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2021 Surly Roto League


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ive never understood why people get offended at receiving shitty trade offers, when so many one-sided, aka "shitty", trades get accepted. i'm not going to give you my best offer right off the bat, and i wouldn't expect you to do the same. hg traded two closers (none named Chapman, Hader, Kimbrel, or Hendriks) for Freddie Freeman in the H2H league. if you aren't trying to win the trade by as much as possible, then what are you doing? 

also, if you've given up on this season then a)why play fantasy? serious question. if you're going to just give up when your team sucks, then why play? and b)if your team sucks and has been ravaged by injuries, don't you think that making some moves might make this more fun? 

Edited by shadow_operative
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On 6/15/2021 at 9:27 PM, Brew said:

Derka is co-managing HG’s team, so many pieces of the puzzle come together after keeping an eye on the TB thread over the years.

I do take exception with your contention that your starting pitching is stupid loaded, it’s not. You’re just churning also rans that are off to a good start which is evidenced by your WHIP/ERA place and the fact that you only lead K’s and are 2nd in QS because you are running so many starters. Hopefully, the shitty ones you drafted haven’t dug too deep a hole for you to climb out of, since you will cap out in August and then start to back slide based on your 48% QS ratio. I am curious, how many original draft picks do you have left at this point?

our 6th and 7th best SP's are Ryu and Ray. if that's not stupid deep then you and i have different definitions of stupid deep. also, genuinely curious- what does draft pick retention have to do with anything? i've been playing fantasy baseball since 1995, and if your roster at the end of june looks like the team you drafted then you either crushed the draft or you just aren't trying. although now that im looking at it, we drafted Ozzie, Arenado, Baez, Soto, Yelich, Tucker, and Cruz. is that ok with you? that's like 80% of our offense. is that a high or a low enough percentage for your liking? 

oh yeah, we drafted Burnes, Peralta, Berrios, Ryu, Díaz, and we added Trevor Rogers on April 5th. i must have missed it when we drafted all of those shitty pitchers you were referencing. 

 

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finally- i totally screwed the pooch with my H2H draft (was too busy winning the double in shaggy fantasy hoops to do draft prep 🤷🏼‍♂️) and i had the worst offense in the league until about two weeks ago. i ended up making three trades in one week, and now this is my offense:

 

DBDBCDBE-F9F4-40D7-AC6E-3A2EDA50744E.jpeg

of my entire offense i drafted three of them- Mondesi, Biggio, and Gurriel. everyone else was added or brought in via trade. my question is- why do you think that's a bad thing? you think it would be better for me to have stuck with the shitty players i drafted? i should have just given up like txhorns here? i'm just trying to make sense of your very confusing take. 

 

edit: my opening day offense:

 

5020B1E4-172D-470F-9281-264AC96B2D0F.jpeg

Edited by shadow_operative
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I countered one a couple weeks ago, the centerpiece of your trade offers were Scherzer and Buehler, but they didn't provide enough value in return.  So, I removed an SP whose use would only be matchup dependent for me and included one of the Toronto SPs and sent the trade back...by my numbers that one made us both a little bit better.  I didn't counter the other one (Diaz+ for Hendricks), because there was no way you'd take it.  Those guys are pretty close together skills wise, but Hendricks plays in a division with 3 dogshit teams, so he's got quite a bit more value fantasy value even with very little in real life.  The inclusion with Diaz was a waiver wire trash SP that I wouldn't even use.  I'd want a bat or better SP there, and you wouldn't (and shouldn't) do it...so there's not much there.

It's June.  People not panic selling to make your team better doesn't make them idiots.  My hitting is a reasonable example...between injuries and cold starts I was dead last in HR and RBI by a bunch.  It wasn't all bad luck, I didn't expect the run environment to be so muted, so in hindsight I'd draft hitters a little differently.  But spending Memorial Day selling off guys with track records for dudes with 120 good ABs would have been stupid, so I didn't.

 

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i never insinuated that "people are idiots for not panic selling." i'm just giving shit to some of the teams at the bottom of the standings for rejecting 3, 4, 7, 9 or whatever offers without even sending a counter offer. again, i don't expect you to take Tarik Skubal, but i'm definitely going to see if you will take him before i send you a better offer. that's just day 1 stuff. 

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Here is my feedback on most, if not all, of the trade offers that I have received. Not all from Derka by the way. Most of the time, I will never accept a 3 for 2 (etc) when one guys is a guy that will dumped at some point. That, in my eyes, makes it a 2 for 2. None of those have even been close to providing my team with anything to get me over the hump.

With pitching, I tend to look at the advanced stats. Maybe a bit too much. A guy could look good on paper, but when you dig deeper, they are not as attractive due to them probably coming back to reality soon enough. And there is a reason those guys are in the offer, perfect sell high opportunities.

As far as countering, I tend to look at the other persons team to see what I may like. 99.9% of the time, the only attractive pieces would involve me moving guys that I do not want to move for one reason or another. Simply put, I am not going to waste my time with a counter offer just to try to wheel and deal.

