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kenpom 2024


shadow_operative

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kenpom on his rankings:

 

When I started doing this whole website thing, preseason ratings seemed unattainable. I first did them for the 2010-11 season which seemed like an incredible breakthrough and now they seem even more unattainable with all of the roster movement. Throw in the uncertainty of players using their free covid year and a myriad of pending transfer waivers and this season’s ratings were the biggest challenge yet. 

Like the H.U.M.A.N. poll, the computer has identified a top tier. It’s a clear top five which is the same as the human’s top seven, but excludes Duke and Michigan State. The computer is not impressed with your brand name.

Just how clear is this break? Well, #6 Arizona has a rating closer to #14 than #5. If any of the top five aren’t safe NCAA tournament teams, it would be a catastrophic algorithmic failure. Beyond that, anything is possible. 

What do I mean? Well, when using these ratings it’s important to understand their predictive limits. I’ve always loved this piece from Phil Birnbaum on the limits of baseball predictions. He calls it the “speed of light” because just like you cannot go faster than the speed of light, you can’t do better than the theoretical limit of prediction.

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I don’t know what the speed of light is for preseason ratings, but out-of-sample RMSE for my algorithm is 5.4 for a team’s adjusted efficiency margin.

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 This means that 2/3 of the time a team’s final AdjEM will be within 5.4 points of their preseason AdjEM. 

So, for instance, there’s a 2-in-3 chance that Baylor’s final rating is between 23.13 +/- 5.4 or 17.73 to 28.53. Based on last year’s final ratings, that’s a range between 26th and 2nd. And there’s a 1-in-3 chance they’ll be outside that range! 

Which (a) makes some sense and (b) highlights how silly it is to discuss a team’s future with so much certainty this time of year. Like, I get why people have to be overly-certain in their takes. It’s how society functions. If you don’t play by those rules you end up with a life of coding web sites at home in your jammies. But it’s a misrepresentation of what we don’t know before the games are played.

As far as the guts of my system, I include the last five seasons of team data and two seasons of conference data (using the current season’s membership), plus returning production, transfers, and notable freshmen, along with coaching changes. Independent forecasts are made for offense and defense.

Transfers are a bit of an issue this season. While other systems seem to assume all waivers are going to be granted, the ratings here assume pending waivers will not be granted.

3

In some cases, this makes little difference in the ratings (Efton Reid to Wake Forest, for example), but in cases like Cam Hayes to East Carolina, Jaylon Tyson to Cal, and Aziz Bandaogo to Cincinnati, the difference is significant.

There seems to be a veneer of seriousness from the NCAA regarding waivers for two- (or three-) time transfers these days, so it seems more likely that a waiver gets denied than not. 

Plus the snail’s pace at which the NCAA is ruling on these waivers suggests than at least a few of these decisions may linger beyond the start of the season. Undoubtedly, I’ve missed a few waiver cases and we’ll have a ratings update or two before the season to correct errors and roster changes.

For injury situations, I remove players who aren’t expected to be ready until conference play. This can be a guessing game given increased secrecy by coaches. Notably, Tolu Smith and Zach Freemantle are excluded from the projections.

Other fun notes:

The most bizarre ranking from the computer is McNeese State at #187. It’s not crazy to make McNeese the favorite in the Southland. The bar is pretty low there and Will Wade has brought in enough talent to clear that. But the Cowboys haven’t cracked the top 200 since 2002, so this is a bananas call. On a related note, one of the more intriguing games on opening night is McNeese State at VCU. Two new coaches (and one not actually on the sidelines) with new rosters. You can hardly know what to expect.

The cringiest ranking is Saint Mary’s at #38. The system values transfers these days and “returning everybody” isn’t what it used to be. Saint Mary’s doesn’t add any transfers of note and they don’t actually return everybody. There’s a conference effect in the algorithm as well,

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 and losing BYU from the WCC just makes that effect worse for the Gaels. But Saint Mary’s hasn’t finished lower than 38 since 2015 (save for the covid season) and the H.U.M.A.N. poll (19th) figures to be closer to the truth.

