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2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread


Machinator

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24 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Anything under 30 for a starter is pretty good.

I don't disagree, but I think if you asked most college basketball fans if around 30 minutes per game for starters is too many minutes most would say yes. 

I think most Texas fans believe we played our starters too many minutes this year. When in reality we are just slightly above those numbers and below Duke in '15 and probably below the national champion this year. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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I have zero problems with starters averaging over 30 minutes a game - especially guards.  Take a guy like Graham at KU.  I guarantee you minutes 30-38 from "tired" Graham are better than those same 8 minutes from "fresh" bench player.  These are supremely conditioned athletes. They can play all day long.  The main reason to sit them is to keep them from fouling out and also to give them a minute or two of coaching.  

Big men is a different story.  I don't want my post players playing more than 27-28 minutes.  They wear down and foul out.

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16 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I have zero problems with starters averaging over 30 minutes a game - especially guards.  Take a guy like Graham at KU.  I guarantee you minutes 30-38 from "tired" Graham are better than those same 8 minutes from "fresh" bench player.  These are supremely conditioned athletes. They can play all day long.  The main reason to sit them is to keep them from fouling out and also to give them a minute or two of coaching.  

Big men is a different story.  I don't want my post players playing more than 27-28 minutes.  They wear down and foul out.

This is the big thing... If KU had someone who could produce 75% of what graham could then spelling Graham for even 8 minutes a game would keep Graham's batteries from going 100% to 60% by the end of the game.  He might finish the game at 80% which is good.  That being said, some of these kids don't get tired and perform better at the end of the game.

One interesting thing for KU is that Graham is having his worst games of the season right now after averaging 38 mpg.  Newman has "only" averaged 31 mpg and he is averaging 2x his regular season production since march started.  Even getting some time off is good for guys when you are playing your 38-40th game of the year.

I think the key is "quality backup minutes" you don't need a lot of them but you have to be able to come out of a nice run, bring in some subs, and prevent the opponent from countering that 10 point run you made with an 8 point run of their own.  A lot of the championship teams have been able to do that over the last 10 years.  KU and Nova don't have that luxury this year but they also have 2 of the best players in the country and 2 of the best coaches in the country.  For KU specifically, we will be playing a 9-10 man rotation next year and we will be playing the high-low offense again with 2 bigs.  We physically couldn't do that over the last 2 years because of limited scholarship players (4 transfers players sitting) and key injuries/non-qualifier.  Our current configuration is not the way to win consistently.  We have been very opportunistic this year.

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4 hours ago, txhorns said:

In what way has last year's class been a bust?  Please explain this idiotic take to me.

Bamba is gone. Hamm will transfer before too long. Febres will probably never develop a consistent jump shot and leave after getting 10 minutes of PT next year. Leaving Coleman and Sims. Sound familiar? Give it time. It will be a bust.

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48 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

 For KU specifically, we will be playing a 9-10 man rotation next year and we will be playing the high-low offense again with 2 bigs.  We physically couldn't do that over the last 2 years because of limited scholarship players (4 transfers players sitting) and key injuries/non-qualifier.  Our current configuration is not the way to win consistently.  We have been very opportunistic this year.

It will be interesting to watch next year because I won't be surprised if that team fails to produce like this year's team. 

Next year's team certainly has more depth and more options in terms of bigs, but Graham and Mykhailuk give you an insanely good 6 to 7 man rotation. 

I do agree that such limited depth probably isn't a consistent way to approach winning, but in a way I think it's kind of helped Kansas this year. Kansas has a clear identity, cohesion, and its best players are almost always on the court. 

I would take that Kansas roster any day over a lot of teams with more quality depth, because your 7 guys can beat just about anybody. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Bamba is gone. Hamm will transfer before too long. Febres will probably never develop a consistent jump shot and leave after getting 10 minutes of PT next year. Leaving Coleman and Sims. Sound familiar? Give it time. It will be a bust.

Bamba gave us a great season, and we always knew he was going to be a one-and-done. We didn't take full advantage of it, but that doesn't make him a bust.

