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Fire Shaka Smart


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17 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

Reading comprehension fail. I am talking about CDC's 'beliefs' about the quality of his Shaka replacement. If the guys he knows he can sign don't give him confidence that they will be worth all the buyouts, then he might very well sit it out and see what the landscape is like in a couple of years without being so upside down. For instance, let's say Buzz Williams is the only guy who is listening to us and CDC has him at #5 or 6 on his list and has concerns that he will out-perform Shaka. Does he fire Shaka now or let Buzz go to aggy? I think Beard is likely our top target and he going to get a huge raise this year from someone. If he has Beard all but signed on the dotted line, is CDC really going to pass on the deal just because Shaka didn't get hired by Wake Forest?

If Beard is all but signed, he'd do it. 

If Buzz is #5 on the list, he'll let him to go Aggy.  Ain't worth all that money for your 5th choice. 

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15 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

So you think we’ll pay a $13 million buyout to Shaka (over 4 years), plus buyout Shaka’a Assistants, pay a $6 million buyout to Beard immediately, pay his assistants, and pay Beard a salary that’s enough to get him to leave Lubbock (like near $5 mil per year)? That’s like $16 million in one year on coaching, when our normal expenditure is 4 million per year, plus an average of $9 mil per year for the next three years after that. Basketball barely makes a profit most years, so CDC would be guaranteeing it’s solidly in the red for the next four years at a minimum.   

And you still can’t see how this is not just a difference of $3 million? 

Yes, I think he'd do it, if he thinks Beard is the real deal. If he isn't willing to fire Shaka this year over money, then he likely isn't firing him next year or the year after. Why is three years solidly in the red OK when 4 isn't?

I think CDC is willing to gamble that the next guy will turn the program around and have us back in the black in before then while having new energy in place to get donations for the new arena. Perhaps Beard isn't his guy and everything is more favorable for next year, but I am wary to think ADs, agents, and coaches are willing to work out such deals 2 years in advance on the hope that all the ground rules remain the same.

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4 hours ago, rickyspub said:

I don't think CDC retains Shaka for the full term of his contract. It comes down to how confident CDC is in his list of replacements and his ability to seal the deal. If CDC thinks he will hire a home run and can make the deal, then I have little doubt he will make the move now regardless of whether Shaka finds a soft landing, because the move will ultimately pay for itself. If he can't be certain of a deal or he thinks the next guy is going to need a long ramp up to success, then perhaps he waits and sees if Shaka turns it around. But if he doesn't pull the trigger this year, then he has to be prepared to keep him beyond next year as well, because the optics will suck if he fires him after a season of decent improvement.

Which season is that, was that, or will be that? Are you referring to entering the NIT 16-16 golden season we are basking in now?

Edited by El Squared
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1 hour ago, El Squared said:

Which season is that, was that, or will be that? Are you referring to entering the NIT 16-16 golden season we are basking in now?

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that we win 20+ games next year. If Coleman makes a decent leap I think 20+ wins is likely, no matter whether Shaka improves as a coach or not. It could even just be the rest of the conference sucks a bit more than this year. Then we get lucky in the tournament and don't face any high seeds until the Elite Eight and everyone acts like we are on the cusp of being a Big 12 power again. Do think he gets fired after a season like that? Would you really feel confident that Shaka had turned the corner and was headed for greatness? 

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There's really no good attainable coach that's worth Shaka's buyout + getting locked into for 4 years hell or high water.  I don't think Beard, Williams or any of the other guys give me enough reason to think we'll be in any different of a position 3 years from now to pull the trigger.  Sucks that we will be subject to this atrocity of a program for 12 more months but such is life.

Is Thad Matta looking for a job yet?  If healthy he's a sure thing and only 51.  I think he turned down Georgia last year because he said he wasn't quite ready to get back in the grind.

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Taking a chance on Thad Matta and his health doesn't seem like a good gamble for CDC to be able to bring excitement back to the Texas basketball program.

As far as Shaka's buyout, it currently would be paid out at approx $3.2mill/yr over the next four years  ending spring of 2023.  But just like the Avery Johnson firing at Bama, there's somewhat of a chance that a reduced buyout for Shaka might occur through negotiations.  In a reduced buyout situation, often a larger immediate lump sum is paid out and the compensation offset terms from the existing contract are typically modified or removed.

