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What's up, assholes? Welcome to the 2019 Football Season Game Prediction Contest. I did this a long time ago on HornFans, then for the first time on shaggy in 2014, and now we are here at surly. Thanks to blacklab we are now (again) moving the prediction contest into the automated age.

Do not put your entry in this thread.
Click on the link below to enter your prediction:

CONTEST LINK

2014 winner - laga4
2015 winner - EZ$
2016 winner - knoxtnhorn
2017 winner - EZ$
2018 winner - mdmost

 

Rules:

1. An exactly correct prediction gets 200 points. 2 points are deducted for every point you miss the margin by and 1 point is deducted for every point you miss the total by. 25 points are deducted for not predicting the correct winner (pick a tie and you're automatically docked 25 points). Minimum score is zero. So go ahead and make smartass predictions, no sweat off my back.

Example: You guess Texas 31, Louisiana Tech 13. Final score is Texas 41, Louisiana Tech 7. Your score is 200-2*(34-18)-(48-44)=164.

2. Entries close at 5 minutes before listed gametime on the TexasSports.com team schedule page.

3. All your scores are added up for the season long contest.

4. Tiebreaker for each game is order of entry. The prediction post that is first in the thread among the tied entries wins the tiebreaker.

5. Tiebreaker for season long contest is placement for the final game of the season prediction. Doesn't matter if it's a bowl game, a national semifinal, a national championship game, or the Texas Tech game if we don't make a bowl. Whatever the final game played is, that's the tiebreaker.

That's it. Keep in mind that the tiebreaker and other rules are from last year and they may be tweaked based on the needs for blacklab's coding. Any other necessary rules or rule changes will be made up on the fly. Good luck. Overall season winner gets jack shit from me, but...

6. Optional Prize Money - Posters may choose to pay the $25 entry fee but are not required to do so. Each week the top-ranked poster of those who are in the prize pool will receive $25. At the end of the season the top three overall finishers will receive 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively of the remaining pool.

To enter the paid version paypal $25 to bob at tanmutt.com.
Once you've done that send blacklab a PM so he can mark you as paid in the software.
Please put your surly username in the note at PayPal, probably best to mention the prediction contest as well.

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

B00M

Burnt Ends

Welfare check on Huck? Is his house flooded or something? The Rice score was submitted so quickly it seemed automated. I'm jonesing to see the new standings!

Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly

@blacklab is the one who enters the actual final scores. I say we boycott surly until it's updated.

JBJ

Legacy Members

"Iowas St" is bugging the crap out of me.

DDD Dad

Certifiably Surly
done

Do the standings show the tiebreakers?

Gil Bang

Certifiably Surly

I'm in the top half.  All you people not in the top half can suck it. 

Walden Ponderer

Full Members

We need to stop this contest immediately,  while my total is exactly 666.

NeverMarryAStripper

New Members
4 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I'm in the top half.  All you people not in the top half can suck it. 

So you like being a top better than a bottom?

pyrohornIII

Certifiably Surly

since I screwed up and forgot to save my LSU prediction, can I use my mulligan and guess the bye week?

NorthLoop

Legacy Members

Since I put no money in, I am guaranteed to win the whole thing. 

Bone3421

Certifiably Surly
no

Just curious if im missing something or if the program just goofed but i noticed that out of the people that had 45 pts for texas that the groups that were off by more pts on okie score were ahead of me/huck/ghost who were only off by 3 on okie score 

So a prediction that was 45-37 has more points than my 45-27...same texas score but closer on the okie st score

 

 

 

Modessit

Legacy Members
Just curious if im missing something or if the program just goofed but i noticed that out of the people that had 45 pts for texas that the groups that were off by more pts on okie score were ahead of me/huck/ghost who were only off by 3 on okie score So a prediction that was 45-37 has more points than my 45-27...same texas score but closer on the okie st score  

 

 

 

Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:

 

45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points

 

45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points

 

Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.

