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House 2018


TahoeHorn

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201 Democrats
Toss Ups
30
Republicans 204
174 12 15 30 12 18 174
218 Seats Needed For Majority
Likely Dem (2R)
 
AZ9 CA24 FL13
IA2 MN7 NH2
NY3 NY18 OR5
PA5 PA8 WI3
Leans Dem (10R)
 
AZ1 AZ2 CA7
CA39 CA49 FL7
FL26 FL27 NJ2
NJ5 NJ11 NV4
PA6 PA7 VA10
Leans GOP (0D)
 
FL16 IA3 KY6
ME2 MI7 MTAL
NM2 NY1 NY11
OH1 VA2 VA7
Likely GOP (1D)
 
AR2 AZ8 CA21
CA50 FL18 GA7
IL13 IL14 MI8
NC9 NC13 NY24
OH12 PA14 PA16
TX21 WA5

WI1

 

If this holds the GOP will barely hold.

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we can start with PA6 I suppose

Quote

While two other Republicans had filed to run in Costello’s 6th District, the incumbent had more than $1.3 million in his campaign account, and had won his previous races with more than 56 percent of the vote. Democrats, who had persuaded businesswoman Chrissy Houlahan to run in the new district, now expect to face a weaker Republican nominee in November.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/25/facing-unfriendly-new-map-pennsylvania-gop-congressman-will-retire/?utm_term=.d9ece36a1749

So, no I don't think PA6 is a guaranteed red seat next year. 

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

we can start with PA6 I suppose

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/25/facing-unfriendly-new-map-pennsylvania-gop-congressman-will-retire/?utm_term=.d9ece36a1749

So, no I don't think PA6 is a guaranteed red seat next year. 

RCP rates PA6 as lean Dem, not safe GOP.  It is red because it is currently GOP.

Edited by TahoeHorn
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Assume Dems take the House in spectacular fashion. Assume GOP keeps the Senate. Do Dems stay energized for another 2 years when realistically, controlling the House slows Trumps agenda but does not advance the Democrats agenda ?

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1 hour ago, swraith said:

Assume Dems take the House in spectacular fashion. Assume GOP keeps the Senate. Do Dems stay energized for another 2 years when realistically, controlling the House slows Trumps agenda but does not advance the Democrats agenda ?

Silly question, Trump will still be president.

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I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

Edited by Bateshorn
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40 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

Have to  sell that click bait. Lots of time between now and Election Day.

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

I think the real challenge they're having is that the gerrymander is broken.  The gerrymander in Texas and pretty much elsewhere is built on the assumption that college-educated whites are going to be a Republican constituency.  If that's correct, then the gerrymander ensures that the Democrats do need to outpoll the GOP by quite a lot in order to take the House.  But if college-educated whites are not part of the Republican coalition anymore, then the gerrymander is broken and we don't know by how much the Dems need to outpoll the GOP in order to take the House.

And right now, we don't have enough information to know.  From the polls, we have some indication that college-educated whites are breaking for the Dems, but I think they'd like to have more evidence of that at the voting booth before making any bold predictions.

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54 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

some indication that college-educated whites are breaking for the Dems

 

9 minutes ago, Washpark said:

retiring

these two potential trends and whatever uncle bobby tri-sticks has up his sleeve make predictions a waste of key-strokes.

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It is not a coincidence that this wave of veterans is hitting at a moment when a five-time draft-deferringpresident occupies the White House and toxic partisanship has ground Capitol Hill to a virtual halt. The candidates are presenting themselves both as a moral rebuke to what they see as Donald Trump’s self-promoting divisiveness and also as a practical solution to the failure of the nation’s highest legislative body to get anything done. In short, the reputation of the national institution with by far the highest approval rating, the military, is being offered as an antidote to the woes of a schismatic president and a Congress whose approval ratings have never been worse.

 

 

“They’re all people who served the country without worrying about who’s a Democrat and who’s a Republican—let’s just get the damn thing done,” longtime national Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said in an interview. “In this Washington, in this divisive, chaotic cycle, you have these people who’ve proven they can rise above party and actually accomplish a mission.”

And out on the campaign trail, many of them have versions of Max Rose’s experience with opening doors, I heard in conversations with a dozen of these kinds of candidates.

Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor running in New Jersey’s Republican-leaning but open 11th District, sees it when she stops in at diners. It usually happens with older men. “I’ll go up and say, ‘Hi, my name’s Mikie Sherrill and I’m running for Congress,‘” she told me, and she’ll gauge mostly disinterest. “And I’ll say, ‘Yeah, you know, I was a Navy helicopter pilot and a federal prosecutor,’ and then I kind of start to walk away—and they go, ‘Wait a minute, wait a minute …’”

In California’s 50th District, made up mostly of San Diego suburbs and held by embattled GOP Representative Duncan Hunter, Josh Butner gets it when he introduces himself as a former Navy SEAL—who’s a Democrat. “That usually gets the conversation started,” he said. “They say something to the effect of, ‘Yeah, we need more Democrats like you.’ We need more people willing to put the country ahead of political parties. We need more folks willing to work with the other side.’”

Here in New York’s 11th, Rose is running in the most concentrated pocket of Trump Country in a very blue city. All of Staten Island and a slice of southern Brooklyn, it’s the only congressional district in the president’s hometown that voted for him. On Staten Island, voting rolls show five Democrats for every three Republicans, but its elected officials (state and local) are split in favor of the GOP. Whiter and more socially conservative than the rest of the city, Staten Island is home to firefighters, police officers, teachers and people who take the ferry to Manhattan. Five miles from the heart of the city, the people here have a chip-on-the-shoulder attitude, according to Kevin Elkins, a lifelong Staten Islander and Rose’s campaign manager, boiling down to: “Screw the system, because they screwed us.” In that way, it resembles the country as a whole—and explains why 56.9 percent of Staten Island voters picked Trump.

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