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Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Nice Guy Eddie

  1. On the question about stocks vs bonds, I was under the impression that bonds have severely under-performed their history since 2000. If that is the case, is it correct to use historic bond returns for Monte Carlo simulations? I even wonder if someone continued to buy 5 year CDs starting in 2000 and then kept rolling them over, would that have been a better option that the large bond funds.
  2. I take Trump at his word that he wants to eliminate personal and corporate income tax and replace the revenue with tariffs. The IRS flips to the External Revenue Service. Trump folks point to the pre-1900s where the govt didn’t have income tax sources and spending was relatively low. Public services was almost non-existent except at the local level. to them that was when America was Great.
  3. The director of the national economic council is hanging out in the Situation Room?
  4. If we stick with standard, we would have sunrises close to 4am for cities in the north for a few weeks in June. Most people prefer to sleep in between 6-8a and not have the sun out before then. I also don’t get the idea that people struggle with a one hour change. Go to sleep an hour early tonight. Have an extra shot of caffeine on Monday morning.
  5. Have you checked YouTube or forums about replacing it on your vehicle? I don’t think you were clear about the vehicle model so it’s difficult to find online resources.
  6. That can be solved by moving to Loving County. Duh.
  7. The Ukrainian War has been the most successful and cost effective war for the United States with the exception of the Revolutionary War. We were putting in the final nails into the coffin of the Russian non-nuclear military when Trump took office.
  8. What a flop the Bitcoin strategic reserve has turned out to be. It’s a reserve of the coins that they have confiscated in the past and future. So basically it’s the same as it was yesterday, last year, last five years, etc.
  9. Agree but do you see many (any?) signs that the US stock market is poised to go on a positive run? I feel more comfortable to be fully out of the market today in terms of my retirement plans. Now, I still plan to keep saving ~25% of my wages to retirement and will immediately invest it. And I will slowly start to buy back in with my new cash balance. Maybe upwards of 10% per month. FWIW, I'm in my mid 50s. Sitting out a 25% dump is actually more powerful in the long run realizing than a 25% rise. I feel that the conventional wisdom of timing the market is to convince the masses to not overreact to news. But investment paralysis can cost you. I followed this same strategy of large selling into the COVID news. Did I fully maximize the sells and eventual buys? No but I was better off than just watching. Maybe this will work for me, maybe it won't.
  10. Trump reminds me when one of my dogs will accidentally slap the coffee table with its tail. The other dog will wake up thinking something evil is on the other side of the front door, barking furiously. Dog 1 will join and they start fighting each other because of the adrenaline. All was fine 30 seconds ago.
  11. High quality, limited streaming series > other tv series > movies. Movies are becoming a weak storytelling method. There are exceptions. Out of the movies nominated for best picture, I only caught Dune 2 and Conclave. Both would have been 10x better as a 8-10 episode series.
  12. Trump ruined the USFL because he wanted everyone to think the NFL wanted him as a NFL owner. That was a major part of USFL lawyer, picked by Trump, asking questions of the nfl commissioner, Pete rozelle. Rozelle testified that they never wanted or would want trump as an owner. when the nfl lost the case, and $3 whole dollars, the NY Giants owner literally handed Trump 3 dollar bills. trumps narcissism brought down that league along with some other weak owners.
  13. They’ve all learned to justify his lies by, “what President Trump really means is ________” followed by a slightly more reasonable answer from their pov. Of course they employ the opposite logic with Dems. If Harris says she supports trans rights, it must mean that she will use tax payer funds for gender reassignment surgery for preteens during the school day without parental approval or even notification.
  14. While I agree this is true, CEOs also love to blame the economy for either their mistakes or look for opportunities. They would also be expected to adjust prices even domestic products to maximize profits. Perhaps essential items will raise prices but discretionary prices won’t raise as much.
  15. I recently moved a large percentage of my retirement funds into cash. I would rather risk losing short term profits as opposed to seeing the floor drop out underneath me. I figure that I will soon start dollar cost average buying. i understand the sentiment that you can’t time the market but there are also signs that we’re much more likely to go down than up. If I’m wrong, I won’t lose a minute of sleep.
