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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Between the vacations and the three hour shifts that include repeats from the previous day, I think I finally might cut loose from the Ticket. Hell, even the 5-5:30 am time slot, which used to have Top 10, now has bs Fox sports. I’m done.
  2. Anyone still thinking the government has any information whatsoever about aliens just needs to give up. There is clearly nothing we aren’t being told. How do I know this? Because our President has the mental fortitude of an 11 year old girl and would have blabbed all about the aliens by now. Shut down this thread.
  3. So Sean Miller’s name has popped up again. This is not the name I heard and would not excite me at all.
  4. Bohls right now is the useful idiot.
  5. Ha. Just saw that Texas beat A&M. Bawaaaawaaa
  6. Just saw this thread. We have Ring cameras around the house, and it's an endless supply of wildlife entertainment. We live in a normal neighborhood in Leander and we've captured on camera: foxes (right now 2 every night), ringtail cats, cats galore, porcupine, coyotes, rats, armadillos, racoons, squirrels, hawks, owls (big fuckers), possums, some unidentifable creature that seems like a mix between a possum and an armadillo, wild boar, skunks, spiders, and snakes. I grew up hating cats, but watching these little terminators at night has turned me into their biggest fan. They are awesome.
  7. Saw a poll this morning asking Americans about Trump, Canada, and Mexico. There was actually a positive view of how the U.S. is handling Canada. Jesus, I can’t believe how stupid Americans are.
  8. Indiana corn and tomatoes are great. That’s all I got. My family is from there.
  9. This is off the top of my head, but the new compensation rule changes, combined with the entrance into the market by competitors like opendoor, now means that the financing of a house sale or purchase has become much more intertwined into the sale process. So Rocket must believe the future is a package of offerings where the agent functions and financing is more optimized and integrated, like OpenDoor and others like them.
  10. The name I heard two months ago, from a very circuitous route, which we would all be quite happy with, fits Gerry’s criteria. Now I’m getting interested.
  11. Only two on ignore. One is in the midst of a drug fueled mental breakdown and is vomiting all over threads like a machine gun. The other used to post a bunch of pics in series that were rarely if ever funny, which became tiresome. I deal with the rest of this tribe’s idiotic assertions, including my own.
  12. Damn Edmonton is fast. I hate watching them.
  13. Charges dropped you jump to conclusions little bitches.
  14. Jeez the speed at which some people on Surly pronounce the guy guilty and bang the gavel is disturbing. I hope every one of you gets violated by a Williamson County deputy.
  15. I know Immamac doesn't want to hear this, but I've noticed when you go back and look at old threads a ton of content is now gone, even more than in the past. I assume this is because of the changes Immamac made with Twitter and other embedded content? If so, it really sucks. If that's not the reason, then what is? Going back and looking at old content was huge, whether it was for travel tips, a laugh, or something else, it really stinks that this valuable information is gone. And now not being able to copy and share a funny Tweet with friends that was brought to our attention by a posting on the site also sucks.
  16. Here is a simple comparison of a 100% US Total Stock Market Portfolio Performance over 30 years with a 4.5% withdrawal rate. Note that the future expected returns on stocks for the next 10 years is well below this monte carlo simulation. Performance could be way worse. Nevertheless, the portfolio fails 16% of the time. Now, here is a 60% stock/ 40% Total Bond Market Porfolio with the same other parameters. You lose on the upside potential, but your chances of total failure drop by 9%. A 50% Trump Coin and 50% Doge Coin will produce a 100% certainty of success because we live in Idiocracy.
  17. Can you turn your focus to Trump and do something about that? Thanks.
  18. Well there's no value in you and me arguing about it. Your better bet is to go argue with the entire world's financial industry analyses. It's math.
  19. When people ask me how much money is enough that they don't have to worry about retirement money, I always tell them that if their spending needs in retirement are below the level of interest and dividends kicked out of the portfolio every year, then you really don't have to worry too much about retirement money. When you have to rely on a certain return from the portfolio, above interest and divideds, then you tend to worry about your portfolio performance. In living off dividends and interest, in a downturn, dividends may get cut but they don't usually get cut that bad and they recover over time. So the worry there is pretty muted. Of course, what I don't tell them is that as soon as they get comfortable living on dividends and interest, a lot of people want to ramp up their spending
  20. How do you think about carving out porfolio space for these two types of investments? For example, if someone has a 60/40, would you take from both groups, or one of the groups?
  21. @Goredho didn't describe his investment and retirement horizon. If he's at or near retirement the value as a portfolio diviersifier is exactly as I just described, so I'm not quite sure what's not clear. If he's far from retirement, I do think there are some questions about that asset allocation. However, as I said above, the current stock market has a historically high valuation, with a future expected return over the next 10 years as low as 4-5% according to several financial services providers. Will it do better than that? Hopefully. Bonds have a similar outlook for expected return. So going to 60/40 right now isn't a crazy idea for anyone. You could argue it might be a very good idea. Same returns, less risk. I wouldn't do it if I were in my 30's, but if it helps someone sleep at night, or more importantly not panic in a stock crash and sell all their stock, then moderating stock holdings can be a decent idea. I agree with you that bonds are not a perfect hedge against stocks. I specifically used the term "often" and not "always" when describing the lack of correlation with stocks. As you said, for the last few years sometimes they've been moving in a more correlated way because of the economic environment. However, over long time periods it's been shown historically that bonds can help improve portfolio performance. Are there other better ways? Sure. There are hundreds of portfolios you can find on the internet and from financial advisors all claiming superior performance to the 60/40 portfolio, with commodities, smal cap value stocks, TIPs, etc. Historically, the performance of these alternative portfoios is indisputable. It gets tricky when you talk about the future, though. Will all of these alternative portfolios still outperform? How much management is required? How much buying and selling of assets is required? What are the investment management fees? How complicated is the strategy. The beauty of 60/40 is that it's dead easy to manage, cheap, and tax efficient. As a side note, we have a whole generation of investors that have grown up with the mindset that stocks always go up forever and any pain on the downside is relatively short-lived and manageable. We may continue to see that for the next 100 years. Or, we may not.
  22. Sark clearly absorbed massive information from Carroll and Saban. Rodney Terry clearly absorbed nothing from Beard and Barnes.
  23. When you run monte carlo simulations of the potential market returns over various time periods, the fact that bonds often are not correlated with stocks helps reduce the odds of a retired investor running out of money. If a retiree takes out too much money for expenses for many years in a row while the value of stocks are highly depressed, they could run out. But what if you aren't retired or near retirement? For those that are 30+ years from retirement, I typically wouldn't have any bonds, IF you are the type of person that can watch your portfolio drop by 60% and be fine with it. That was a great strategy for the last 20 years. Right now, stock prices are at historical highs and bond rates are decent at 4-5%. So maybe having "some" bonds might make sense, but I wouldn't have much. If you are under 30 years from retirement, small and growing positions in bonds is often recommended to deal with the withdrawal scenarios I described above. For example, if someone plans to retire at 60 and are currently 55, having some bonds is a good idea because a massive market drop with a 10 year recovery period could lead to a person withdrawing at highly depressed stock prices. For me personally, I never held substantial bond positions until I had already retired and rates shot up in 2022. At that point I built my retirement bond portfolio holdings. Why? Because bond rates for the 10 years prior to 2022 sucked. I did hold substantial cash for a variety of reasons.
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