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I bought on eBay in 2014 for a Tuesday pass and it cost me $300. It has gone nuts in the last decade. If you make the commitment to go you’ll get in for much cheaper from people outside the gates than you will buying from the brokers online. 

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On 4/6/2024 at 1:42 PM, LTtxfan said:

2024 Masters: Hole-by-hole guide to Augusta National

https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/2024-masters-hole-by-hole-guide-to-augusta-national/?n=@

The par-4 11th historically has been the toughest in relation to par, playing to a 4.303 average, while the par-5 13th is the easiest in relation to par, playing to a 4.775 average. 

As is common, there have been changes to Augusta National since last year’s Masters. The layout will play to 7,555 yards this year after No. 2 was lengthened 10 yards, extending the downhill par 5 – the longest hole on the course – to 585 yards. 

I see 1956 on that site was the high average per hole on a lot of holes.  I wonder if there was awful weather or just awful golfers. 

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25 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Guess Friday they will have groups starting on both holes #1 and holes #10 

Thankfully this is a small field event, but getting 36 in on one day will be a challenge - I'm thinking that if Thursday is a complete washout then they will likely not get to a cut until Saturday when they complete 36 holes; which complicates things because you can't just keep them going after they finish 36 because you have to cut and regroup those who make the cut. 
Also, Tiger pushing himself to 54 holes in 2 days seems like a strain on his physical limitations. I would like to see him make the cut, even though it means more coverage of Tiger, but if he is anywhere near contending then it makes the excitement level skyrocket

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Some notable groupsand tee times:

10:18 a.m./1:24 p.m.: Hideki Matsuyama (Japan), Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas

10:30 a.m./1:36 p.m.: Jon Rahm (Spain), Matt Fitzpatrick (England), Nick Dunlap

10:42 a.m./1:48 p.m.: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy (Northern Ireland), Xander Schauffele

10:54 a.m./2:00 p.m.: Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland (Norway), Cameron Smith (Australia)

1:24 p.m./10:18 a.m.: Tiger Woods, Jason Day (Australia), Max Homa

1:36 p.m./10:30 a.m.: Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim (Korea)

1:48 p.m./10:42 a.m.: Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg (Sweden), Sahith Theegala

2:00 p.m./10:54 a.m.: Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood (England)

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Was really hoping that Rory would be with Phil, Brooks, Sergio or DJ. 
And seeing the pairings, I am disappointed every year that Patty Reed and Willet won hear because it means they get to keep coming back; it is like the ticket lottery - disappoints me every year.
 

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Posted (edited)

Taking my first stab at a Masters pool and Tier 5 and 6 feel like such a crap shoot. I don't like any of these guys to make the cut. Especially if the weather is shit on Thursday and Tiger and Phil have to play 36 on Friday.

image.png.1fe75b92c377f547009ca6a6e0fc3611.png

image.png.f0e3087479ef639aa57c678ceece86e5.png

Maybe Zach Johnson in 6. I feel like he's got a decent chance to make the cut.

Edited by The Royal We
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Rose seems like the safest bet in Tier 5 but he hasn’t played in a while and his form isn’t great. 

Sepp or Glover would be my Tier 6 pick. 

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32 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Taking my first stab at a Masters pool and Tier 5 and 6 feel like such a crap shoot. I don't like any of these guys to make the cut. Especially if the weather is shit on Thursday and Tiger and Phil have to play 36 on Friday.

image.png.1fe75b92c377f547009ca6a6e0fc3611.png

image.png.f0e3087479ef639aa57c678ceece86e5.png

Maybe Zach Johnson in 6. I feel like he's got a decent chance to make the cut.

image.png.68e34d78fb41f7d21af4f94ad8b4c95a.png

First pass.

It's hard not to take Scottie in the A group, but surely there's no way he can continue the torrid pace he's been on. Right?

