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NFL Betting 2021


VolenteHawk
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3 hours ago, Dr Fear said:

The Cards are are the way up to -20.0 against the Texans on bet online.

And there’s still some value in taking the Cards lol

im going 
Bal -6, NYG +3, Pats -7, ATL -1.5

On a NFL streak, 9-3 the last two weeks now.  
late afternoon not looking good so far.

Rams -16.5, Raiders pick, Cards -10.5 first half.  

Edited by Hook1997
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7 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

Looking to this weekend... I know the Texans suck but should the Dolphins really be favored by 7 against anyone?

I think Tyrod Taylor should be back, so probably because of that.   But yea 7 is a bit much I’d say.  

Edited by Hook1997
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If Taylor is back it will be lower, but I'm as anti Miami as they come (see my previous season win total under notes), and even I make it 6.5.  The Dolphins are regular bad, the Texans are baaaaad.

FWIW I'm 20-20, so I might as well be flipping coins if that matters to you in my handicap.

 

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If Taylor is back it will be lower, but I'm as anti Miami as they come (see my previous season win total under notes), and even I make it 6.5.  The Dolphins are regular bad, the Texans are baaaaad.
FWIW I'm 20-20, so I might as well be flipping coins if that matters to you in my handicap.
 
Texans are 4-4 ATS after the garbage time against the Rams on Sunday.1136cc99eb0715f5b10e02ba49800588.jpg
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15 hours ago, Dr Fear said:

Texans are 4-4 ATS after the garbage time against the Rams on Sunday.

The flip side is they are one more play worth of the Rams caring from being 1-5 ATS in Davis Mills starts.  But ATS record at the halfway point tells us much more about performance vs preseason expectation than it does anything predictive.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Asshole chargers killed me

Yea they fucked me big time. The real kicker was I had put in a small prop bet for a large Houston Win at 14+ because it paid 70:1. I put in some change to win $700 and looked good with 90 seconds left. Then 3 plays later the Texans fucked me on that too by letting in a garbage time TD

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3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Asshole chargers killed me

Yea they fucked me big time. The real kicker was I had put in a small prop bet for a large Houston Win at 14+ because it paid 70:1. I put in some change to win $700 and looked good with 90 seconds left. Then 3 plays later the Texans fucked me on that too by letting in a garbage time TD

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  • 11 months later...
27 minutes ago, slorch said:

KC vs JAX 47.5 under...

LOLz.  47 pts.   It's stupid how close this shit is on the regular.

It consistently blows my mind. lost a basketball over/under bet last week that was like 140 something points. Lost it by .5. 

  • Rage+1 1
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For those that watch this sort of thing, the bengals have gone from a 1 point dog on Sunday evening to a 2 point favorite this morning. 

Probably people loading up against Mahomes’ ankle. Or perhaps looking at the history of burrow vs chiefs. Regardless, hope everyone betting got in early. 

Eagles have been hovering around 2/2.5 pt favorites.

Im heavy on eagles/bengals teaser and eagles/bengals ML

  • Hook 'Em 1
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On 1/24/2023 at 9:19 AM, Enchubben said:

For those that watch this sort of thing, the bengals have gone from a 1 point dog on Sunday evening to a 2 point favorite this morning. 

Or Vegas knows more about Mahomes' ankle than most others. Which is almost always the case. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
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3 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Or Vegas knows more about Mahomes' ankle than most others. Which is almost always the case. 

certainly true. and I think Mahomes would be out this week if it were a regular season game.  Though he could barely put weight on that foot last week and was still able to make all the throws. I think they'll pump him up full of painkillers and he'll still play ok, but it does limit his moving around outside of the pocket where he's most dangerous. Probably justifies 2-3 points IMO.

FWIW - the line in my book got as high as CIN -3 yesterday, but went back down to -1 as of this morning.

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On 1/26/2023 at 10:31 AM, closetohumping said:

I’d be looking at Jamar chase props.  Chiefs don’t do well s wr1

Agreed. Also depending on your sportsbook the Pacheco rushing total looks interesting. Most books are around 50.5 yds. For some fucked up reason, my book has it at O49.5 (-140), so the reduced odds fuck that bet up. But in any case, Pacheco has cleared that number in 9 of his last 10 games. On the other side, Perine over 17.5 yds rushing is tempting as well. He's cleared that number 8 out of the last 10 games, and when they played KC earlier this year he had 106 on the ground and 49 receiving yds. Obviously Mixon didnt play that game, but based on those stats it wouldnt surprise me to see Cinci work him into the game plan enough to get 17 yds rushing. 

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Agreed. Also depending on your sportsbook the Pacheco rushing total looks interesting. Most books are around 50.5 yds. For some fucked up reason, my book has it at O49.5 (-140), so the reduced odds fuck that bet up. But in any case, Pacheco has cleared that number in 9 of his last 10 games. On the other side, Perine over 17.5 yds rushing is tempting as well. He's cleared that number 8 out of the last 10 games, and when they played KC earlier this year he had 106 on the ground and 49 receiving yds. Obviously Mixon didnt play that game, but based on those stats it wouldnt surprise me to see Cinci work him into the game plan enough to get 17 yds rushing. 

Also you would think the chiefs run Pacheco a bit more than usual with mahomes not 100%

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