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Darwin, the Evolution of Football and the Big XII


sushihorn

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47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only bone to pick - not all organisms evolve.  See our neighbors in Norman and College Station.

Fair.  Evolution occurs within populations, not individuals.  Extreme environmental pressures accelerate the process for the population by killing of those who fail to adapt faster.  You're absolutely right about aggy and Okie but unfortunately there's little pressure on their fan bases to evolve.  One big reason I think aggy fans loved the SEC move so much was they got to hang with the "big dogs" (which are really more like Brontosauri) in a lower pressure SEC environment.  Change is hard and painful.  Sometimes it's easier to run away and hide.

edit: On further reflection, meth might be an adaptation to trailer park obesity.

Edited by sushihorn
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College football used to be Jimmies and Joes, where the pros were Xs and Os.

No longer that way at the highest levels. You got to have Jimmies and Joes that can incorporate high level Xs and Os into their game. 

You got to have smart players.

Thank God we aren't Alabama.

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2 hours ago, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

The problem is that Kirby is now in competition with the NFL for coaches with solid spread offense resumes.  And the pro's overreaction has them handing out HC jobs to guys that might credibly be OCs or QB coaches.

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The success of Mayfield and Mahomes early likely emboldened the hire of KK. The NFL has evolved into a more of a passing league. Spread formations, and no huddle are becoming the norm, years after Marv Levy introduced it. That's big 12 ball.  Remember when QBs were not taken seriously because they were hardly under center?

Saban runs an  1970s NFL type approach on O and D. He does it well; God knows he's got all the talent to run Lombardi plays.  But the future is what's being played in the big 12 and Clemson. You can load up the box to stop a run all day long. But defending a relentless all-out pass attack ?  That's another story. Different type of training and player and scheme needed to defend that.  I expect saban to adjust or fade away. 

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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Fair.  Evolution occurs within populations, not individuals.  Extreme environmental pressures accelerate the process for the population by killing of those who fail to adapt faster.  You're absolutely right about aggy and Okie but unfortunately there's little pressure on their fan bases to evolve.  One big reason I think aggy fans loved the SEC move so much was they got to hang with the "big dogs" (which are really more like Brontosauri) in a lower pressure SEC environment.  Change is hard and painful.  Sometimes it's easier to run away and hide.

edit: On further reflection, meth might be an adaptation to trailer park obesity.

Usually its sports metaphors used to explain science. This time its science metaphors to explain sports. Which is fine, but lets make sure the science is correct.

 Extreme environmental pressures accelerate evolution by killing off at higher rates individuals who are already poorly adapted to the new environmental pressures.

 

Good read however. I enjoy your football posts.

 

 

 

 

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One of the key tells to the "awesome SEC" myth is QBs.  It deserves it's own thread but basically they're not that good, don't get developed at the HS level in SEC country and don't get good coaching at the college level.  With the increasing importance of QB play as the spread proliferates, this is a huge weakness.

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At what point do NFL defensive coaches start looking to pick the brain of coaches like Jon Heacock at ISU and Todd Orlando for some spread busting tips. Heacock in particular has done a pretty good job coordinating defenses against the Air Raid philosophies in the Big 12 with what probably would be described as average talent. What they did to WVU this year was pretty amazing (they were fairly effective against Grier last year as well) and ISU probably did the best job of Big 12 teams in defending OU this year., Orlando did some great things last year (defending OU and OSU) and had some moments this year, though his team wasn't nearly as consistent and gave up lots of big plays. Surprised it hasn't happened yet...they seem to want to all get to the Lincoln's and Kliff's of the world, but not look at the counter strategy. 

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I think Mack's biggest mistake was deciding to change TEXAS' offensive identity after 2009.  Vince had laid the foundation and Colt followed suit.  The model and style of play was working.  When Colt got hurt Mack decided he wanted to change the style to be big and run the ball like Bama.  That decision was a step back.   It may not be popular but Harsin was a step back.  Then we went even further back when Texas went to Watson who tried to tweak an old outdated west coast offense.  Tom Herman is what we needed.  He may not be the best HC in college football yet but his offensive philosophy is clear and without question his identity is what the future of college football will be.      