This article gave me ideas for the 4, 5, 6 guys. https://golf.com/lifestyle/2024-masters-sleeper-picks-break-out-augusta-national/

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Posted (edited)

well it was a fun day today. First time and fairly impressed with everything except the traffic - both car and foot. Took almost an hour from leaving the hotel (1 mile away) to get parked. Then at least 45 minutes to get in the gate. It was great to walk parts of the back nine before any golfers showed up. Then about an hour after lunch to hit merchandise stuff.  It was a little difficult at first to get orientated. Obviously walking looks totally different that what you see on TV. Looking at the map and the course I still mis identified a few holes the first time. I wanted to watch a little of the practice tee but the stands are way back from the practice area. If I get lucky again and get the same hotel I am walking down Washington instead of driving. The traffic situation really can't be fixed unless you want a huge road that gets used one week of the year.

Edited by AUinHsv
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47 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

When is Mere’s due date?

Cant fathom Scottie would bail if he’s on the leaderboard going in to the weekend hit apparently that’s what he’s going to do if she goes in to labor.

Burns too.

 

(SIAP)

They said 3 weeks on Live From. Burns’ wife is like ten days. 

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2 hours ago, The Royal We said:

Taking my first stab at a Masters pool and Tier 5 and 6 feel like such a crap shoot. I don't like any of these guys to make the cut. Especially if the weather is shit on Thursday and Tiger and Phil have to play 36 on Friday.

image.png.1fe75b92c377f547009ca6a6e0fc3611.png

image.png.f0e3087479ef639aa57c678ceece86e5.png

Maybe Zach Johnson in 6. I feel like he's got a decent chance to make the cut.

I don't hate Keegan in the 5 tier and I'd just take a past champ for 6 like Schwartzel, Bubba or ZJ.

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9 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I don't hate Keegan in the 5 tier and I'd just take a past champ for 6 like Schwartzel, Bubba or ZJ.

Probably good plays. I think I'll see how many people end up in this pool and if it's smaller I'll go with safer plays like Keegan and Charl. If it gets pretty big then I might need to swing for the fences with riskier plays like An / Dunlap.

Thanks!

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well it was a fun day today. First time and fairly impressed with everything except the traffic - both car and foot. Took almost an hour from leaving the hotel (1 mile away) to get parked. Then at least 45 minutes to get in the gate. It was great to walk parts of the back nine before any golfers showed up. Then about an hour after lunch to hit merchandise stuff.  It was a little difficult at first to get orientated. Obviously walking looks totally different that what you see on TV. Looking at the map and the course I still mis identified a few holes the first time. I wanted to watch a little of the practice tee but the stands are way back from the practice area. If I get lucky again and get the same hotel I am walking down Washington instead of driving. The traffic situation really can't be fixed unless you want a huge road that gets used one week of the year.

Augusta is about the same size as Lubbock. And they can’t widen that road in front of the club, it’s already narrow.
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11 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Why would you even consider driving if you’re staying only 1 mile away?

I wouldn't do it the second time. You learn the hard way. Washington Road did not look like the best place to walk. Kinda like hiking in a field

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2024 Masters Round 1 tee times (ET)