Coaching changes matter in the ratings and I’m assuming Jared Grasso is out at Bryant. It seems like a safe assumption. This costs them a few spots in the ratings and makes UMass Lowell the clear choice for the second-best team in America East. There’s your America East report. 

BYU was picked next to last in the Big 12 by its coaches but is rated 8th in the league here. One thing to keep in mind is that last season’s team posted the best point differential in league play by a team with a losing conference record since at least 1997.

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 All of their conference wins were by double-digits, while all but one of their losses were by single digits. Yes, it was the WCC, but the takeaway is that the Big 12 is not getting a complete doormat this season. It’s also worth noting that UCF had the 7th-best point differential since 1997 for a team with a losing conference record. They were picked last in the league, but they should win a few games.

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1

Well, you can in the short run, but it would be the result of luck and not skill.

2

And that includes seasons back to 2006 when player movement was much more restricted than today. We should expect that error to increase going forward. I’m a supporter of fewer restrictions on player movement for humanitarian reasons, but the fact that it makes the sport less predictable is a bonus.

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Which seems like the way to go since these players aren’t eligible.

4

The conference effect is incredibly useful for the vast majority of teams.

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Which is as far back as my data goes.

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  • 2 weeks later...

SEC is also a very good basketball conference.  Here are current top-40 BPI rankings. 

SEC

  • #3 Tennessee (will be fun to play Barnes)
  • #9 Aggy (will be fun to play those clowns again)
  • #10 Auburn
  • #14 Texas
  • #19 Arkansas
  • #23 Florida
  • #25 Alabama
  • #35 Kentucky (good blue-blood KU replacement)
  • #39 Mississippi State

Big 12

  • #1 Kansas
  • #2 Houston
  • #7 Baylor
  • #18 Arizona
  • #20 TCU
  • #24 K-State
  • #31 Iowa State
  • #34 Colorado

 

Here is the CBS top-25+1 power poll

SEC

  • #10 Arkansas
  • #13 Tennessee
  • #14 Aggy
  • #16 Kentucky
  • #20 Texas
  • #26 Alabama

Big 12

  • #1 Kansas
  • #6 Houston
  • #17 Arizona
  • #18 Baylor

It isn't going to be a big step down at all.  There will be just as many top-tier games. What we will miss are those blood bath games on the road against a top-50 team like Okie State that are so freaking tough.

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Here is another more extended power poll of what the full conferences look like with next year's moves. And I forgot that Beard is now at Ole Miss.  That will be yet another fun game to add in future years.  

Average

  • SEC - 38.4
  • Big 12 - 42.2

Median

  • SEC - 36.5
  • Big 12 - 43.5

Big 12

  • #1 KU
  • #6 Houston
  • #14 Arizona
  • #16 Baylor
  • #30 K-State
  • #31 TCU
  • #38 Iowa State
  • #43 Colorado
  • #44 Texas Tech
  • #49 Cincinnati
  • #53 BYU
  • #55 Utah
  • #61 Oklahoma State
  • #69 Arizona State
  • #80 UCF
  • #85 West Virginia

SEC

  • #10 Tennessee
  • #13 Arkansas
  • #15 Texas
  • #17 Aggy
  • #18 Kentucky
  • #19 Alabama
  • #26 Auburn
  • #34 Mississippi State
  • #39 Missouri
  • #41 Florida
  • #47 Oklahoma
  • #59 Georgia
  • #63 Vanderbilt
  • #70 LSU
  • #71 Ole Miss (They will soon be top-25 with Beard)
  • #73 South Carolina
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the SEC looks to be really good this year, and with chris beard joining the conference that’s another team you can add to the “good teams” list, but it will be a noticeable step down in competition. the top of the league will still be really good most years, but the middle and bottom won’t be, and we won’t be playing everyone home and away. there will be years where most/all of our games against the top teams are at home, and where we play more weak teams than strong ones.

here’s the kenpom conference ratings over the last five years + this year:

 

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the big xii has been *much* tougher than the sec over the last decade or more, and depending on scheduling we could conceivably be facing some of our easiest schedules in years going forward.

otoh, if all of the good young coaches in the league manage to stay at their schools and/or in the league and/or out of trouble with the ncaa, then the SEC definitely could be an emerging cbb power conference.