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23 hours ago, Zavala said:

College football used to be Jimmies and Joes, where the pros were Xs and Os.

No longer that way at the highest levels. You got to have Jimmies and Joes that can incorporate high level Xs and Os into their game. 

You got to have smart players.

Thank God we aren't Alabama.

Si senor.

Remember the Georgia fans talking about how fast and physical their WRs were going into the Sugar Bowl?  They were mostly correct but they were focused on factors that were less important for on-field success.  Ability to make the right read (and the same one as your QB) on an option route, reliability on 3rd down, making tough catches in traffic and securing the ball when a safety comes flying into your chest, ability to use your body to shield off the defender.  Those are all important and tougher to measure than simple speed.

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17 hours ago, sushihorn said:

One of the key tells to the "awesome SEC" myth is QBs.  It deserves it's own thread but basically they're not that good, don't get developed at the HS level in SEC country and don't get good coaching at the college level.  With the increasing importance of QB play as the spread proliferates, this is a huge weakness.

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

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On 1/9/2019 at 10:53 AM, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

Hmmm... Noted, I will give this more attention pertaining to next hire; seeing if it veers away from traditional SEC offenses...

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5 hours ago, Whatever said:

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

...and the two who didn't both played in the dawn of time (at least as regards offensive innovation as per this conversation).

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11 hours ago, Whatever said:

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

 

5 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

...and the two who didn't both played in the dawn of time (at least as regards offensive innovation as per this conversation).

Really good points.  I hope you don't mind if I incorporate them into the SEC QB analysis that I'm working on.

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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

The Russian military would refer to it as maskirovka: camouflage and deception to create confusion and hesitation in the mind of the enemy.

Specifically it includes feints and bluffs, blitzes from all angles, including delayed blitzes and zone blitzes, disguised coverages that might be cover 2 man, cover 2 zone, cover 6 cloud looks or even deep quarters.  The coverage might even be one thing on half the field and something different on the other half.  There's a reason I compared it to a Chinese Fire Drill in a thread right after the Sugar Bowl.  You can click on that link for a breakdown of the first defensive series.

Orlando uses hybrid players all over the field to facilitate the flexibility needed to use player so far out of what would normally be their position.  In the Sugar Bowl he dropped a DE into deep robber coverage, like the MLB in a Tampa 2 look. 

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13 hours ago, Parliament said:

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

Read zones are the bread and butter, but they don't always play it like a split-field Cover 2.

They are really good at mixing coverages against trips and dropping into 8-man coverage differently.

They move and roll their safeties a lot, and this gives several advantages: hiding coverages, bringing an extra defender into the box from several places, safety blitzes; but probably most importantly for the modern spread is that you run a good chance of moving a safety right into an RPO pass and blowing it up.

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On 1/10/2019 at 9:53 AM, PencilPusher said:

At what point do NFL defensive coaches start looking to pick the brain of coaches like Jon Heacock at ISU and Todd Orlando for some spread busting tips. Heacock in particular has done a pretty good job coordinating defenses against the Air Raid philosophies in the Big 12 with what probably would be described as average talent. What they did to WVU this year was pretty amazing (they were fairly effective against Grier last year as well) and ISU probably did the best job of Big 12 teams in defending OU this year., Orlando did some great things last year (defending OU and OSU) and had some moments this year, though his team wasn't nearly as consistent and gave up lots of big plays. Surprised it hasn't happened yet...they seem to want to all get to the Lincoln's and Kliff's of the world, but not look at the counter strategy. 

Once the league has to respond to fans complaining about defenses getting torched every week by the new wave offenses.  There are just a few now.  I suspect it will take 3-4 years to reach critical mass on the offensive side.  Then a couple of years before 1-2 teams take the obvious counter-measures.  And another few years for it to become a trend. 