Febres was always going to be a program player. Shooting doesn't immediately translate as you ascend levels of play. I'm not going to write him off because he had a freshman year of growing pains (even as he showed some potential). Takes like this are why people hate Texas fans.

Hamm - yes, this take I question.

Sims and Coleman will be good.

So that's three or maybe four out of the five takes (if you exclude Long) from that class who have given us solid contributions. Hardly a bust class. The 2016 class is a different matter.

Edited by Machinator
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13 minutes ago, Machinator said:

In other words, they're well-coached.

There's no denying Self is an incredible coach and he deserves a lot of credit. 

But a lot of their identity and cohesion, like Jhawk alluded to above with transfers/injuries, was kind of luck of a draw in a weird way. 

The entire small ball movement at Kansas happened because they didn't really have any bigs and didn't have much depth. Sometimes having more players and more options can actually be a headache. This might be Self's least amount of depth ever at Kansas and it's probably one of his best teams. That has a lot to do with Self being a great coach but in a way the injuries/transfers/qualification issues forced Self's hand in a good way. 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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6 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Bamba gave us a great season, and we always knew he was going to be a one-and-done. We didn't take full advantage of it, but that doesn't make him a bust.

Febres was always going to be a program player. Shooting doesn't immediately translate as you ascend levels of play. I'm not going to write him off because he had a freshman year of growing pains (even as he showed some potential). Takes like this are why people hate Texas fans.

Hamm - yes, this take I question.

Sims and Coleman will be good.

So that's three or maybe four out of the five takes (if you exclude Long) from that class who have given us solid contributions. Hardly a bust class. The 2016 class is a different matter.

I didn't say Bamba was a bust. The class will be as a whole. Allen wasn't a bust, but his class certainly is. Long may be good, he also may be as bad as Osetkowski. No one knows. If this class wins 0 tournament games it's a bust.

Edited by HtownHorn
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13 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

There's no denying Self is an incredible coach and he deserves a lot of credit. 

But a lot of their identity and cohesion, like Jhawk alluded to above with transfers/injuries, was kind of luck of a draw in a weird way. 

The entire small ball movement at Kansas happened because they didn't really have any bigs and didn't have much depth. Sometimes having more players and more options can actually be a headache. This might be Self's least amount of depth ever at Kansas and it's probably one of his best teams. That has a lot to do with Self being a great coach but in a way the injuries/transfers/qualification issues forced Self's hand in a good way. 

 

100%.  We were 1 injury away for the last 2 years of being a 1st weekend team and possibly losing the big12 title.  We took a couple of risks with transfers 2 years ago and had an unfortunate injury that made us play a 4 guard lineup last year.  Before that injury we took on 3 more transfers for that would sit this year and thus drained our scholarship count.  Then the big man got injured and we had to play 5 guards a few times during the season.  We lost in the E8 to oregon.  Fast forward to this year and we have 1 transfer become eligible but still have 3 sitting on the bench.  We have a non-qualifier and are forced to have a HS kid come to school early so we can have 8 guys that can actually do something with a basketball while on the court.  1 Injury this year an we are toast for the long haul most likely.

We have been insanely lucky for the last 2 years.  Next year we are probably going to have to ask guys to transfer out because we are so deep at nearly every position.

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Regarding depth, I think your strategy depends on the talent differential between your top guys and the bench.  When you have a team like Texas Tech where the #4 guy isn't THAT much better than the #9 guy, it can be a great strategy to play everybody 20 minutes a game. You can keep throwing fresh bodies out there and be disruptive - especially defensively. 

A side benefit to this strategy is that the #9 guy may someday be your #2 guy and he will have a ton of playing time under his belt by the time he is a senior.  Additionally if there are injuries or  foul problems, you have a ton of players who can step right in and contribute.  If somebody can play 15 min a game, it isn't a big deal to step up and play 25.  On the other hand if you have a guy getting 5 min a game replacing a guy who plays 32 min a game it is going to be trouble.

