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NFL Betting 2021


VolenteHawk

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Annual Disclaimer: Nobody beats the NFL.  I don't beat it, and you don't beat it.  We know this.  We are all going to lose money in this thread.  With that said, the NFL is pretty awesome and pretty fun to gamble on, so let's lose our 10 cents of vig together.

Steelers OVER 8.5 +130

 

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I read that the UNDER has hit on the first 18 games of the pre-season so far, so what do I do?  I throw a little down on the UNDER of the first game of the day, Bears-Bills.  What happens, you ask?  The OVER hits in the first half.  Why do I even try?

I had to dig out of the hole, so I bet the OVER on Packers-Jets because 32 seemed way too low.  That one hit.

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On 8/21/2021 at 7:01 PM, Assman said:

I read that the UNDER has hit on the first 18 games of the pre-season so far, so what do I do?  I throw a little down on the UNDER of the first game of the day, Bears-Bills.  What happens, you ask?  The OVER hits in the first half.  Why do I even try?

I had to dig out of the hole, so I bet the OVER on Packers-Jets because 32 seemed way too low.  That one hit.

Idk about first 18 but yea unders been stout.  Sorry about the Bears.

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Bengals UNDER 6.5 -110: I actually don't think they're going to be THAT bad but the schedule is brutal...hard division + AFC West.

Dolphins UNDER 9.5 -116: I make Miami slightly better with Fitz, which sounds crazy b/c they were 7-3 under Tua....so I had to dig into why.  Post QB switch, if you throw out the week 17 game (I know, I know but stay with me they were desperate fighting for the playoffs and abandoned the game plan), they were +9 in the other 9 Tua starts which would have been good for THIRD for the whole season.  That TO luck is unsustainable.  If you prefer more sophistication than a random dude on the internet, PFF graded him 31st.

I'm looking at two more unders, one of which would be oppo @closetohumping (Bills) and I like Titans if I can get 9.5 at a good price, but it's currently not juicy enough.

Edited by VolenteHawk
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  • 2 weeks later...

I reserve the right to stop posting these if I'm in contention later on, but I probably won't be.  The numbers vary a little by shop and static vs dynamic line rules, but I'm pretty well settled on my week 1 contest plays...

Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, Browns, Falcons

Patriots will probably also be a cash play.

Also, I found a Titans UNDER 9.5 +100 and grabbed that.  I'm done with season win totals now unless the Bills number pops.

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I'm hammering Dal -5.  Carolina is 3-0 but has beat some of the worst teams in the league.  On top of that, the most dynamic play maker in the league is out for this game.  I'm honestly surprised the spread is not bigger.

(Of course this means Carolina wins in a blowout)

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Went back to some old data, and depending on how you measure it this is my worst Q1 in the NFL ever.  Not really W-L, I've started this slow before, but generally due to losing coin flip games...this year has very little to do with luck.  I've never had bigger power rating adjustments this fast since I've been seriously handicapping the NFL (~20 years).  I've moved 6 teams by a field goal or more already, which is unprecedented.  Anyway, long way to go still.  Contest plays (8-12)...

Saints, 49ers, Broncos, Bills, Chargers

 

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