The myth of the market always being efficient and everything being "priced in" is bullshit. My spidey senses kind of feel like the 2-3 week period in Jan/Feb '20 where Covid was no longer a rumor. Wuhan was locked down on Jan 20th, cruise ships were having a hard time docking etc... I was buying puts like crazy and wondering why the fuck the market was just inching up every day. Finally about a month later (feb 24) the dam broke and the markets starting taking a massive shit, and I had the one and only 6 figure trading month of my life.
My decision was not based on the deaths or the lethality of the 'rona as that was still somewhat unclear in late Jan, but merely the fact that the global supply chain was gonna be proper fucked due to an inability to source product from China due to the shutdowns in manufacturing centers. It took well over 2 years for some lead times to return to normal in the markets I was familiar with (industrial automation hardware like robotics, PLCs, sensors, industrial PCs). Those are the same products that will need to supply all of the factories Trump wants over here in the US and a TON of that shit comes out of China, Singapore and Taiwan.
I think there are some similarities with the current stresses that will surface with our supply chain today although not as severe as the covid shock. You can hear it in earnings calls and yet the markets keep creeping up. Algorithms make up 90% of trading these days, and they are gonna do what they do, but I see no evidence to suggest they price in these scenarios. they are too busy bidding up the price of PLTR to a PE of 654.
In any case, I made a good chunk of change on puts in March and April. The last group look like they will expire worthless, but thats why you take profits on the way down. I've been sitting back for the last few weeks, but decided today to jump back in with about 25% of my profits into new puts after the market close today. I'm prepared to dump it all over the course of the next month or two as its house money, so to speak. We haven't solved shit as it relates to tariffs, the guys running the show on our end are fucking morons, prices are going up and layoffs are a coming.