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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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Is that just a Texas thing?  Because I'm pretty sure you can do that here.  
The law was changed in 1997 for federal taxes. You can get the exemption every 2 years as the trade-off for doing away with the trade-up clause. There might be something with California's state tax that still includes it though. I have no idea on that.

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Where did the monthly come in?  My guys were predicting it was going to come in low and saying float. That’s a bit of a make up for them fucking the dog on the jobs report. They were calling for a big miss. 
 

A little lower than expected. CPI was flat month to month. Core showed a monthly increase (gas dropping, for example, skews overall CPI some), but also a little below expectations.
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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


A little lower than expected. CPI was flat month to month.

That’s actually good news on the flat month over month.   it was always baked in that we were going to see the top line number come down from last year just because of the point of comparison, but the monthly staying flat is the first time that’s happened in what 18 months?  

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27 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

so mortgage bros...what have y'all seen in terms of drop in volume/amount of mortgages you are servicing YoY?

I think the general consensus around the industry is probably down 50-60-%. 
we are off about 40% in units but probably less than 25% in volume. Appreciation helps 

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Fyi- Just got this data today from MBS:

Purchases down 19% YOY

Refinance down 82% YOY

last year refi made up roughly 67% of the market. This year it sits at 23% right now. So, back of the envelope math- .67X .82 + .33 X .19. =‘s mortgage applications down a smooth 61% from last year. Awesome. 
Personally I’m down 25% from last August. I’m on pace to end the year down 31% from last year- but that would require me to keep my average for September- December at the same level as January-August. That might happen but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it. 
feel pretty blessed. I doubt I ever run out of people to help. 

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5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And I’d imagine the mortgage guys like you generally prefer refis to purchases because many of the time constraints and uncertainties aren’t present with someone already in the home. Like a chain of sell to buy dominoes that can sometimes stack up. 

There are trade offs both ways. Refinances are great because of what you said. Also, much less seasonal and the extent that it’s often seasonal (around the first of the year) the purchase market is often quiet at that time. 
Purchases are great because it’s an opportunity to interact with 5 parties (buyer, seller, both agents, title) instead of just borrower and title. That’s the lifeblood of any healthy business but any business that doesn’t pay attention to refinances too is doing it completely wrong. 

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9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And I’d imagine the mortgage guys like you generally prefer refis to purchases because many of the time constraints and uncertainties aren’t present with someone already in the home. Like a chain of sell to buy dominoes that can sometimes stack up. 

Refi's are easier (minus wacko appraisals) but Purchases are more rewarding for lack of a better term.  But yeah the timelines can tighten your butthole sometimes and stress both the borrower and yourself.  For instance we have until tomorrow to close a Foreign national loan.  Basically have a 36 hour window to get these guys done and UW is dragging their feet on two tiny conditions for the CTC.  So yeah the pucker factor is definitely higher on Purchases.

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12 hours ago, Catpfish said:

The law was changed in 1997 for federal taxes. You can get the exemption every 2 years as the trade-off for doing away with the trade-up clause. There might be something with California's state tax that still includes it though. I have no idea on that.
 

Yep.  CA has some other tricks, like taking your property tax bill with you to your new home, but rollovers are a thing of the past.

 

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 has replaced the old Rollover Residence Replacement Rule, IRS Code Section 1034, which allowed you to avoid paying tax on your profit from the sale of a principal residence so long as you bought a replacement residence within 24 months before or after the sale. It also replaces the old IRS Code Section 121 which allowed for a one-time exclusion to sellers who were over 55. The act applies to all sales on or after May 7, 1997, and allows a $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples) exclusion from the tax on the sale of your principal residence. You no longer need to buy another house of equal or greater value to claim the exclusion.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, mchookem said:

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet...

but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃

in a nutshell - we sold our central Austin home at what appears to have been the price peak, closed in mid-June, shipped all our earthly belongings to a PackRat storage facility in Aurora and headed to Denver July 4th weekend. moved in to our friends' basement in pretty central Denver area.

hooked up in person with our Denver RE agent, recommended by @Chewbacca, who turned out to be a helluva nice guy and a was great to work with, even if he is a sooner 😋

we were mostly looking in the burbs, but there was ONE property close to our friends, great neighborhood IN the city, in our price range, ticked almost every box (only thing missing was a hot tub).

five days and about 25 houses later...we went back for a second look and made an offer that was accepted without even a counter.  

i mean what are the chances?? 😄 we are THRILLED! 

nicer, much bigger, newer, inspections were all A+...and only a little bit more per month b/c the property tax difference is NUTS! it's amazing lol. 

anyway...Thad and @UTPhil2006 easily beat the local lenders (we were up front with them from the get-go that we were also talking to our Texas connections)...we are now a 5x repeat customer (and probably not our last...if/when rates drop again, heh). 

we don't start moving in until 8/16...but assuming our pods didn't fall off a truck or train and everything break...this whole process has been about as easy as it could be. i mean i just moved out of Texas for the first time in my life

i am super happy...thanks to everybody at Prodigy/REI for helping make this as easy as it was. Thad did a great job encouraging us to hold steady on our listing price in Austin even when i was starting to get antsy...and he was right 😎 

 

tl/dr: surly connections are gold, Prodigy folks are awesome, and i now live by the mountains!! 🤘

Congrats! 

