I haven't looked into the methodology or crosstabs on this at all but Michigan is not going to be 3-4 points to the left of PA. Those two states will be within a percentage point of one another. Wisconsin I can see drifting right. It is notably whiter, less educated, and more religious than the other two (and MI slightly more so than PA). But it isn't going to be PA and WI flipping by several points and Michigan holding. If PA goes, MI goes.
Keeping the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold has been key to the run of Democratic election wins from 2022-present and is probably one of the most solid, tested data points you can point to in support of Biden's chances. I'd rather not be in the position to have to count on that but it's clearly proven to be real.
Yeah it was hard for me to take the NYT poll seriously when I saw the numbers with women. Okay sure. I think the total dismissal of the polls is wishful thinking - there's a real malaise that is being captured there; Biden isn't doing anything about it and is running out of time to do so - but shit like that is impossible to take seriously. Adjust the result among women to something more likely to happen and all of a sudden you're well into statistical tie territory and watching turnout, which I think is ultimately where we'll end up.