All that said, I've coached my son's team and found that a 7-8 man rotation was much easier to manage.  In my case the talent drop-off from 5 to 10 was very steep - especially at the back end.  With a 7 man rotation, you are keeping at least 3 of your best players on the floor at any given time, and often you will have 4-5 of your best players.  With a 10 man rotation, there will be times when you have 4-5 of your worst players out there.  This won't be a winning strategy for most teams. 

It is also hard to maintain chemistry and momentum for players when they are going in and out all the time.

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Yeah we should definitely qualify that depth needs to be quality but that is what started this convo in the first place.  Just because you have burger boys coming to play for you doesn't mean they are ready to contribute.  UT is going to have some major depth problems even with a good recruiting class.

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2 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

I didn't say Bamba was a bust. The class will be as a whole. Allen wasn't a bust, but his class certainly is. Long may be good, he also may be as bad as Osetkowski. No one knows. If this class wins 0 tournament games it's a bust.

Calling the class a bust after 1 year is just plain stupid.  Especially when 4 of them started games their freshman year.  Bamba will be a top 10 pick and was always a one and done.  Coleman will be either a 3 or 4 year starter and looked pretty damn good his freshman year.  Sims will probably start the next 3 years, provided quality depth this year, and showed a ton of potential.  Febres started a few games this year, struggled some but also showed a lot of potential and may start next year.  Hamm is the only one who looks like a bust at this point but he still has only been in the program for 1 year.  That is the exact opposite of a bust class.  Yes they will win tournament games before they graduate.

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2 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Calling the class a bust after 1 year is just plain stupid.  Especially when 4 of them started games their freshman year.  Bamba will be a top 10 pick and was always a one and done.  Coleman will be either a 3 or 4 year starter and looked pretty damn good his freshman year.  Sims will probably start the next 3 years, provided quality depth this year, and showed a ton of potential.  Febres started a few games this year, struggled some but also showed a lot of potential and may start next year.  Hamm is the only one who looks like a bust at this point but he still has only been in the program for 1 year.  That is the exact opposite of a bust class.  Yes they will win tournament games before they graduate.

If this class wins 0 tournament games it's a bust, this shouldn't be that hard to comprehend.

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6 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If this class wins 0 tournament games it's a bust, this shouldn't be that hard to comprehend.

Your original statement was that the class has pretty much busted.  No qualifiers.  No "if".  Simply that they are already a bust, after 1 year.  A year in which the class led the team to the NCAA tournament as freshmen.  I will agree that the class was a bust if they never win a tournament game but is highly unlikely that they don't.

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3 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Your original statement was that the class has pretty much busted.  No qualifiers.  No "if".  Simply that they are already a bust, after 1 year.  A year in which the class led the team to the NCAA tournament as freshmen.  I will agree that the class was a bust if they never win a tournament game but is highly unlikely that they don't.

They didn't win a tournament game did they? One is gone. One has been recruited over. One can't shoot, and the final one has no offensive game outside of the dunk. Tell me how that worked out for the previous class?

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You're concluding Febres (I assume) can't shoot because of a rocky freshman year?

You're underselling Sims if all you think he'll be able to do by the time he's done at Texas is dunk.

You're also omitting Coleman, who's arguably the prize of the non-one-and-dones of that class.

Edited by Machinator
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1 hour ago, Machinator said:

You're concluding Febres (I assume) can't shoot because of a rocky freshman year?

You're underselling Sims if all you think he'll be able to do by the time he's done at Texas is dunk.

You're also omitting Coleman, who's arguably the prize of the non-one-and-dones of that class.

Just like Young's freshmen year, which lead to him getting almost no PT until no one was left is sophomore year, which lead to him to bolt.

Sims hasn't shown an ability to do anything but dunk, just like Banks did his freshmen year. Banks developed no game his sophomore year, didn't get to play and left. It's likely Sims stays, but Hamm has been recruited over and his likely to leave after his sophomore year.

Coleman = Jones, solid freshmen years. Likely would/will leave after their sophomore year to the NBA. Likely not winning a tournament game.

Then in 2020, it will be maybe a Jr. Sims surrounded by a bunch of sophomore and freshmen, rinse and repeat.

The only constant is the horrible coaching coming from the sidelines, until we see differently, the status quo is the only known.