I agree that CDC should make sure that he has a great replacement and the timing is right to make the change to replace Shaka.  CDC did a great job hiring Mike White -- hopefully CDC will find the right individual to replace Shaka.

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Taking a chance on Thad Matta and his health doesn't seem like a good gamble for CDC to be able to bring excitement back to the Texas basketball program.

Matta had a outstanding run at Ohio State, but as effective as he was as a recruiter, he really lost his taste for it towards the end of his time there. Their recruiting classes went from normal attrition to red-flag level and that was partly because Matta wasn't (and his staff weren't) as discerning in who they brought in. 

The health concerns are real. As his health became more challenging, the recruiting issues got worse and the on-court performance dropped. I just don't see how anyone can characterize that as coincidental. If you bring him in, you run the risk that with his health compromised, the amount of time he can put into recruiting will cause him to bring in the highest-caliber kids he can get easily. That is not a recipe for success because one-and-done is a lot more disruptive when the player is staying for part of a year and then transferring, versus giving you a year of lottery-caliber play. 

Matta is a funny, outgoing guy and he's comfortable working in a football-first environment, but I think he's lost his fastball. 

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28 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Matta had a outstanding run at Ohio State, but as effective as he was as a recruiter, he really lost his taste for it towards the end of his time there. Their recruiting classes went from normal attrition to red-flag level and that was partly because Matta wasn't (and his staff weren't) as discerning in who they brought in. 

The health concerns are real. As his health became more challenging, the recruiting issues got worse and the on-court performance dropped. I just don't see how anyone can characterize that as coincidental. If you bring him in, you run the risk that with his health compromised, the amount of time he can put into recruiting will cause him to bring in the highest-caliber kids he can get easily. That is not a recipe for success because one-and-done is a lot more disruptive when the player is staying for part of a year and then transferring, versus giving you a year of lottery-caliber play. 

Matta is a funny, outgoing guy and he's comfortable working in a football-first environment, but I think he's lost his fastball. 

Good stuff.... Agree and hopefully Matta is not on CDC's short list.

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31 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Matta had a outstanding run at Ohio State, but as effective as he was as a recruiter, he really lost his taste for it towards the end of his time there. Their recruiting classes went from normal attrition to red-flag level and that was partly because Matta wasn't (and his staff weren't) as discerning in who they brought in. 

The health concerns are real. As his health became more challenging, the recruiting issues got worse and the on-court performance dropped. I just don't see how anyone can characterize that as coincidental. If you bring him in, you run the risk that with his health compromised, the amount of time he can put into recruiting will cause him to bring in the highest-caliber kids he can get easily. That is not a recipe for success because one-and-done is a lot more disruptive when the player is staying for part of a year and then transferring, versus giving you a year of lottery-caliber play. 

Matta is a funny, outgoing guy and he's comfortable working in a football-first environment, but I think he's lost his fastball. 

Agree with all of this.  Thought of him because I'm underwhelmed by all of the rumored candidates.  I don't like any of them and think that all of them have a similar band of outcomes here as Shaka continuing does (around 18-21 wins/year, 3rd-7th in conference).  Certainly not worth dumping $15-20mil into for.  I was thinking of Matta after another year of Smart, hoping to get clarity on whether the health problems are persistent or if they are in the past.  Most, if not all, of the decline in performance *could* be explained by health.  Of course it could also be because he's lost his edge as you suggest.  That's what CDC get paid for.  Figure out which it is.  Coaches at his age and track record aren't available to anyone but the blue bloods if there aren't some concerns.  I would say it's worth probing if still available next year but too risky now.

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3 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Most, if not all, of the decline in performance *could* be explained by health.  Of course it could also be because he's lost his edge as you suggest. 

It's both and they're tightly interrelated. His health keeps him from recruiting as actively as he did 15 years ago. He also just plain doesn't like it, and what coach in his 50s would, unless you're a kiss-the-ring type like Calipari or Coach K. 

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16 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Thought of him because I'm underwhelmed by all of the rumored candidates.

