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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Parker Livingstone. Football - 1 star. Singing Quartet Member - 5 star.
  2. If not the on3 composite ratings, then the only possible choice left in the universe is to rely completely on my ratings without discussion. I rate by how cool the player’s name sounds.
  3. Well, all in all, on paper this seems like a decent team. I’d say Terry did a good job of dealing with the curveballs of the high school recruits. Can’t wait to watch the season. I have mixed feelings. He managed games down the stretch even better than Barnes or Beard, but had a few suboptimal substitution decisions at times, particularly in the tournament. Should be entertaining.
  4. Is Horton good or not? I’ve seen conflicting information.
  5. Right now we are in an inverted yield curve so holding a lot of cash makes sense. But, if rates drop substantially then you wouldn’t be earning much in that cash for three years. If you have a big enough portfolio where that cash isn’t part of the 4% calculation, then you are fine and it doesn’t matter. But if those cash funds are an important part of your portfolio return, then not having a good return on those funds for three years introduces a little bit of risk of running out of money over a full retirement period of day 30 years. One way to deal with that is to invest in individual bonds, or bond funds with a target end date. It eliminates interest rate risk, and allows you to earn a higher interest rate than cash, reducing your long term risk of running out of money. Of course none of this is applicable in an inverted yield curve environment. This three bucket approach of looking at your portfolio helps some people sleep better, rather than just blindly selling bonds or stocks every year. I have something like that. I would typically keep 2 years cash (more right now for many reasons), and a few years in bonds with targeted maturities for years 3-5. The rest goes into stocks/stock funds, intermediate and long term bonds/funds, and alternative assets.
  6. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I went down the 4% rat hole over the last two years, trying to decide how I wanted to structure my portfolio. Like I often do, I ended up combining a few different strategies to address risks and unknowns: 1. Total Returns - don’t ever forget about trying to invest for total returns with a significant chunk of your portfolio. I’ve done Monte Carlo simulations until I’m blue in the face and you need the high returns of stocks to address inflation later in life, unless your living expenses are so low in relation to your portfolio size (<2%) that you can just sit in bonds. Dividend stocks are great for income, but often don’t deliver great total returns so be careful in your use of them. 2. Covering expenses - dividends and interest are great for converting your expenses if you can. A total stock fund kicks off 1.6% and bonds kick off 4%+. If this doesn’t cover it, you have to either sell something or be holding extra cash. Today, it’s easy because cash is earning 5% and bonds are earning 5%+. In the future, it may be tougher if rates drop. In that scenario, adjusting your portfolio to have more income producing assets might be a good idea. How do you decide how much to tune it? Taxes. 3. Taxes - you want enough income to cover expenses and not much more if possible. That way you stay in lower tax brackets and can qualify for ACA subsidies if you need that for healthcare until age 65. This also gives you headroom for Roth conversions. 4. Sequence of Returns Risk - early in retirement it’s a huge risk a few down stock markets and you can be in trouble. Right now the market is rich by historical standards. I use what’s called a bond tent. That’s a fancy name for holding more bonds today than I’ll hold 7-10 years from now, once SoRR has gone away. Those are some of the big issues around getting that 4% liquid. Also, in some periods the 4% rule gets shaky and could drop to as bad as ~3.2% depending on your tolerance for a risk of running out of money above 2-5%.
  7. Sure. I never demanded anyone else on this thread agree with me, but all of the show’s lovers have demanded I Agre with them. So I won’t comment any further.
  8. Yes, all dumb stuff and exactly why I didn’t like it. The frequency and the absurdity of the show just got worse over time. Thanks for making my point.
  9. There have been quite a few stories now about A&M players being baked, such as before class, in the locker room after a game, etc. While drug use is everywhere in college football, including at Texas, I do wonder whether recruits see more prolific use and a more loose and out of control culture at A&M vs other schools. It certainly seems that way. That definitely would attract a certain type of player and repel another type, and explains a lot of the problems they’ve had. I haven’t seen any indication they even realize they may have a problem.
  10. Would you have liked the show as much if an alien space craft with aliens showed up in the middle of season 3?
  11. Nope my criticism was spot on and your inability to see it is what is flawed. Example one of hundreds is the stupid singing good bye on the practice field to the Sound of Music. The show has nice poignant moments like Ted struggling over his son, followed by completely dumb moments like that.
  12. Fair enough. I didn’t realize the thread was solely for people who love the show and have no desire at all to hear other viewpoints. That’s fine. It’s also not surprising given how people are so closed minded these days and want to live in their bubble of common viewpoints. Not saying that is necessarily wrong. Just didn’t realize that applied to this thread. Good luck with your love fest.
  13. Jeff Beck could have been mentioned.
  14. Talking about yourself in 3rd person is the first step to greatness It was Dbeasy’s third step to greatness.
  15. The Atlantic does a good job of describing how the show devolved into blubber. https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2023/05/ted-lasso-season-three-decline/673943/
  16. Yes, I get that him getting the job is ridiculous. I just don’t like how the show bounced back and forth between dumb and not dumb.
  17. I read some of this thread and other comments elsewhere and see that a lot of people really liked this series, the final season, and the finale. I guess it’s because there are a lot of positive messages, feel good moments, and a few funny catch phrases. However, for me I could barely stand it after season 1. I thought season one was pretty good, but in my opinion seasons two and three got so stupid at times that it was very difficult to like it. I have a rule that as long as a show or movie makes it clear from the outset that it’s going to be completely unrealistic and stupid, then I can roll with it. Step Brothers, The Other Guys, etc. But what drives me insane is when a show starts off fairly realistic and then devolves into really dumb and unrealistic plot actions. I know I’m in the minority. Maybe after some time, it will age better with me.
  18. No Page or Hendrix even on the list. Lulz.
  19. I dropped USAA for auto insurance after 43 years. They were 40% more expensive than other choices. However, the industry is in trouble. The reinsurers, who are basically an oligopoly, just bent over the insurers with 50% increases. That, combined with all of the stories about inflation we’ve all seen means the next few years are going to be brutal on the consumer. The only option is to hop carriers every year to minimize the damage. People may want to start demanding the FTC get more aggressive on these oligopolies or it’s going to get way worse: cell service, etc.
  20. Savvy recruiting followers have been saying for over ten years now that the main missing puzzle piece for Texas was elite line recruiting. Texas finally signed an elite OL. Despite years of Top 5 recruiting rankings, Texas failed to sign broad, deep elite DL’s. If they could do it this year, and then keep recruiting well on both lines, they will finally have a real shot at a title again sometime soon. All the other position groups will be fine.
  21. I’m amazed the Astros haven’t found a catcher better than Maldonado. .
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