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  • 3 weeks later...
7 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

so obviously we were unfamiliar with the cap on starts, though we've tailed off a bit on that pace.  what is the cap, where is it located on the page, and how do we see our current progress?

200. At the bottom of your pitchers there should be a little note that says "view game maximums" and it will show you your current starts and projected pace. I do it on mobile, so not quite sure if it's the same on the app

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14 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

200. At the bottom of your pitchers there should be a little note that says "view game maximums" and it will show you your current starts and projected pace. I do it on mobile, so not quite sure if it's the same on the app

I've never been able to find it on the iPhone app, but I set my lineup in a web browser (usually) and it is there.

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11 hours ago, castolon said:

Brew we can only fuck with each other so many times on the trade market. The last one was a shit show

The last offer was a shit show? I offered up the higher rated player by any service you look at and a need based on your numbers, so I’m not sure how that is the case.

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The last offer was a shit show? I offered up the higher rated player by any service you look at and a need based on your numbers, so I’m not sure how that is the case.

I have no complaints at all. Mostly joking about how turner immediately went on the DL and cole gave up a million earned runs in his next start. It’s been all good since that first week
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  • 2 weeks later...

Hey Derka, 

I know that you like to play the numbers game, so here we go:

I am giving up Bo Bichette and Juerys Familia.  

Bo Bichette has been the 127th rated player based on WAR over the past 28 days hitting.  I have, Wader Franco (62nd) and Willy Adames (27th) currently holding spots at SS and 2B/SS.  Bo Bichette has the higher upside, yes, but is also dealing with a shin injury that might be touch and go.  He isn't getting playing time on my roster.  The individual that I traded with has shown that he wanted the Bichette, so it was easy to take a look at their team and find areas that I needed help.  

In that time, they all have played between 20-22 games.

Here are the stats:

OBP

Bichette - .315

Franco - .345

Adames - .355

 

HR

Bichette - 4

Franco - 3

Adames - 5

 

ISO

Bichette - .173

Franco - .215

Adames - .250

 

WRC+

Bichette - 102

Franco - 133  

Adames - 134

 

As you can see, all the stats have been trending up for the guys that I am keeping in the spot.  Bichette is not needed on my team, and my offense is in a decent spot league scoring-wise.  

 

Now let's move the pitching side.  Where I need a ton of help, and have only a few categories where I can make up big points (Saves, WHIP and K's)  Some of the K's will be worked out by getting back on track with starting pitchers up to the starting threshold since I am a bit behind there.  QS, I am probably not going to go anywhere.  

 

Past 28 days

Familia - 0 Saves, FIP of 6.33 (unlucky with an xFIP of 3.77)

 

for 

Soto - 5 Saves, FIP of 2.83 (xFIP of 2.1)

Colome - 4 saves, FIP of 3.45 (bit lucky with an xFIP of 4.67)

 

Both of the guys I am receiving are positive WAR over the same time, while Familia is at a -.2.  Both are also near the top of the number of saves over the same timeframe.  

 

Obviously, you may look at the name brand of Bichette on the surface, and not see how this benefits my team trying to make a late push.  If it goes south for me, well, I stay in 7th place.  If I can gain some spots through the added RP help, then maybe I can gain some sports and pull others down.  Early in the year, I would not have made the trade.  With 6 weeks left, both of the people in the trade are making some plays while hoping their part of the trade benefits.  Even a good chance this ends in a win-win.  

 

 

 

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you use war for fantasy stat comparisons?

Not in particular, but it is just another stat to help judge the body of work.

*To add, I have not done a great job of managing the details this season. I play a ton of DFS early in the season, and when I burned out, I stopped keeping my data points for my DFS tracker. I just updated things a few days ago, and that led me back to seeing what the hell I could do to try to make a miracle run. WAR is just a stat on the page.
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On 8/17/2021 at 2:48 PM, shadow_operative said:

yeah, so uh, to all of the people who got all upset and offended at the trade offers i sent you, go ahead and look at today's trade that was just accepted and see why i send those types of offers. Bo Bichette for two crappy closers. LOL. 

You think that exchange was OTHER people getting upset?

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  • 1 month later...
24 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

would you guys be interested in trying to get to 12 teams next year, or does 10 teams seem like a more realistic fit?

10 teams is the sweet spot for me unless you cut down on roster spots.  Unfortunately we could only get 9 this year so will start searching/posting/recruiting early next year.

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Congrats to our winner Down to Clown!  Great season!  Also congrats to Quahog Drunken Clams and the Needville Swamp Things on finishing 2nd and 3rd! 

I would tag you all but I don't feel like matching up fantasy team names to Surly names right now.  I will get winnings paid out soon to the PayPal email you used to send your buy in, likely happens tonight.

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  • 3 months later...

I really enjoy roto. It's my favorite fantasy sport even though I'm primarily a football guy. I like the daily maintaining of the lineups and roster, and I make tons of transactions to maximize my limits down to the inning. Not into head to head or any cute stuff, just something like regular 5x5ish. I don't know MLB players that deep, but I know how to play roto and the long game. I've been in a 9 team league with friends for a long time. If y'all need another give me a holler.

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