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Coleman will not be gone after next year, maybe after his junior year.  Sims has shown so much more than Banks ever did.  Febres also showed more than Young did in his freshman year.  You're taking a very small sample size and assuming everyone will follow suit. 

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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Sims hasn't shown an ability to do anything but dunk, just like Banks did his freshmen year.

Strongly disagree. Sims has already demonstrated a decent touch around the basket. He also has a better handle than Banks--still not the sort of guy you want to see matriculating the ball up the court, but good enough for a power dribble/shot combination, or for catching the ball near the perimeter and working his way into the paint.

It all boils down to how hard he is willing to work, but I am buoyed by the prospect of watching Sims develop as a 'Horn for at least two more years.

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Over 300 transfers have already announced their intentions for next season and we are just getting to April.

What does that mean for Texas? Well, a couple of things. First, it makes it quite clear what college basketball has become and Texas certainly isn’t exempt from that. 2) there are shooters, bigs and combos of those to be had.

Shooters, shooters, shooters. We need it at SG and SF the most but if he’s gonna add a stretch 4, I’m fine with that too. We have a rising star at PG who can deliver the ball. 

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1 hour ago, Revolution512 said:

Over 300 transfers have already announced their intentions for next season and we are just getting to April.

What does that mean for Texas? Well, a couple of things. First, it makes it quite clear what college basketball has become and Texas certainly isn’t exempt from that. 2) there are shooters, bigs and combos of those to be had.

Shooters, shooters, shooters. We need it at SG and SF the most but if he’s gonna add a stretch 4, I’m fine with that too. We have a rising star at PG who can deliver the ball. 

It sucks that CBB is at the edge of free agency.

That being said, right now all transfers still have to sit out a year right?  I don't think the new rule is official and even if it was it doesn't go into effect until August 2018.  That means that the most prized transfers will be quality grad transfers.  I wonder how many of those there are. I also wonder how many of these kids will wait until August to make a decision so they can see what the deal is with the rule.  Could you imagine players transferring in the middle of the season like the second semester is a trade deadline?

I don't think the old rule was right but damn this has major implications on the game of CBB.

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I think next years team will be a tad better then this last years.  Got some time to work together without Bamba last year.  

Losing Banks won’t hurt, honestly i don’t think EDJ leaving will hurt much.  I hate Young leaving after he started to come on at the end. A Coleman/Snoop back court will win games for us.  

 

However it wont be enough for Shaka to stay and we’ll have next years version of RI’s Hurley to keep us average for the next 3 years. 

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16 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Strongly disagree. Sims has already demonstrated a decent touch around the basket. He also has a better handle than Banks--still not the sort of guy you want to see matriculating the ball up the court, but good enough for a power dribble/shot combination, or for catching the ball near the perimeter and working his way into the paint.

It all boils down to how hard he is willing to work, but I am buoyed by the prospect of watching Sims develop as a 'Horn for at least two more years.

Sims had Big 12 Defensive POY potential. His O will improve. 

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There is zero logical argument that we should be better next season than we were this season. That is nuts. It is absolutely nuts. All kind of people with “feelings” that we will be better next year, and “feelings” that we won’t miss Mo Bamba next year; that’s called blind, homer optimism- and it’s completely illogical.

 

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23 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

There is zero logical argument that we should be better next season than we were this season. That is nuts. It is absolutely nuts. All kind of people with “feelings” that we will be better next year, and “feelings” that we won’t miss Mo Bamba next year; that’s called blind, homer optimism- and it’s completely illogical.

 

I probably had unrealistic expectations last year because I thought based on others' evaluations that  Bamba, Coleman, and DO would be better than they were.  At this point, it's pure hope or check out as a fan.  Hope that the incoming class will be better than expected, that Jones will be able to get back into form, and that Coleman, Sims, and Febres will show some improvement.  With no true center maybe Shaka will go back to Havoc.  There is a dream scenario where we are better, but no it's not based on a logical projection.

Edited by ClubWhatever
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8 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

There is zero logical argument that we should be better next season than we were this season. That is nuts. It is absolutely nuts. All kind of people with “feelings” that we will be better next year, and “feelings” that we won’t miss Mo Bamba next year; that’s called blind, homer optimism- and it’s completely illogical.