Which candidates would interest you? Because realistically, Beard and Buzz are the two that we have even a remote chance of landing, and we're not poaching coaches from blue bloods or the next tier down.

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22 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Thought of him because I'm underwhelmed by all of the rumored candidates.  

 

5 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Which candidates would interest you? Because realistically, Beard and Buzz are the two that we have even a remote chance of landing, and we're not poaching coaches from blue bloods or the next tier down.

Great question Machinator.  Agree that a much more thorough list than just Buzz, Beard or Hoiberg might be fun to buildout.

Besides Matta, any new suggestions from you "Old Freak Nasty"?

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17 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Which candidates would interest you? Because realistically, Beard and Buzz are the two that we have even a remote chance of landing, and we're not poaching coaches from blue bloods or the next tier down.

None really.  A bad year to be in the market for a coach.  Look at all the shitty candidates rumored for the UCLA job (they aren't getting Tony Bennett), which for all it's thankless nature and bad pay IS a blue blood job.  I'd keep Shaka for another year, wait and see what some promising mid-major guys and lower level P5 guys do (Mike Hopkins, Kevin Keatts, Chris Beard, among others), and see what attractive candidates might surprisingly shake out in the mid to upper P5.

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37 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

It's both and they're tightly interrelated. His health keeps him from recruiting as actively as he did 15 years ago. He also just plain doesn't like it, and what coach in his 50s would, unless you're a kiss-the-ring type like Calipari or Coach K. 

I think your stance is clear in your original reply, but in your opinion IF he is 100% and the health problems are fully in the rear view mirror, does he have the fire to put together a roster and OSU type run in the next 6-8 years?

I've also read about him that he tried and succeeded in running about as clean a program as you can in today's CBB environment (which I find attractive personally) and that may also play a part with his apparent disinterest in recruiting.  Is that accurate?

As to his age, there are many coaches at his age and older that aren't past their expiry date and tolerate recruiting enough to put together good rosters.

Honestly, the more I read up on him the more I want him.  But I admit I may be falling in love with the idea of Thad Matta than actual Matta.

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1 hour ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Matta had a outstanding run at Ohio State, but as effective as he was as a recruiter, he really lost his taste for it towards the end of his time there. Their recruiting classes went from normal attrition to red-flag level and that was partly because Matta wasn't (and his staff weren't) as discerning in who they brought in. 

The health concerns are real. As his health became more challenging, the recruiting issues got worse and the on-court performance dropped. I just don't see how anyone can characterize that as coincidental. If you bring him in, you run the risk that with his health compromised, the amount of time he can put into recruiting will cause him to bring in the highest-caliber kids he can get easily. That is not a recipe for success because one-and-done is a lot more disruptive when the player is staying for part of a year and then transferring, versus giving you a year of lottery-caliber play. 

Matta is a funny, outgoing guy and he's comfortable working in a football-first environment, but I think he's lost his fastball. 

Matta’s Health issues certainly complicate the situation, but he could also be Rick Barnes redux. He was a good coach for a long time at one school, things got stale, and once he started over at an new school he went back to his former self. Probably too much risk with Matta considering we’ll be stuck with him for a minimum of four years. Just another way Shaka’s buyout complicates all this. 

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45 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

I think your stance is clear in your original reply, but in your opinion IF he is 100% and the health problems are fully in the rear view mirror, does he have the fire to put together a roster and OSU type run in the next 6-8 years?

I've also read about him that he tried and succeeded in running about as clean a program as you can in today's CBB environment (which I find attractive personally) and that may also play a part with his apparent disinterest in recruiting.  Is that accurate?

As to his age, there are many coaches at his age and older that aren't past their expiry date and tolerate recruiting enough to put together good rosters.

Honestly, the more I read up on him the more I want him.  But I admit I may be falling in love with the idea of Thad Matta than actual Matta.

Burt hits on a great point-- for all we know, he'll have a Rick Barnes renaissance at his next job, but it's a gamble to commit to a guy who was out of gas. I don't know Matta and I don't have any inside connections to him, so what I know about his health is what you can get from reading informed Internet stuff. IF his health issues were resolved, then yes, it really just becomes a question of how much fire he has in his belly and how effective he can be as a nominally clean recruiting (I say nominally because let's face it, none of us really know). 