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Rough stuff today in the MBS market as the bond auction went really shitty.  

Started the day 20 basis points to the good (basis points up make interest rates lower).  Currently 31 points down on the day (51 points down from the opening pricing). Lost 1/8 of a point today.  Still locked one in the 4's, but I had an offer last Monday as low as 4.375% and now we are barely hanging on to that 4.  Probably close to 1/2 a point worse in the interest rate environment over that last week and a half.  

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1 hour ago, mchookem said:

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet...

but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃

in a nutshell - we sold our central Austin home at what appears to have been the price peak, closed in mid-June, shipped all our earthly belongings to a PackRat storage facility in Aurora and headed to Denver July 4th weekend. moved in to our friends' basement in pretty central Denver area.

hooked up in person with our Denver RE agent, recommended by @Chewbacca, who turned out to be a helluva nice guy and a was great to work with, even if he is a sooner 😋

we were mostly looking in the burbs, but there was ONE property close to our friends, great neighborhood IN the city, in our price range, ticked almost every box (only thing missing was a hot tub).

five days and about 25 houses later...we went back for a second look and made an offer that was accepted without even a counter.  

i mean what are the chances?? 😄 we are THRILLED! 

nicer, much bigger, newer, inspections were all A+...and only a little bit more per month b/c the property tax difference is NUTS! it's amazing lol. 

anyway...Thad and @UTPhil2006 easily beat the local lenders (we were up front with them from the get-go that we were also talking to our Texas connections)...we are now a 5x repeat customer (and probably not our last...if/when rates drop again, heh). 

we don't start moving in until 8/16...but assuming our pods didn't fall off a truck or train and everything break...this whole process has been about as easy as it could be. i mean i just moved out of Texas for the first time in my life

i am super happy...thanks to everybody at Prodigy/REI for helping make this as easy as it was. Thad did a great job encouraging us to hold steady on our listing price in Austin even when i was starting to get antsy...and he was right 😎 

 

tl/dr: surly connections are gold, Prodigy folks are awesome, and i now live by the mountains!! 🤘

 

 

Congrats!

 

What neighborhood in the city did you end up buying in?

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1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

 

Congrats!

 

What neighborhood in the city did you end up buying in?

Lowry, between downtown and Aurora...used to be an air force base i believe. it's a huge area, they've developed it all beautifully. i never would have thought we could have found something here! 😁

55 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

So so happy for you guys! And now we have a place to stay when the Astros play the Rockies @mchookem

yes! i'd be happy to host/stick you in the basement! 😋🤘

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Rough stuff today in the MBS market as the bond auction went really shitty.  

Started the day 20 basis points to the good (basis points up make interest rates lower).  Currently 31 points down on the day (51 points down from the opening pricing). Lost 1/8 of a point today.  Still locked one in the 4's, but I had an offer last Monday as low as 4.375% and now we are barely hanging on to that 4.  Probably close to 1/2 a point worse in the interest rate environment over that last week and a half.  

So my kid just went under contract.  Would you advise locking or floating for a bit

 

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11 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Lowry, between downtown and Aurora...used to be an air force base i believe. it's a huge area, they've developed it all beautifully. i never would have thought we could have found something here! 😁

yes! i'd be happy to host/stick you in the basement! 😋🤘

Haha works for me!

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1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

So my kid just went under contract.  Would you advise locking or floating for a bit

 

Typically locking on a Friday isn’t great. Lenders don’t usually have their strongest pricing bc they don’t know what’s going on over the weekend. It’s a crap shoot on a day by day basis. 

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Typically locking on a Friday isn’t great. Lenders don’t usually have their strongest pricing bc they don’t know what’s going on over the weekend. It’s a crap shoot on a day by day basis. 

Friday pricing usually blows due to hedging 

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3 hours ago, mchookem said:

Lowry, between downtown and Aurora...used to be an air force base i believe. it's a huge area, they've developed it all beautifully. i never would have thought we could have found something here! 😁

yes! i'd be happy to host/stick you in the basement! 😋🤘

 


Cool, I noticed they have a lot of new builds there and tons of parks. Our family is in the beginning stages of exploring a move to Denver. 