 

Is it? Sophomore Matt Coleman, dominating the ball. Roach has an off-season like the last. Sims will be an absolute star. Texas has a 5. Can he get anything behind it? 

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9 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

There is zero logical argument that we should be better next season than we were this season. That is nuts. It is absolutely nuts. All kind of people with “feelings” that we will be better next year, and “feelings” that we won’t miss Mo Bamba next year; that’s called blind, homer optimism- and it’s completely illogical.

 

Well next year's performance won't take place in a vacuum. Considering the 11 other teams in the conference factor into how we'll perform next season I'm not sure  how one can be so firm in either direction.

From where things stand today:

1. KU improve or stay the same

2. Tech probably step back a bit

3. WVU probably step back a bit

4. K St definitely improve (assuming Wade and everyone else returns)

5. TCU probably step back a bit

6. Baylor stay the same or step back a bit (losing their PG, 6th man, and Acuil, but giving Drew the benefit of the doubt)

7. UT ??????

8. Okla ST improve

9. OU unless something unforeseen happens (Young inexplicably decides to stay in school) Giant step back

10 Iowa St Improve tremendously

Not counting us I see 3 teams (Iowa St, Okla St, & K St) that are certain to improve next year with another 4 teams that are taking a definite step back (Tech, WVU, TCU, OU) and 2 wildcards in Baylor and Kansas being Kansas either improving or staying the same. Not sure why it's illogical that we improve somewhat in the standings. If you're talking in the absolute sense I'd guess that whatever steps we fall back on the defensive end will probably be balanced by some improvement on the offensive end wrt to TOs and shooting %. 

 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn
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Other teams have nothing to do with our team. If they replaced the other schools with NAIA teams we’d win the league- wouldn’t change how poorly coached we are, nor will it change the fact that we lose Mo Bamba, we lose a healthy Andrew Jones, we lose three would-be upperclassmen, and we have at-best Shaka’s third best team out of his four seasons. None of that adds up to our team being better, or even acceptable. Barring all of our guards magically becoming sharpshooters over the summer we are toast.

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On 3/29/2018 at 4:59 PM, HtownHorn said:

Just like Young's freshmen year, which lead to him getting almost no PT until no one was left is sophomore year, which lead to him to bolt.

Sims hasn't shown an ability to do anything but dunk, just like Banks did his freshmen year. Banks developed no game his sophomore year, didn't get to play and left. It's likely Sims stays, but Hamm has been recruited over and his likely to leave after his sophomore year.

Coleman = Jones, solid freshmen years. Likely would/will leave after their sophomore year to the NBA. Likely not winning a tournament game.

Then in 2020, it will be maybe a Jr. Sims surrounded by a bunch of sophomore and freshmen, rinse and repeat.

The only constant is the horrible coaching coming from the sidelines, until we see differently, the status quo is the only known.

My gut says you are right....

but I don’t want to believe!!!!

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If you follow Jaxson Hayes on IG his current story includes him doing an in-game dunk from about a foot and half in front of the FT line. Another crazy athlete who will be a basketball project though. Bamba, Allen, Sims, Hayes- I love our guys, but I also wish we’d get a few more bigs with some polish to their game.

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How many freshmen bigs with polish have we had in the last 20 years? Mihm, Aldridge, Durant (if you count him as  a big), Boddicker (rebounded like a big, but really didnt play inside), Buckman, Tucker (undersized big), Damon James, Myles, Turner, and maybe Tristan Thompson (although I'd argue he was just a bit more refined than Sims, plus he was like a 20 year old freshman). 

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3 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

How many freshmen bigs with polish have we had in the last 20 years? Mihm, Aldridge, Durant (if you count him as  a big), Boddicker (rebounded like a big, but really didnt play inside), Buckman, Tucker (undersized big), Damon James, Myles, Turner, and maybe Tristan Thompson (although I'd argue he was just a bit more refined than Sims, plus he was like a 20 year old freshman). 