 

So:

 

45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(82-66) = 20 pt deduction

 

45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(72-66) = 30 pt deduction

 

 

 

 

 

Bone3421

Certifiably Surly
Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:
 
45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points
 
45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points
 
Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.
 
So:
 
45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(16) = 20 pt deduction
 
45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(6) = 30 pt deduction
 
 
 
Gotcha...gracias

Walden Ponderer

Full Members
On 9/23/2019 at 7:37 PM, Modessit said:

Spread difference counts more (2 pts) than total points difference (1 pt). On your examples above:

45-37 = 8 pt spread and 82 total points

45-27 = 18 pt spread and 72 total points

Actual score 36-30 = 6 pt spread and 66 total points.

So:

45-37 = 2(8-6) + 1(82-66) = 20 pt deduction

45-27 = 2(18-6) + 1(72-66) = 30 pt deduction

b46c32f45e3a9e88b2ec7651a3e3c00f.gif

DDD Dad

Certifiably Surly
On 9/22/2019 at 2:45 PM, blacklab said:

no

So who won the $ for this week?

Modessit

Legacy Members



So who won the $ for this week?


dbbc0690556d5fe1df2130322f2756b8.jpg

DDD Dad

Certifiably Surly
1 hour ago, Modessit said:


 

 


dbbc0690556d5fe1df2130322f2756b8.jpg

 

 

On 9/22/2019 at 2:43 PM, DDD Dad said:


Do the standings show the tiebreakers?

 

On 9/22/2019 at 2:45 PM, blacklab said:

no

Those are in alphabetical order.

Assman

Certifiably Surly
On 9/26/2019 at 6:26 PM, DDD Dad said:

 

 

Those are in alphabetical order.

And my name starts with an "A", so clearly I'm the winner.

Domedriver

Legacy Members

I say we kick Byes ass by eleventy million and twelve points!

hook’em!🤘

0xdeadbeef

Legacy Members

Well F-me.

After a reboot, the contest site wants me to login... but no combination of username or email and password works....  No automated way to reset the pw.

Any chance of whacking the pw on  my contest acct?

 

Modessit

Legacy Members
Well F-me.
After a reboot, the contest site wants me to login... but no combination of username or email and password works....  No automated way to reset the pw.
Any chance of whacking the pw on  my contest acct?
 
It should be the same pw and username as here.

TexMexBuddha

Certifiably Surly

Anyone able to log back in with surly UID and PWD? @blacklab - I know you said PM you. Still the case?

 

Modessit

Legacy Members
Anyone able to log back in with surly UID and PWD?@blacklab - I know you said PM you. Still the case?
 
Just did.

TexMexBuddha

Certifiably Surly
27 minutes ago, Modessit said:
1 hour ago, TexMexBuddha said:
Anyone able to log back in with surly UID and PWD?@blacklab - I know you said PM you. Still the case?
 

Just did.

Thanks. Won't work for me. Will PM BL directly. Cheers.

Poolflood

Legacy Members
4 hours ago, TexMexBuddha said:

Thanks. Won't work for me. Will PM BL directly. Cheers.

you're 65th.  why bother?  lol

Assman

Certifiably Surly

So who won for last week?

TexMexBuddha

Certifiably Surly
you're 65th.  why bother?  lol
I will have you know that garbage TDs got me a perfect 200 one week.

You against random, harmless fun?

Poolflood

Legacy Members
7 hours ago, TexMexBuddha said:

I will have you know that garbage TDs got me a perfect 200 one week.

You against random, harmless fun?

Busting balls

Hook em

bolverk

Legacy Members

Hoping for a blow out. Otherwise, I'm gonna drop several spots.

brojangles2

Legacy Members
(edited)

Link doesn’t look normal to me. The blanks for entry are not there, nor are the previous weeks entries, etc. 

Edited by brojangles2
Was logged out. Disregard 🤦🏻‍♂️

NorthLoop

Legacy Members
On 9/23/2019 at 7:09 AM, NorthLoop said:

Since I put no money in, I am guaranteed to win the whole thing. 

