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Anastasis

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

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Free fucking money.
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in 2020? NO @ 0.69

Wow. There is a zero percent chance he comes close to winning the popular vote.

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Put $109.65 into Trump winning that has a max payout of 204.47 a few weeks ago. He'll at least buy my ass a nice dinner in November.

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On 4/20/2020 at 3:08 PM, SimonBolivar said:

Put $109.65 into Trump winning that has a max payout of 204.47 a few weeks ago. He'll at least buy my ass a nice dinner in November.

BeautifulAmazingKrill-size_restricted.gi

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4 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

At the end of March it was Trump .51, Biden .39.    Today it is Biden .55, Trump .46

 

Also some states that voted Trump in 2016

Democrat/GOP

PA 65/35

MI 69/31

NC 52/49

WI 61/41

AZ 62/41

FL 52/51

also i saw "trump wins any state he lost in 2016?"

yes - $0.34

no - $0.66

that should give people with knowledge of the electoral map an idea of where things currently stand.  fucking bleak.

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Which Senate race will have the smallest margin of victory? North Carolina at 12 cents seems like a steal. Also, not sure why Montana is also 12 cents. 

Democrat to win Kansas Senate is 27 cents. If Kobach wins the primar, this has serious buy-low sell-high potential.

If you're bargain hunting, Minnesota to vote blue at 76 cents, Arizona 62 cents, and Wisconsin 61 cents. Thank you for the discount. 

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On 6/7/2020 at 12:55 PM, Ted Lange said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

At the end of March it was Trump .51, Biden .39.    Today it is Biden .55, Trump .46

 

Also some states that voted Trump in 2016

Democrat/GOP

PA 65/35

MI 69/31

NC 52/49

WI 61/41

AZ 62/41

FL 52/51

It’s now Biden .57 Trump .43

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

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On 4/18/2020 at 12:59 PM, Anastasis said:

Free fucking money.

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in 2020? NO @ 0.69

Popular vote is now NO @ 0.80 and pretty thin bid up to 0.83.  Still free money to be had. 

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3 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

I am NO biden and NO trump in this market at the moment, but positioned in such as way that I break even if Biden wins and take it in the shorts if Trump wins. I am not selling my Biden NO position on off chance of a lotto ticket outcome if he strokes out before election day and gets replaced by somebody who beats trump. If I was new to the market I would go all in on Trump NO @ 0.57. 

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You can still get 10 cents on a HRC NO for D presidential nomination. Easy money, as the thread title says. 

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Some of these bets err predictions are almost based on whether you think the person will live. Biden receiving the Dem nomination is basically him staying healthy for 2 months.  You can earn 10% interest if that occurs. Or the reverse, you earn 10x if he dies or gets ill enough that he drops out.  Weird market.

 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some of these bets err predictions are almost based on whether you think the person will live. Biden receiving the Dem nomination is basically him staying healthy for 2 months.  You can earn 10% interest if that occurs.

Yep, fees will eat in to that return, but that is correct.  There is also a spread between the price for Dem to win the presidency vs. Biden to win the presidency. 

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Would love to get in on this. How many posters on here have gotten payouts? I know some gambling sites use initial promos to get people locked in for a bit with minimum bank amounts.

apologies if answered, went straight to last page.

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Popular vote is now NO @ 0.80 and pretty thin bid up to 0.83.  Still free money to be had. 
That's free money up to $0.99.

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Would like some thoughts on this market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election
Trump running terrible numbers, can biden do over 10.5% margin?  Spreading across 6-10.5% seems like the smart play, but I think that could do it.  Trump is going to mail it in.  
>10.5 seems like a stretch to me. This country's just so damn partisan right now.

At the same time, I actually think it's better value than spreading. If it's not within five points or so it's because the wheels really fell off.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Would love to get in on this. How many posters on here have gotten payouts? I know some gambling sites use initial promos to get people locked in for a bit with minimum bank amounts.

apologies if answered, went straight to last page.

Predictit is legit. They take a cut off the winnings and a cut of the withdrawal. They also sent you tax forms so you have to pay taxes on it. Haven’t withdrawn any money yes but I have no concerns about getting paid out. 

Edited by Anastasis
No

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i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.

as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).

i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).

i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 

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i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.
as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).
i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).
i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 
I learned this lesson on Doug Jones vs the pedo. Never again.

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also, in the case of the 10.5%, let's look at the numbers...

~130mm people voted for trump/clinton in 2016.  i think that number is closer to 140-150 this year.

if 150mm people vote, biden will have to win the pop vote 83mm-67mm to clear 10%.  of course, that means trump picking up 4mm votes from 2016, but it still seems like a longshot.

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Posted (edited)

Thanks guys, seen this topic and have heard about it quite a bit on Hard Factor podcast. Does it seem like the odds move slowly and have a bit of a lag? I’m approaching it with the thought process the vast majority of people on this are old white guys with money to lose so the odds don’t swing as quick as one may think. At the same time, I don’t think old white guys are online gambling. Any feedback on that? Think that hits the Lad Vegas futures that you may have been referring to.

Edited by StassneyHorn

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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.

as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).

i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).

i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 

These are all good points. I don’t mind letting some money sit if it is good for 20 cents. I’m always looking for a quick flip too, and some fliers. There are lots of opportunities on Election Day as returns come in and there are big swings, but beware that predictit will absolutely bog down orders on election night. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Thanks guys, seen this topic and have heard about it quite a bit on Hard Factor podcast. Does it seem like the odds move slowly and have a bit of a lag? I’m approaching it with the thought process the vast majority of people on this are old white guys with money to lose so the odds don’t swing as quick as one may think. At the same time, I don’t think old white guys are online gambling. Any feedback on that?

There are a lot of lines that are tilted trumpy. 

Edited by Anastasis

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did anyone else follow the roller coaster that was the "will kanye get on the ballot in ohio" market over the past 3-4 hours?

holy shit.

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17 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

did anyone else follow the roller coaster that was the "will kanye get on the ballot in ohio" market over the past 3-4 hours?

holy shit.

America 2020. 

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if 6 months ago, you said, "hey hg, 6 months from today, there won't be any sports on, so you will have money on one thing - will kanye west be on the ballot in ohio?"

my response:

the fuck you Juss Say to me bisH?!? | Make a Meme

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mpu


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