  16. Agree with this. I could also see Helly sacrificing herself at some point for the others. She was always fine with ending her existence if it got her out of severance. Perhaps the team finds a method to re-engage the overtime contingency for Helly and she goes through integration and then sacrifices herself and Helena, ending the Egan line. But there is also the idea that she may be pregnant now and of course we don't know if there are other Egans. We don't even know who the large, bearded guy is. I believe. And if this all seems unlikely, remember that Milchick is questioning himself. He could easily switch from heel to hero. Or not.
  17. In this video, substitute US economy for white boy, and this is how I feel about things these days.
  18. I watched a video about severance where the author noted that Lumon employees (at work) and innies are often wearing blue. Obviously the white business shirts are an exception. Devon almost exclusively wears blue.
  19. I need to create the IP PIN. Not the one that you create with the online filing services. However I've already filed for the year and I'm going to wait until I receive my refund before creating the PIN, just in case I screw something up.
  20. Sorry if obvious but it does look like each room (and file) are a different unpleasant memory. As much as I hate to think it, I bet that Cold Harbor is related to her miscarriage. Can Lumon have a person go through that type of traumatic event but walk out the door like nothing happened? And sadly Mark is somehow programming the code to make that occur. Perhaps by blocking the scary numbers which relate to emotions. FWIW, I'm in the camp that Gemma never was in a car accident. Not that I can explain how she kidnapped but were Devon and Rickon perhaps involved? Of course if you go down that route, who's to say that Gemma wasn't a willing participant with Lumon before she even met Mark. What's tough for the audience now is that many were probably rooting for happiness between Helly and Mark. Even though Helena is evil in her own way. Not as easy to cheer on Helly and Mark and want Mark to reunite with Gemma.
  21. Perhaps someone should look into military and how they're disabling so many who serve. I know we picture a vet who lost a limb in a war but I'm gathering that the majority do not represent that picture. Of course disability also occurs with non-military as well. You can't tell me that, for some, disability is orchestrated as their retirement pension. A friend of a friend hurt himself playing softball. The guy worked for the USPS. He quietly limited into work on a Monday morning and then "fell" down.
  22. Maybe it’s a red herring but I find Devon’s behavior suspicious. She’s outwardly opposed to severance and lumon but she wanted to kick out the only person trying to help mark end severance. And I don’t believe that mark ever told Devon about Petey showing up reintegrated. Why didn’t he trust her with that? And while not said, who hosted the charades party that Gemma went alone? Devon and Rickon seem to be the best guess.
  23. It makes no sense why we are surrendering to Russia. If you’re talking to friends, especially those on the right, make sure you use the term surrender to them. im unsure that anyone can point to a historical event when the more powerful country capitulates to a much weaker one. If we say it’s because of Russia’s nuclear arsenal that we have to give in, what happens next when they want Poland, Finland or the other nearby states to get out of nato? Do we just agree to it?
  24. Friday was a setup to make Zelenskyy more of the enemy. And it was obvious that Lil Marco definitely wasn’t in on the plan but has since agreed to it. Now when any Euro country decides to back Ukraine, they are simultaneously publicly opposing Trump. This gives Trump cover to punish Europe for waging war, and for the US dropping out of NATO and pulling all US troops out of Europe. i suppose if the Euro powers drop Ukraine support, they will be allowed to temporarily retain a relationship with Trump. At least until trumps next demand. in short Trump is overturning all American foreign relationships since ww2.
  25. For the life of me, I can’t figure out what service playfly actually delivers. They do seem to talk about owning the multimedia rights for some teams. There is zero chance they own that for A&M. The SEC owns the content that has value. I suppose playfly can own the rights to Elko’s weekly tv show and maybe some other original content but that can’t be worth anywhere near that amount. and if for some reason these types of rights are worth that much and A&M is on the leading edge of these deals, that means other schools will ultimately command a much higher multiple. And I scoff at the idea this is guaranteed. It’s guaranteed only as long as playfly outearns that amount.
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