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Posted
On 12/6/2025 at 9:40 AM, Chopper said:

Alright, help me out here. The chart says total returns, not just coupon rate. You get capital appreciation when rates fall, and vice versa. So I don’t think you can automatically reach the conclusion in the response quoted without knowing how much of total return was from capital appreciation and how much was from current interest payments.

 

What am I missing? It’s been a long time since I took the CFA exam. 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/25/2025 at 10:12 PM, ChickenSandwich said:

Did she commit mortgage fraud or not?  Claiming ignorance would be a thing. Lol

Hey man, do you still care BIGLY about mortgage fraud?

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-mortgage-fraud-florida-principal-residences

In 1993, Trump signed a mortgage for a “Bermuda style” home in Palm Beach, Florida, pledging that it would be his principal residence. Just seven weeks later, he got another mortgage for a seven-bedroom, marble-floored neighboring property, attesting that it too would be his principal residence.

In reality, Trump, then a New Yorker, does not appear to have ever lived in either home, let alone used them as a principal residence. Instead, the two houses, which are next to his historic Mar-a-Lago estate, were used as investment properties and rented out, according to contemporaneous news accounts and an interview with his longtime real estate agent — exactly the sort of scenario his administration has pointed to as evidence of fraud. 

...

Mortgage law experts who reviewed the records for ProPublica were struck by the irony of Trump’s dual mortgages. They said claiming primary residences on different mortgages at the same time, as Trump did, is often legal and rarely prosecuted. But Trump’s two loans, they said, exceed the low bar the Trump administration itself has set for mortgage fraud. 

...

Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director who has led the charge, said earlier this year: “If somebody is claiming two primary residences, that is not appropriate, and we will refer it for criminal investigation.”

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
13 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Alright, help me out here. The chart says total returns, not just coupon rate. You get capital appreciation when rates fall, and vice versa. So I don’t think you can automatically reach the conclusion in the response quoted without knowing how much of total return was from capital appreciation and how much was from current interest payments.

 

What am I missing? It’s been a long time since I took the CFA exam. 

I think the guy is just saying bond market is counter cyclical with broader U.S. economy.  The y-axis is rates for the bonds, so the high number now is bad news, is the argument.  Below is S&P v. an aggregate bond over the last 5 years.  With the high rates now, he's saying that's a predictor of U.S. markets about to go down,

 

image.thumb.png.e3a45b8b762bea8a1ca05504fdb5507d.png

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

I'd love to hear about anyone recommended gold and silver this year who hadn't been recommending it for decades.  I'm sure that person exists, but gold bugs are  just like the permabears who have predicted 25 of the last 5 recessions

Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So I have an informal survey question for anyone who has a high dollar financial advisor. Did your advisor move you strongly into gold, silver and/or commodities before the beginning of 2025. 

We are having a debate about how some people seemed to know this year’s performance was coming, while most did not. 

nope. we have a sizable stash of physical gold and silver from family that thought it the only prudent investment for decades upon decades. so we lucked into it. reality is gold sucked ass for thirty years if you bought around the peak in the 80s.

but now that we have it, I don't think the time to sell is now, could be wrong but the macro reasons for holding it are still present and should be for a few years, only SCOTUS re tariffs could have an impact. 

Goldman had a blurb out there that in hindsight allocation of 50% of assets into gold would have been the right move over the last few years.

our advisor is kinda ass.

Edited by scramblyn

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