Just based on the empty tank and the health stuff, I don't think he'd be among our absolute best options. UCLA's interest, to me, just shows how dysfunctional that program is. I'd take him over Smart, Johnny Dawkins, or hypothetically keeping 2015 Rick Barnes. 

Interesting hypothetical question is, roll the dice on Matta, or hire Buzz Williams, if you could choose between the two. 

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Mike K has had as many similar health issues as Matta.  I'm not equating the two or even their situations, but I'm pretty confident CDC would make a strong effort to read the tea leaves before pulling the trigger.

Honestly, I think Matta is about as close as we could get to a dream hire.

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Just throwing another name out there.  Brad Underwood.  He was a rising star at SFA and OSU, then made a stupefying career decision to take over one of the worst "high" D1 programs around at Illinois.  He should have made a home at OSU.  I think he's a good coach who made a really bad choice and as such is probably undervalued.  If he made some tangible progress at Illinois next season I'd consider him.  He's also older than I thought he was.  55.  We should be able to do better but putting his name in the blender.  I think the takeaway is that Shaka's tenure has really knocked the stature and allure of this program.  The difference in the kind of coaches being floated during the post-Barnes cycle and this theoretical one is stark.  There's no way a coach with the shine of 2015 Shaka even looks at us today.  2015 Shaka had a better resume over every single rumored guy this year and it's not even close in some instances.

Gregg Marshall reported wanted our job in 2015.  The only reason he'd be in the mix this go around is he hasn't been so good lately.  If he were performing at the same level he was back then he'd laugh at us calling today.

 

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Just now, Old Freak Nasty said:

Just throwing another name out there.  Brad Underwood.  He was a rising star at SFA and OSU, then made a stupefying career decision to take over one of the worst "high" D1 programs around at Illinois.  He should have made a home at OSU.  I think he's a good coach who made a really bad choice and as such is probably undervalued.  If he made some tangible progress at Illinois next season I'd consider him.  He's also older than I thought he was.  55.  We should be able to do better but putting his name in the blender.  I think the takeaway is that Shaka's tenure has really knocked the stature and allure of this program.  The difference in the kind of coaches being floated during the post-Barnes cycle and this theoretical one is stark.  There's no way a coach with the shine of 2015 Shaka even looks at us today.  2015 Shaka had a better resume over every single rumored guy this year and it's not even close in some instances.

Gregg Marshall reported wanted our job in 2015.  The only reason he'd be in the mix this go around is he hasn't been so good lately.  If he were performing at the same level he was back then he'd laugh at us calling today.

 

Illinois is Underwood's dream job. I've heard this from someone who knew him when he was at SFA.

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Just now, Machinator said:

Illinois is Underwood's dream job. I've heard this from someone who knew him when he was at SFA.

Okie Lite AD really screwed up losing Underwood. 

According to ESPN’s Jeff Goodman:

"Told the fractured relationship between Brad Underwood and Oklahoma State AD Mike Holder was a major factor in his decision to leave for Illinois."

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1 minute ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Underwood needs to worry about winning at Illinois before he thinks about any other jobs.

John Groce pulled a Mack Brown on that program.  The record looked okay to outsiders but he left that thing rotten from the core.  That said, it's easier to do a quick turnaround in basketball and he better show results next year otherwise he'll be on the hot seat.

11 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Illinois is Underwood's dream job. I've heard this from someone who knew him when he was at SFA.

I'm shocked by that.  He doesn't appear to have any ties to the area personally or career wise.  He spent a decade as an assistant at Western Illinois but that might as well have been another world compared to Chicago and it ended 25 years ago.  I'd guess Kansas would be his dream job seeing that he's from there (although with no ties to the school).

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11 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

John Groce pulled a Mack Brown on that program.  The record looked okay to outsiders but he left that thing rotten from the core.  That said, it's easier to do a quick turnaround in basketball and he better show results next year otherwise he'll be on the hot seat.