Perception always lags reality.  The broader and dumber the market, the longer it takes - contrast the stock market with residential real estate. 

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5 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Sorry if this was covered but who are the “air raid “coaches left in this league?

Riley - definitely

Gundy - yes but loves him some QB run

Brown - I have not watched Troy and don’t remember what he ran at Tech

Yost, Tech's new OC, is a Raid Bro.

https://www.lubbockonline.com/news/20181201/new-coordinator-david-yost-takes-his-turn-with-texas-tech-offense
 

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22 hours ago, Machinator said:

That is a great article and deserves its own thread.  Tons of grist for the offseason discussion mill.  And it's going to be a LONG offseason.  Summary thesis is very encouraging.
 

Quote

 

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers have built a Big 12-style program that has toppled Alabama and changed the game for top programs that want to win a championship.

It’s actually a game that’s given Saban’s Alabama trouble throughout their run. The Tigers ran a HUNH spread offense and a defense fostered to survive in the HUNH spread era whereas the Tide were playing Saban’s preferred style that’s been tweaked to handle the new era but isn’t born of it. This same style gave Alabama trouble against Texas in the 2009 Championship game that started the Tide roll, against the better Gus Malzahn teams at Auburn, against the Utah Utes in 2012, Johnny Manziel in 2011 and 2012, and the Hugh Freeze Ole Miss Rebels before they collapsed.

It also gave them trouble against Clemson, who paired it with an elite defense and gave them a couple of close games in 2015 and 2016 before finally blowing the Tide away in 2018. Now Clemson is established with a pipeline of elite recruits rolling through an under-regarded S&C program and a freshman phenom at QB in Trevor Lawrence who has at least two more years to lead the Tigers.

 

Texas isn't there yet but getting closer.  A lot of those elements should look familiar to Longhorn fans...

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1 hour ago, ClubWhatever said:

Where do we get a DL full of first round picks?

The Boyd article makes a good point about that too. Take a look at how many RS freshmen played valuable minutes in the Sugar Bowl after lifting weights and focusing on changing their body during their first year out of high school.  

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The 2018 Clemson DL did not spring into existence with Dabo commanding "fiat lux!" and waving his hands.  It was the product of years of work by the staff.  Take a look at the 2015 team that made it to the CFP finals.  Starters were:

DE Dodd: 3-star JUCO equivalent from NQ/greyshirt mill Hargrave in 2012 class; 2nd rounder in 2016 NFL draft

DT Watkins: #8 DT in 2012 class, 4 stars; 4th rounder in 2017

NT Reader: converted OL; #18 OG from 2012, 4 star OL; drafted 5th round in 2016

DE Lawson: 4-star JUCO equivalent from Hargrave (again); only 1st rounder from this group

 

The 2015 Clemson DL played very well and helped set the table for the 2018 crew.  They made Clemson a destination for top D-Line recruits.  They were the result of good recruiting but nothing like what we've seen the last couple of years.  That is definitely a model that 2019 Texas can aspire to.

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46 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

 

The 2015 Clemson DL played very well and helped set the table for the 2018 crew.  They made Clemson a destination for top D-Line recruits.  They were the result of good recruiting but nothing like what we've seen the last couple of years.  That is definitely a model that 2019 Texas can aspire to.

Having back to back big 12 dline of the year is a good selling point. Just need some to start getting drafted.

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On 1/12/2019 at 1:25 PM, sushihorn said:

Once the league has to respond to fans complaining about defenses getting torched every week by the new wave offenses.  There are just a few now.  I suspect it will take 3-4 years to reach critical mass on the offensive side.  Then a couple of years before 1-2 teams take the obvious counter-measures.  And another few years for it to become a trend. 

Perception always lags reality.  The broader and dumber the market, the longer it takes - contrast the stock market with residential real estate. 

Nice answer....clearly an arbitrage opportunity for a forward thinking football operation (which for Lone Star State NFL fans, neither the Cowboys or Texans are unfortunately).

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