance of hitting our boat or quads (hell yeah we count that quad card! It’s 10% of our outs, and if we’re playing Sooner, we’re going to hit it!)

 

If I’m going to win a quarter of the time, I need to be paid at least four times the bet size when I hit in order to break even on that bet long term. (In a cash game, we assume we’re running this situation an infinite amount of times)

 

So, if the pot is $50 on the turn and you bet me $25 in this situation, if I’m the one with the set that’s chasing boat/quads on the river, I see that if I call $25, I’ll win $100* should I hit. That’s 4 times my bet, so I am justified in making the call, though it’s boarder-line at best (actually it’s losing since the real odds of hitting is actually 23.8%).

 

Had you bet $15, I’d be getting much better odds (15 to win 80, so 5x my bet) and certainly call. Had you bet pot, I’d be getting bad odds (50 to win 150, so only 3x my bet).

 

You can see, then, why bet sizing matters when you think your opponent is chasing a straight, flush, etc!

 

*In is situation, it’s likely that if we’re chasing the boat, our opponent will put even more money in on the river even if we hit. Therefore, we could actually increase our win size amount with this assumption. That’s called implied odds and is a deeper discussion.

 

ALSO, this is cash only, where when we lose we just rebuy. In tourney, when you miss and you’re out, the stakes are more than just what’s in the pot, so we have to factor that in too. That’s called the Independent Chip Model, or ICM. Another deeper discussion.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok. I just don't know why you discount the burned cards. I understand that theoretically all 10 outs can still be in play, but statistically if I took a third of the deck away at the beginning and then had you play the hand, you'd have to play under the assumption that a third of your outs are also gone, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Modessit said:

Ok. I just don't know why you discount the burned cards. I understand that theoretically all 10 outs can still be in play, but statistically if I took a third of the deck away at the beginning and then had you play the hand, you'd have to play under the assumption that a third of your outs are also gone, no?

Because we don’t know what they are. The burn cards are the easiest to wrap your mind around...a burn card is exactly as likely to be an A, 2, 9, etc. since we don’t know which of this it is, we must still count that card as both a possible out and as a remaining card for odds calculations.

Mucked cards get the same treatment mathematically.

Edit for an example...if you took 1/3 of the deck away, you take 1/3 of the outs but also 1/3 of the blanks, so you’re not changing the odds. Let’s take a hypothetical where you have 12 outs with 45 unknown cards on the river. If you reshuffle all cards out of play, I’ll draw my winner 12/45 (26.6%). If you take or we started with 1/3 of the deck gone I catch my winner 8/30 (also 26.6%). So any card that is unknown to us, whether folded, burned, or still in the deck gets identical treatment.

 

Edited by VolenteHawk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There’s a whole different conversation about the odds of what our opponent is holding. I’m not aware of any formulaic approach like the one you took. Rather, we consider an opponent’s “range” (the card combos he likely played in this situation) and leverage that. From there, we can eliminate some combos because of the 6 cards we know of.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

all that story tells you is how fucking screwed up the payout odds are for that bet.... I get that the casino is there to make money, but DAMN,  its a 1 in 20M chance to happen and the guy only gets paid 1M on a $5 bet. 

otherwise known  as a 1/100th of real odds payout percentage. 

 

The casino doesn't add all those bullshit bonus bets to table games for nothing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kinda pissed off at poker right now. got absolutely  rogered by the poker gods tonight.

The only saving grace was it was a $30 tourney. 

20 runners,  we just sat the final table of 10, I am either 2nd or 3rd in chips.

I break even on the first orbit, and 3 separate times  that orbit, the short stack got it all in bad, and survived

Ive got 123k,  blinds are 2/4k, sitting in late position. There are three players who have limped ahead of me, none of them is the chip leader (he's the BB) and I look down at Q8s Spades, and decide to play bigger stack, and make a medium move. I raise it to 20k, since there is already 18k in dead money in the pot. 

BB calls - hes a spaz, makes a lot of horrible pre-flop calls for a lot of chips, but gets away with just the right hand enough times to survive. and he knocked the last 3 players out of the tourney, so he's flush with chips hes barely got more chips than me. . 

last MP limper calls as well-  she overvalues the shit out of any king or ace in her hand pre-flop. shes only got 45k total to start this hand so no fucking clue why she doesnt either shove or fold. 

flop comes 9s-10s-Jc uh yahtzee, yes pls. 

 

BB bets out on the flop..... but ONLY  for $4k.     MP calls very hesitantly, and I make it $11k both to see if a flush draw is out there, and because theres already almost 90 in the pot anyway. 

BB makes it $25k.    MP folds with only $21k behind,  and I pop it to $50k to make the BB pay for his flush draw to my made hand. 

except BB makes it $100k and that basically has us both covered, I go all in for $103k,   he obviously calls.

and  heflips over KQ offsuit for the fucking nuts.   ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

no problem, Ive got 10 outs twice to either win or tie.

 

nope, no joy in Mudville, I fucking strike out. and I am out of the tourney in 10th fucking place. 

 

and yes I know KQ is a possibility- but honestly i would have expected it from the fucking MP player to be calling with KQ rather than the BB, who had 3 other players to act behind him before the flop even happens.  and then to get it in with 2nd nuts to the fucking chip leader with the nuts, but me having a redraw to be the absolute massive chip leader, and to strike out.... mother fucker.    

Edited by AUS-97HORN
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Lurch said:

Looks like you have 8 BB. Should be enough to do some quick damage and then run it up!

Surprised they aren’t doing BB Ante. Figured everyone would be by now.

BB ante is the way to go.  My poker club does this now and it's so much better than collecting fucking antes from everyone every hand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...