I'm shocked by that.  He doesn't appear to have any ties to the area personally or career wise.  He spent a decade as an assistant at Western Illinois but that might as well have been another world compared to Chicago and it ended 25 years ago.  I'd guess Kansas would be his dream job seeing that he's from there (although with no ties to the school).

U of Illinois is in Champaign-Urbana. A shithole town that probably looks like paradise compared to Macomb, IL where Western IL is located.

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3 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

U of Illinois is in Champaign-Urbana. A shithole town that probably looks like paradise compared to Macomb, IL where Western IL is located.

My wife did undergrad at UofI.  I know exactly how much of a shithole that town is.  That said, there's really no equivalency or much similarity between Champaign and whatever Macomb looks like.  But you can tell from a map and proximity to other cities.

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3 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

 

Interesting hypothetical question is, roll the dice on Matta, or hire Buzz Williams, if you could choose between the two. 

I think it’s hard to say. I like Matta better if he could get back to his early tOSU days. Buzz is safer, but he likely has a buyout at Va Tech and we’d likely be in a bidding war with aggy, so when you factor in Shaka’s buyout again, I’m not sure he’s even an option. 

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On 3/24/2019 at 7:26 PM, NowThis said:

the correct answer is Johnny Dawkins 

He has been a head coach for 11 seasons and this is his second trip to the NCAAs; he managed to underperform Trent Johnson, who you might remember from his time as the guy spinning his wheels at TCU. No thank you.

Speaking of Trent Johnson, guess who hired him at TCU? Yep. CDC's also responsible for hiring Ben Braun at Rice, who went 63-128 over 6 years. The only successful hire CDC has made in basketball is Jamie Dixon, who is unquestionably an upgrade for TCU. My Pretend We're Football co-host Tim Preston made the salient point that CDC's basketball hiring M.O. to this point hasn't been going after the up & coming guys (like Nate Oats now) but rather a safer re-tread with less upside. If he does find a new spot for Shaka, I'm more concerned about who he might hire than I was previously. Texas is not TCU or Rice so the comparison only goes so far, but the only data we have to go on indicates it's unlikely CDC will swing for the fences on a replacement.

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49 minutes ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

He has been a head coach for 11 seasons and this is his second trip to the NCAAs; he managed to underperform Trent Johnson, who you might remember from his time as the guy spinning his wheels at TCU. No thank you.

Speaking of Trent Johnson, guess who hired him at TCU? Yep. CDC's also responsible for hiring Ben Braun at Rice, who went 63-128 over 6 years. The only successful hire CDC has made in basketball is Jamie Dixon, who is unquestionably an upgrade for TCU. My Pretend We're Football co-host Tim Preston made the salient point that CDC's basketball hiring M.O. to this point hasn't been going after the up & coming guys (like Nate Oats now) but rather a safer re-tread with less upside. If he does find a new spot for Shaka, I'm more concerned about who he might hire than I was previously. Texas is not TCU or Rice so the comparison only goes so far, but the only data we have to go on indicates it's unlikely CDC will swing for the fences on a replacement. 

The only hiring data point we have so far at Texas was the women's softball coach, and he definitely swung for the fences there (and appears to have hit it out of the park).  I don't see any reason why the same expectation wouldn't apply to basketball (especially if there are already reports/indications out there that Beard is playing footsy with Texas brass).

Not sure we should consider the type of coach he was able to land at TCU/Rice as an indicator of his competency in hiring.  He batted .500 at TCU on bball coach hires, including one where he poached Pitt's longtime basketball coach.  He batted 100% on Rice football hires (David Bailiff), which was made in the wake of the Todd Graham mess.  His meaningful input in the TCU football program appears to have been convincing Patterson to bring in Cumbie/Meacham, which almost got TCU into the CFP.

Point being:  CDC's hires haven't been perfect, and it's unreasonable to expect anyone's to be.  But the notion that CDC pussyfoots on hires just does not appear correct. 

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5 minutes ago, Machinator said:

(and the track coach)

Totally forgot about that.  And I'll be honest that I know nothing about track, but it's another example of CDC going and poaching another school's successful, "big time" coach and bringing them to Texas.  If anything, that appears to be CDC's M.O.:  Go find someone who's already being successful somewhere and pay them to come do the same thing here, but better. 

