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Flipping the Texas State House 2020: 17<10


StassneyHorn

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38 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Tarrant county has been an early turnout machine.This was the most important county in TX for flipping the state house, along with the getting the surrounding Collin and Denton numbers.

I live in tarrant county. There are some concerning parts of it like southlake and Colleyville. Rich assholes who just want their tax cuts.

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3 hours ago, elfenix said:

Finally got 2 mailers from Ann Johnson pushing the redistricting issue. One was the standard large glossy card mailer, the other was a partially handwritten letter.

 

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Nice touch. Every fucking time I see the districts I want to fucking set Wulaw on fire and then throw him at Greenspoint. 
 

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Haha 3
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7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Please explain. Looking at maps doesn't do shit for me. 

They've adjusted the entire house from Tilt Republican to true Toss Up. Doesn't that speak to still movement in the right direction? 

We need 9 to flip the Texas house. This projection shows a flip of 7 seats with a few more as toss up. It's trending in the right direction, but with redistricting next year, if we don't get to 9 they will just redo their gerrymander and we're back to square 1 with congressional maps. Maybe some of those toss ups go our way, but if not we got painfully close...hence my comment that it feels like we are fumbling at the goal line. 

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3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

We need 9 to flip the Texas house. This projection shows a flip of 7 seats with a few more as toss up. It's trending in the right direction, but with redistricting next year, if we don't get to 9 they will just redo their gerrymander and we're back to square 1 with congressional maps. Maybe some of those toss ups go our way, but if not we got painfully close...hence my comment that it feels like we are fumbling at the goal line. 

Yeah, I get the stakes. But momentum still seems to be moving in the right direction, so that's a reason for hope.

Also, polling in Texas is weak and I think they're slow to move away from the republican bias. I also just assume that the redistricting will be done by the group of 5 anyway and screw everyone. 

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On 10/28/2020 at 10:01 AM, Pescado_Rojo said:

yea, I figure that even if we take the house, it's going to end up in the Supreme Court. Speaking of which, I haven't seen ANY poling in those races. D control there would be HUGE. 

That's just not happening. For one, D's could get 100 percent of the vote and still be down 5-4. For two, those races are as straight up a partisan contest as there can be. No one knows shit except the letter by the name. They'll be in line with the Senate race or a little to the R side.

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On 10/28/2020 at 9:52 AM, Pescado_Rojo said:

We need 9 to flip the Texas house. This projection shows a flip of 7 seats with a few more as toss up. It's trending in the right direction, but with redistricting next year, if we don't get to 9 they will just redo their gerrymander and we're back to square 1 with congressional maps. Maybe some of those toss ups go our way, but if not we got painfully close...hence my comment that it feels like we are fumbling at the goal line. 

I think we get 9 on the nose.

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https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/general-election-results/?_ga=2.119767360.974331241.1604416219-1809443092.1602723246
 

Ive got about 15 minutes left in me before I go to bed. I’ll just wake up and be excited or cry. Texas Election Source twitter is another good aggregator.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TXElects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

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