Outside of Durant, none of those guys showed the polish that the freshmen from Loyola Chicago showed in the tournament. Though I think the 2nd best freshmen big during the last 20 years was Jared Allen. Offensively he had a nice game, Texas couldn't get the ball to him very well.

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Guest earbucket

Next year's team.

Two seniors:  Roach and Osetkowski.  Dependent on Roach returning, but both players are decent but both appear to have low basketball IQ.  Osetkowski plays hard, but makes a lot of dumb decisions.  He will have to play inside more on offense next year and learn to pick his moments. He is going to have to learn how to be a better defender. Roach has improved his shooting and will defend the best opposing guard. He needs to improve his handle.

Two juniors: Jones.  Hope for a full recovery and that he is healthy.  Long will not be a savior, but he will be a credible guard who can play some point and shooting guard.  Much debate about how effective he will be, but he should be a benefit as the third guard.

Four sophomores: Coleman, Sims, Febres and Hamm.  Coleman will be the key for next year.  One, he plays most important position.  Two, he gives a shit (see ft workout after Tech game).  I expect him to be the team leader this summer and next year. He will play fewer minutes because of Long and make better decisions.  Big guys have steadily improved under Smart and that is due to Horn.  I think Sims will be a good player at the five.  Febres reputation is as a shooter.  If he teams up with Coleman and works on his game, I believe the game next year will slow down and he will a contributor.  Hamm may be passed up by the freshman.

Four freshman: Liddell, Hepa, Hayes and Cunningham. Does Liddell start at SF next year?  Hepa, Hayes and Cunningham will be backups at 4, 5 and 3. Hepa and Cunningham can shoot, but all three are more potential than primary players right now.

Room for one more: Ramey or a grad transfer. Prefer to have Ramey, grad transfer and transfer in that order.

Coaching Staff: I don't agree with the way Smart coaches, but he seems to care about his kids and they play hard for him.  Kids at 18-20 need more direction from the coach and should not be given free reign like NBA players. 

Reason for improvement:  Better shooting by guards. Better ball security at end of games by guards.  Texas played a shitload of overtime games and lost several where they controlled the game until the last five minutes.  If Coleman is better at this then Texas should have better results.  Remember the days of Augustin where games were tight and then we just kept the ball with DJ. to close out the game for a win.

Reason for staying the same or being worse: No Bamba. Poor shooting. Worse defense. Ball dominant Osetkowski.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I agree with all of that, but I have a feeling that “worse defense” might be understating things for next year.  We’ve been a good defensive team the last two years mostly because of Allen two years ago and Bamba last year.  Without a first round pick 7 foot rim protector, I suspect the defense slips back a lot.

I have little doubt this will happen. We’ve had Prince Ibeh, Jarrett Allen, and Mo Bamba consecutively; we have nothing to replicate that this year. Sims should be a good defensive center, but he’s not on that level, nor does he have a freaky long body like each of these guys. Great athlete, should be a good defender- still not gonna be the same.

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Well he isn’t. Here is at 6’6” before he grew the 5 inches. He’s not done yet either, he will get to 7’0. Wingspan already out to 7’3”. 

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/4267250/5721df799a90ec5540a9599e

Now, when you watch that film you see numerous things. You see why he wasn’t recruited at 6’6” but you see a guy whose now 6’11” whose spent time playing primarily on the perimeter. That alone has him ahead of Sims. That’s not to say he isn’t raw because he is. But he’s going to progress quicker IMO. 

I’m intrigued by the newer vids where he’s  blocking everything coming his way. Exciting player headed to the 40. And I love beating Kentucky for players. 

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I just went and watched the most recent video I could find and it was shocking how lazily this guy played. I’ll keep searching for videos, but it really stood out- never really seen anything like it. He not only was the last one down the court by a huge margin multiple times, the one time I did see him in the mix on the offensive end he just stood there and made no effort. I know it’s a sin for me to say this because he’s committed to Texas (which is completely ridiculous), but here, judge for yourself:

 

 

 

Gonna go find some more videos and hope this kid looks better. The kid in that ^^^ video is nowhere near ready to play at Texas.

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