 
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6 hours ago, mchookem said:

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet...

but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃

in a nutshell - we sold our central Austin home at what appears to have been the price peak, closed in mid-June, shipped all our earthly belongings to a PackRat storage facility in Aurora and headed to Denver July 4th weekend. moved in to our friends' basement in pretty central Denver area.

hooked up in person with our Denver RE agent, recommended by @Chewbacca, who turned out to be a helluva nice guy and a was great to work with, even if he is a sooner 😋

we were mostly looking in the burbs, but there was ONE property close to our friends, great neighborhood IN the city, in our price range, ticked almost every box (only thing missing was a hot tub).

five days and about 25 houses later...we went back for a second look and made an offer that was accepted without even a counter.  

i mean what are the chances?? 😄 we are THRILLED! 

nicer, much bigger, newer, inspections were all A+...and only a little bit more per month b/c the property tax difference is NUTS! it's amazing lol. 

anyway...Thad and @UTPhil2006 easily beat the local lenders (we were up front with them from the get-go that we were also talking to our Texas connections)...we are now a 5x repeat customer (and probably not our last...if/when rates drop again, heh). 

we don't start moving in until 8/16...but assuming our pods didn't fall off a truck or train and everything break...this whole process has been about as easy as it could be. i mean i just moved out of Texas for the first time in my life

i am super happy...thanks to everybody at Prodigy/REI for helping make this as easy as it was. Thad did a great job encouraging us to hold steady on our listing price in Austin even when i was starting to get antsy...and he was right 😎 

 

tl/dr: surly connections are gold, Prodigy folks are awesome, and i now live by the mountains!! 🤘

Noice. Is Lowry around Stapleton?   Loved that neighborhood.  I miss Denver 

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8 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Noice. Is Lowry around Stapleton?   Loved that neighborhood.  I miss Denver 

just about...a little bit south of there, maybe a mile? other side of Colfax.

and apparently Stapleton was a big KKK person so it's now known as Central Park...

200w (8).gif

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On 8/11/2022 at 4:44 PM, Gil Bang said:

So my kid just went under contract.  Would you advise locking or floating for a bit

 

Good day for you on Friday and down a decent bit again today.. I'd look into locking in this valley today.

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59 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Good day for you on Friday and down a decent bit again today.. I'd look into locking in this 

On 8/11/2022 at 4:44 PM, Gil Bang said:

So my kid just went under contract.  Would you advise locking or floating for a bit

 

 

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Good day for you on Friday and down a decent bit again today.. I'd look into locking in this valley today.

I’d tend to agree. My market guys said carefully float, which is fine if you can execute in 3 minutes when the bat signal goes up. But as a customer you don’t have that ability so I’d lock right now. 

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Builder Confidence Index dropped below 50 to 49, dropping for the 8th straight month. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/us-is-in-housing-recession-homebuilders-say.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builders-see-housing-recession-as-builder-sentiment-index-drops-further-in-august-11660572142#:~:text=The home builder confidence index,the number to be 54.

Quote

The numbers: The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index fell 6 points to 49 in August, the trade group said Monday. 

The August reading of 49 is the first time since May 2020 that the index fell below a break-even measure of 50.

The decline was the eighth straight month in August. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected the number to be 54.

One year ago, the index stood at 75. In January this year, the index was at 83.

 “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a statement.

 

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On 8/15/2022 at 9:05 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Good day for you on Friday and down a decent bit again today.. I'd look into locking in this valley today.

Hopefully got locked in.  Thursday a little bit, Friday a lot, and a little bit today has us about 20 basis points up to 3.03 currently back up from the low of about 2.70 a couple weeks back.  Same stuff the past 90 days or so.. 2 steps forward 3 steps back.

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first night in our new Denver home tonight! 😊

we closed in Austin on 6/16, left Texas 6/29, hit Denver 7/1. 

saw our first home (which turned out to be the one we bought) on 7/7, closed 8/11.

i mean i've never moved cross country before, i've never even moved out of Austin since 1988...but i feel like that's pretty good, yeah? some kinda good luck/good planning/good connections jackpot! 🤘

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:24 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

As always, this is not what you should get. This is not an offer for me to deal a deal for you on these terms or any others.  It is very very odd when we don't beat the national average.  This is what it is, merely what my loan software tells me was locked during Friday's course of business nationwide.  It also matches pretty well with what my guys at MBS Highway say as far as national averages. We had gotten lower than this Monday of last week but the tale of last week was getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly and hard.  Still, well down from the top we saw about 2 or 3 months ago at 6.05% I think was the worst of it. 

 

30-YR. CONFORMING

5.452% +0.126

30-YR. JUMBO

5.305% +0.228

30-YR. FHA

5.428% +0.184

30-YR. VA

5.065% +0.093

30-YR. USDA

5.340% +0.013

15-YR. CONFORMING

4.699% +0.138

Not a fun trend from 2 weeks ago (which was itself at the end of a 3 day bit of suck.  Same caveats as always- not an offer to lend- we do better than average for most people, blah blah blah

 

DAILY MORTGAGE RATES  (August 22, 2022) — Powered by OBMMI™

30-YR. CONFORMING

5.676% +0.078

30-YR. JUMBO

5.408% +0.023

30-YR. FHA

5.555% +0.078

30-YR. VA

5.275% +0.034

30-YR. USDA

5.472% -0.080

15-YR. CONFORMING

4.850% +0.088
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11 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Are yall seeing a major slowdown in property bidding wars? 

Yes.  I think the last 7 people I had put in an offer all got the house at offer price.  There are no deals out there or anything, but it's not super bleak anymore.  Especially if the property is not in it's first weekend on the market. 

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