Tee No. 1

7:40 a.m. – Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson (Honorary Starters)
8:00 a.m. – Erik van Rooyen, Jake Knapp
8:12 a.m. – Jose Maria Olazabal, Taylor Moore, Santiago de la Fuente
8:24 a.m. – Danny Willett, Austin Eckroat, Stephan Jaeger
8:36 a.m. – Charl Schwartzel, Luke List, Christo Lamprecht
8:48 a.m. – Gary Woodland, Thorbjorn Olesen, Bryson DeChambeau
9:00 a.m. – Zach Johnson, Corey Conners, Jasper Stubbs
9:12 a.m. – Sergio Garcia, Chris Kirk, Ryan Fox
9:24 a.m. – Lucas Glover, Byeong Hun An, Harris English
9:36 a.m. – Phil Mickelson, Sepp Straka, Tony Finau
9:48 a.m. – Nick Taylor, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley
10:06 a.m. – Patrick Cantlay, Min Woo Lee, Rickie Fowler
10:18 a.m. – Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas
10:30 a.m. – Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Nick Dunlap
10:42 a.m. – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele
10:54 a.m. – Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith
11:06 a.m. – Lee Hodges, Adrian Meronk, Grayson Murray
11:18 a.m. – Camilo Villegas, Denny McCarthy, Cameron Davis
11:30 a.m. – Mike Weir, Ryo Hisatsune, Neal Shipley
11:42 a.m. – Vijay Singh, Si Woo Kim, Emiliano Grillo
11:54 a.m. – Fred Couples, Adam Hadwin, Stewart Hagestad
12:12 p.m. – Justin Rose, Eric Cole, Peter Malnati
12:24 p.m. – Akshay Bhatia, J.T. Poston, Shane Lowry
12:36 p.m. – Bubba Watson, Nicolai Hojgaard, Adam Schenk
12:48 p.m. – Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama
1:00 p.m. – Keegan Bradley, Matthieu Pavon, Tyrrell Hatton
1:12 p.m. – Adam Scott, Sam Burns, Cameron Young
1:24 p.m. – Tiger Woods, Jason Day, Max Homa
1:36 p.m. – Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim
1:48 p.m. – Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala
2:00 p.m. – Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, The Royal We said:

image.png.68e34d78fb41f7d21af4f94ad8b4c95a.png

First pass.

It's hard not to take Scottie in the A group, but surely there's no way he can continue the torrid pace he's been on. Right?

This article gave me ideas for the 4, 5, 6 guys. https://golf.com/lifestyle/2024-masters-sleeper-picks-break-out-augusta-national/

I went the other way - it is hard not to pick Scottie, so I did. My picks are from the pick'em on the Masters website - where are y'all playing?Screenshot2024-04-10081630.thumb.png.df315825f758224585b06bb8d41de65e.png

 

You can play in a Surly group here

https://www.masters.com/en_US/fantasy/join.html?leagueId=43725&leagueJoinToken=3f86cf5335

Edited by Wally Fairway
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14 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

When is Mere’s due date?

Cant fathom Scottie would bail if he’s on the leaderboard going in to the weekend hit apparently that’s what he’s going to do if she goes in to labor.

Burns too.

 

(SIAP)

from twitter

image.png.52e00f49ca7304ad56d520a0b8170c5f.png

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9 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I went the other way - it is hard not to pick Scottie, so I did. My picks are from the pick'em on the Masters website - where are y'all playing?Screenshot2024-04-10081630.thumb.png.df315825f758224585b06bb8d41de65e.png

 

You can play in a Surly group here

https://www.masters.com/en_US/fantasy/join.html?leagueId=43725&leagueJoinToken=3f86cf5335

Runyourpool.com is the site my buddy is using. They appear to group players by the Vegas odds, so all of your picks would be in group one and you could only use one of them. 

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Gotta love Brooks response when asked if someone could shoot a 59 at AGNC this week

I mean, now, anything’s attainable. But, yeah, if you want to go play the members tees and maybe play like 15 holes, yeah, I could do that.

With the course record being 63, it’s somewhat unclear why the reporter thought a soft golf course would be enough to result in a score four shots better than the record

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One guys analysis, that I saw linked on anther site (so I'm "stealing" it)

https://www.golfwrx.com/736980/the-22-players-who-can-win-the-masters-3/

Quote

OPINION & ANALYSIS

The 22 players who can win the Masters

bde8f3a9897aa6fc8a96a67997323b64?s=46&d=

Published

 2 days ago 

on

 Apr 8, 2024

By

 Rich Hunt 
Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.

This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.

Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.

Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935 

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)

Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas

I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:

Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:

Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka

Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor

Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.

I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.

That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)

Here’s my personal top-10 picks:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)

 

 

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