That's what he did with Dixon from Pitt.  It's what he did with Mike White.  And if you just look at the W-L records, it's pretty easy to think that that that's what he thought he was getting in Trent Johnson--even though he was wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

The only hiring data point we have so far at Texas was the women's softball coach, and he definitely swung for the fences there (and appears to have hit it out of the park).  I don't see any reason why the same expectation wouldn't apply to basketball (especially if there are already reports/indications out there that Beard is playing footsy with Texas brass).

 

What reports are you referring to?

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21 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

What reports are you referring to?

Definitely some rumblings from BWG himself.  But I think there are other $9.95ers who have indicated the same thing, although I can't point you to anything specific off the top of my head.  Maybe the bot can help?

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Just now, Dirk X West said:

So these reports are from other message board posters?

Pretty sure BWG qualifies as more than just an "other message board poster," and if the $9.95ers are just "other message board posters," then I don't know where you think information comes from these days.

But, yes, I can confirm that Beard himself has not publicly stated he is playing footsy with UT.  Nor has CDC tweeted anything about it.  In fact, even if such information were given, but no actual footsy were observed, someone following Hume's philosophy would be right to assert that it is no evidence whatosever. 

So, given the obvious dearth of quality information, the only possible conclusion to be drawn is that everything is meaningless.

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Who is BWG?  I mean, I know he's "Bitter White Guy", but who is he?

I don't doubt there are some people (likely a very small number of people) who post on these things that might have insider info, but considering that A. everyone who posts on a message board does so under aliases/screen names and that B. there are tremendous loads are bullshit stated in these contexts that various folks claim to be accurate, forgive me for remaining skeptical.  I think it's just as likely that most of you believe that Chris Beard *must* be interested in UT, and if anyone claims to have heard rumors to that effect, you naturally think "aha, I knew it!' 

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19 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

Who is BWG?  I mean, I know he's "Bitter White Guy", but who is he?

I don't doubt there are some people (likely a very small number of people) who post on these things that might have insider info, but considering that A. everyone who posts on a message board does so under aliases/screen names and that B. there are tremendous loads are bullshit stated in these contexts that various folks claim to be accurate, forgive me for remaining skeptical.  I think it's just as likely that most of you believe that Chris Beard *must* be interested in UT, and if anyone claims to have heard rumors to that effect, you naturally think "aha, I knew it!' 

Acknowledging you don’t know what you’re talking about and doubling down on the opinion you want to be true in the same post.

This is how you internet, people!

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26 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

Pretty sure BWG qualifies as more than just an "other message board poster," and if the $9.95ers are just "other message board posters," then I don't know where you think information comes from these days.

But, yes, I can confirm that Beard himself has not publicly stated he is playing footsy with UT.  Nor has CDC tweeted anything about it.  In fact, even if such information were given, but no actual footsy were observed, someone following Hume's philosophy would be right to assert that it is no evidence whatosever. 

So, given the obvious dearth of quality information, the only possible conclusion to be drawn is that everything is meaningless.

Kurt Bohls or GTFO, Katfid.

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21 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

Who is BWG?  I mean, I know he's "Bitter White Guy", but who is he?

I don't doubt there are some people (likely a very small number of people) who post on these things that might have insider info, but considering that A. everyone who posts on a message board does so under aliases/screen names and that B. there are tremendous loads are bullshit stated in these contexts that various folks claim to be accurate, forgive me for remaining skeptical.  I think it's just as likely that most of you believe that Chris Beard *must* be interested in UT, and if anyone claims to have heard rumors to that effect, you naturally think "aha, I knew it!' 

Click though to this link and it will tell you everything you need to know.

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1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

Kurt Bohls or GTFO, Katfid.

But I'll only believe it if I see Bohls write the article with his own pen, after seeing him fill his own pen with ink, after seeing him cook that ink on his own oven, after seeing him build that oven out of his own castiron, after seeing him mine iron ingots from his own mine, after seeing him dig that mine in his own backyard, after seeing him fashion his own shovel in his own forge, after seeing him literally fucking invent fire in the first place.

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