I mean... I wasn't kidding. 

B00M

Burnt Ends
(edited)

Predicted 41-20.. It was 42-24 until the final minute garbage time WVU TD fucked me into 4th in the paying pool.

Edited by B00M

NeverMarryAStripper

New Members

You guys should thank me for always entering the pay pool in these contests because I’m basically just giving you my money. Next year I’m just going to video myself lighting my money on fire and post it.

Gil Bang

Certifiably Surly

the formula works out weird. 

Consider the WV game.  Score 42-31

Here's a couple of the guesses (from results page).  16 is a better  prediction than 17.   He's 4 points closer on the Texas score, and the same on the WV score, but they get the same points?  Seems goofy.  

 

16 dnaguy (41 - 27) 189  
17 Iguana (37 - 27)

189

actual margin = 11
actual total = 73

start with 200, subtract 2 for each point off on margin, 1 point per total off

dna guy
--margin = 14
--total = 68

margin off by 3, total off by 5,   200 - (2x3) - 5 = 189

iguana
--margin = 10
--total = 64

margin off by 1, total off by 9, 200 - (1x2) - 9 = 189

 

 

BigHorn'13

Burnt Ends

Any reason why a prediction wouldn't be saved? Put in my prediction either Thursday or Friday, checked again yesterday when the game ended to see if the scores had been updated yet. Both times my prediction (38-24) showed but now it shows I didn't make one... Not like I've got money on it or anything but still confusing

Wally Fairway

Legacy Members
12 hours ago, B00M said:

Predicted 41-20.. It was 42-24 until the final minute garbage time WVU TD fucked me into 4th in the paying pool.

I feel your pain, I predicted 41-24 - all it took to ruin my day was 2 4th down conversion leading to a meaningless score.
Oh well - always next week.
Fuck OU (still working out all the maths to get my picks in)

Related image

WBT

Legacy Members

Yeah, 7 of us had 42-24.  Should have known Herman can't win a conference game by 3 scores.

BigOrange1

Burnt Ends

top paid entrant on 10/7/2019 wins 90% of the pot right?

Walden Ponderer

Full Members

If I hadn't won week one in the money pool, I'd be more upset about the fact that I've been sucking eggs ever since then.

EZ$

Legacy Members

Just over here lurking in the top 10 (money pool). I’ll be making my move soon boys, soon. 

BigHorn'13

Burnt Ends
On 10/6/2019 at 5:12 PM, BigHorn'13 said:

Any reason why a prediction wouldn't be saved? Put in my prediction either Thursday or Friday, checked again yesterday when the game ended to see if the scores had been updated yet. Both times my prediction (38-24) showed but now it shows I didn't make one... Not like I've got money on it or anything but still confusing

Just "saved" my pick again but I'm putting it here too in case there's any fuckery again. 

Texas 41

Clippy 38

Scheiss Meister

Certifiably Surly

I set up a spreadsheet for my game picks so that I can track my score immediately after the games.  (No, I don't have a life.)  I used the equation in the first post in the thread, and I have a glitch or something that I can't figure out.  All of the points for the games match the website except the points for the LSU game.  The website shows that I got 131 points for that prediction, but my spreadsheet shows 143 points.  Where am I messing up?

Also, when will the ousucks game results be posted?

Scheiss Meister

Certifiably Surly
(edited)

In one cell I calculate the margin deduction, which is the margin difference x 2.  In the case of the ou game and my prediction, that is 2(7-3), or 8.

In the next cell I calculate the total deduction.  In the case of the ou game and my prediction, that is my predicted total of 73 - the actual total of 61, or 12.

In the last cell I calculate the total point as 200 - 8 - 12 - 25 (I picked Texas to win.)  I come up with 155, but the website says 143, a difference of 12 points.  I also get a difference of 12 points for the LSU game, but all of the Texas wins are the same (my calculations and the website).  I know it's probably an order of calculation error on my part, but I'm not finding it.  Thanks for the help, @blacklab.

Edited by Scheiss Meister

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