Edited by shadow_operative
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Last year was the first time I actually set out to understand all the Kenpom stuff, and it came in handy filling out the first round of my bracket with teams I'd never seen.

But it also includes hard hitting analysis like this.  We've officially reached and surpassed Peak Jalen, but it's offshoot Jaden is fast catching up.

image.png.496b25c362b39412a72110a7b11a2157.png

https://kenpom.substack.com/p/we-have-reached-peak-jalen

 

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14 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Last year was the first time I actually set out to understand all the Kenpom stuff, and it came in handy filling out the first round of my bracket with teams I'd never seen.

But it also includes hard hitting analysis like this.  We've officially reached and surpassed Peak Jalen, but it's offshoot Jaden is fast catching up.

image.png.496b25c362b39412a72110a7b11a2157.png

https://kenpom.substack.com/p/we-have-reached-peak-jalen

 

great stuff.

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kenpom predictions and results this year:

 

UIW- kp: 86-54, final: 88-56

Delaware State: kp: 86-57, final: 86-59

Rice: kp: 86-68, final: 80-64

Louisville: kp: 80-65, final: 81-80

UCONN: kp: 75-68, final: 81-71

Wyoming: kp: 79-63, final: 86-63

Texas State: kp: 76-59, final: 77-58

 

Accuracy: 

 

Texas +2, UIW +2

Texas dead on, DSU +2

Texas +6, Rice +4

Texas +1, Louisville +15

Texas +3, UCONN +6

Texas + 7, Wyoming dead on

Texas +1, Texas State -1

 

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On 12/4/2023 at 11:40 AM, shadow_operative said:

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kenpom has us going 6-10 between bookended wins for a very depressing 8-10 conference slate, and probably a bubble team depending on the conference tourney.

Yeah I said 9-9 a week ago.  Not sure we can get there after what I saw last night.  Disu is good but I don't see him fixing the overall shitty guard play.   Hunter has to improve or we're going to miss the tournament. 

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our AdjD being at no.50 is honestly shocking. i would have found it shocking at the end of the year, after 18 games in the big xii. to be there after just 8 games, with six of those games coming against teams ranked between 166 and 335, that’s a glaring red flag that should be major cause for concern. the big xii is once again the best league in the country, and we won’t even be competitive 2/3 nights if we don’t find a way to defend much, much better than we have to this point. only k state, osu, and wvu are ranked lower in AdjD than Texas.

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Edited by shadow_operative
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kenpom’s four factors are a useful tool when trying to compare and/or separate teams, and in fact historically the four factors have been a good indicator of tourney success, ie if you’re stuck on picking a 7 vs 10 or a 4 vs 5 maychup, the team with the better four factors ratings is a good bet to win. here are the four factors ratings for Texas, and every BXII team currently ranked ahead of Texas in kenpom:

 

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we opened the season at #16, and with two games remaining in the non con we’re at #37. that’s essentially a free fall for a team that’s 9-2. there is no sugar coating this, there are no legitimate excuses- the performance thus far has been painfully, predictably subpar, and the most trusted computer ranking system around forecasts the following for this Texas team:

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that’s a 4-10 stretch from january 20th - march 9th. if this happens then we don’t even sniff the tournament barring a particularly weak field.

i know that this forum is full of rodney terry zealots who take any and all fair criticisms of his team as some sort of wild personal attack on the man/themselves, but the analytics are bearing out what any rational person could foresee: coaching matters, and a guy who’s spent 27 years proving that he isn’t up to snuff as a D-1 HC is going to continue that trend, especially in a league like the Big XII. if we do not get markedly better across the board then we are going to be a double digit seed, if not an NIT team. the obvious is happening. it sucks, but it’s happening. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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