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What if there is no swing voter

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courtesy of firefox/pocket:

 

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What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is? What if there is no such thing as “the center,” and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats' big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?

To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944?utm_source=pocket-newtab

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good article.  not sure it's good enough to be posted on 4 different threads, but solid read nonetheless.

 

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

good article.  not sure it's good enough to be posted on 4 different threads, but solid read nonetheless.

 

Would you rather we get a link from NowThis?

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33 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

good article.  not sure it's good enough to be posted on 4 different threads, but solid read nonetheless.

 

doesn't appear to have its own thread and doesn't really go in other threads since there's not a "governmental/political theory" thread. 

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Personally, I don't care much about health care, student loan debt, income inequality, or immigration policy. I'd like a national discussion on climate change and gun control, but most Americans are too stupid to discuss those things. 

I care an awful lot about getting rid of the corrupt, immoral, failed businessman in the Oval Office.

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She’s articulating where my theory on voting has been going for awhile.  Swing voters,  to the extent they exist, are swing-y in their decision to vote, not their actual political alignment.

 

You see it in the man in the diner interviews of Obama-Trump undecideds: Once you scratch the surface, they start spouting Fox News talking points.  They aren’t independents: they are GOP voters who find the President’s personal behavior off putting.

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I don't know, but I'm definitely an independent, and I always vote. I feel no loyalty to either party. I think they're both nuts.

Having said that, with maybe one or two exceptions, I have no plans to vote Republican for the foreseeable future.

Edited by Bookman

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1 hour ago, Bookman said:

Personally, I don't care much about health care, student loan debt, income inequality, or immigration policy. I'd like a national discussion on climate change and gun control, but most Americans are too stupid to discuss those things. 

I care an awful lot about getting rid of the corrupt, immoral, failed businessman in the Oval Office.

This is me, but income inequality is a major issue that begets other major issues. And immigration is one of the bedrock principles of this nation. 

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Bottom line is that both theories contribute to election results. Getting people to vote that sometimes don’t is important, and getting true swing voters to swing is important.

I believe there has been a trend in the last few years where the number of swing voters has declined from maybe 20% to perhaps 5-10% max. However that 5-10% swing voters still can decide the election unless there is a major imbalance between getting Democrats to the polls vs Republicans.

Obama inspired a lot of people. Bernie is the only candidate of the Democrats to inspire a lot of people, but Trump on the other side has also inspired a lot of people - both positive and negative.

She is probably right that Democrats hold a significant edge here going into the election. There will be a lot of Bernie bro’s voting and a lot of Trump haters. That would normally carry the Democrats to a solid victory. However Bernie’s far left policies will likely swing a portion of that 5-10% back to Trump, even though that group probably doesn’t like him. They will vote out of fear of the leftist policies.

Net net it will be a close victory for the Democrats, not as close as Bush Gore or Hilary Trump.

If someone other than Bernie gets the nomination, I still think it’s the same result, but instead of higher Democrat turnout, the win will be due to getting a higher percentage of swing voters.

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20 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Would you rather we get a link from NowThis?

Well now, you've really pegged it.

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1 hour ago, Bookman said:

I don't know, but I'm definitely an independent, and I always vote. I feel no loyalty to either party. I think they're both nuts.

Having said that, with maybe one or two exceptions, I have no plans to vote Republican for the foreseeable future.

I always vote as well. All the elections from schools to national. We've lived in many states and I prefer to not be aligned with a party at all but when we moved to Texas, went with the GOP.  But they are gone, baby, gone when it comes to my vote. Spouse is the same.

 

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25 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Trump on the other side has also inspired a lot of people - both positive and negative.

An aside, but do tell how he has inspired people positively.

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21 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

An aside, but do tell how he has inspired people positively.

Apparently he has inspired Jacob Wohl to create a niche in oddly sexual press conferences on front stoops and driveways so there is that.

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2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

She’s articulating where my theory on voting has been going for awhile.  Swing voters,  to the extent they exist, are swing-y in their decision to vote, not their actual political alignment.

 

You see it in the man in the diner interviews of Obama-Trump undecideds: Once you scratch the surface, they start spouting Fox News talking points.  They aren’t independents: they are GOP voters who find the President’s personal behavior off putting.

I agree with that, to a large degree.  Obama brought out the younger voter and when he wasn't on the ballot in the midterms, they didn't show up.  They didn't show up in '16, either and Trump got the downscale whites to show up.

While she is correct about that, she overlooks counties and precincts that voted Obama then Trump.  Sure, there were turnout factors at play but downscale whites were moving toward the Republicans, particularly in the Midwest while at the same time, upscale suburban whites were shifting Dem.  That is more political realignment but there were indeed “swing voters” in the traditional sense.  A theory could be that "swing voters" are swingy for a few elections and then they settle into their new home.  

There are definitely less swing voters than there were 20 years ago.  They key, though, is to motivate your base while not offending the middle.  

It’s interesting because no one really knows what to do with polling anymore and she’s looking at it differently.  If you want a good chuckle, just take a glance that polling page on RCP.  You’ll see two different polls taken at the same time that are wildly different.

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Polarization has a lot to do with the changing definition of swing voters also.  There are fewer people in the middle.  At least it seems that way.  People have been in their corners since November of 2016.

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An aside, but do tell how he has inspired people positively.


I’m not saying positively as in “positive” ways, I’m saying people for him and people against him.

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